All eyes on Congress.
February 2, 2024
There is plenty of activity in the halls of Congress (for a change). Whether that activity will result in anything tangible—good or bad—for the American people remains to be seen. The landscape is complicated by the fact that House Republicans are trying to leverage their 3-vote majority to link unrelated issues—like supplemental funding for Ukraine, Israel, and immigration reform. Also linked are child tax credits, business deductions, and an increase in deductions for state and local taxes—deductions that were limited under Trump to punish taxpayers in blue states.
The common theme in these disputes is this: Democrats are seeking to advance the interests of middle-class and poor Americans and the national security of the United States. Republicans are seeking to protect the wealthiest Americans and major corporations—so long as those goals advance Donald Trump's political interests.
Let’s take a look at several issues that are on Congress’s calendar in the next week.
Child tax credit vs. tax breaks for big business.
In yesterday’s newsletter, I described the tax bill approved by the House that includes an expanded child tax credit and resurrects business deductions eliminated as part of Trump's $3.5 trillion tax cut in 2017. In my description yesterday, I buried the lead: Democrats promoted the child tax credit, and Republicans promoted the business deductions.
The child tax credits will benefit the poorest American families with children, while the business deductions will benefit companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Lockheed Martin, large pharmaceutical companies, and others.
Here's the point: At every juncture, Democrats are trying to protect the interests of the American people, while Republicans are protecting big business. While both are vital to the American economy, in a resource-constrained environment, helping middle-class and poor families should take precedence over businesses that generated $41 trillion in revenue and $2.9 trillion in profits in 2022.
Republicans are abandoning Ukraine.
Supplemental funding for Ukraine is tied to the immigration reform bill—a linkage demanded by Republicans last November to give them leverage over an issue they perceived would benefit Donald Trump. Unless and until the immigration bill is approved, the US has effectively run out of money to help fund Ukraine’s defense.
While the fate of the immigration bill is uncertain, Trump has instructed Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to kill the bill. If that happens, the fate of funding for Ukraine is unclear. Vladimir Putin couldn’t have scripted the story any better.
But—all hope is not lost for Ukraine. On Thursday, the EU released $54 billion to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia. EU approves $54 billion in Ukraine aid as Hungary drops opposition : NPR. With this contribution, the EU has maintained parity with US contributions since the inception of Russia’s war. Given that the EU and American economies are roughly equal in size, equal contributions to Ukraine’s defense is reasonable. Many Americans—especially MAGA supporters—pretend that the US is the only nation in the world supporting Ukraine. Not true.
Another possible avenue of support for Ukraine is the REPO Act, which would allow the US to seize assets of the Russian Central Bank that were frozen when Russia invaded Ukraine. Per Reuters,
The EU, United States, Japan and Canada froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Only about $5 billion to $6 billion are in the United States.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has advanced the bill for consideration by the full Senate on a 20-1 vote. Prospects for passage seem encouraging. However, the US controls only a small portion of the assets that can be seized and transferred to Ukraine. But if the US approved the seizure and transfer, it is likely that the EU, Japan, and Canada would do the same. The REPO Act is no substitute for supplemental funding by Congress, but it is a step in the right direction.
Developments in the effort to impeach Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
The House will likely vote on a resolution to impeach Secretary Mayorkas next week. On Thursday, GOP Rep. Ken Buck said he would oppose the resolution, meaning that Republicans can lose only two more votes before the resolution will fail. See HuffPost, Ken Buck Says He Opposes Impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas.
The impeachment of Secretary Mayorkas would be a sham and insult. It is part of Donald Trump's efforts to cheapen and dilute the constitutional sanction of impeachment to minimize the fact that he is the only president to be impeached twice. To that end, the good people at Lawyers Defending American Democracy (LDAD) have drafted a letter to Congress and are asking concerned citizens to sign the letter to express their opposition to the impeachment of Secretary Mayorkas. I have signed the letter.
Here is the note I received from LDAD:
Please consider joining a sign-on letter opposing the Republican House impeachment of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas .
The letter is written by Lawyers Defending American Democracy, a remarkable nonprofit group that advocates for the rule of law. You don’t need to be a lawyer to sign. You don’t need to be Latino or Jewish like Mayorkas!
Here’s why opposing this disgraceful impeachment matters.
There is no evidence of Treason, Bribery or any High crime or misdemeanor committed by Myorkas. Impeaching him is a testing ground for a fact-free impeachment of Biden.
Mayorkas is an easy early target. To adapt a phrase, "First they came for the most vulnerable, and I did not speak out.”
The impeachment represents the attack on something that keeps every one of us safe — government according to law, even in difficult conditions not of our making – like those at the border.
It’s the rule of law that they are after – it protects our safety. Please join me and hundreds of others in speaking out. Your voice matters.
People often ask what they can do to help preserve democracy. One easy way is to join others in standing up against the partisan cheapening of constitutional institutions like impeachment.
In his seminal book, On Tyranny, Timothy Snyder wrote: “It is institutions that help us to preserve decency. . . . Make them yours by acting on their behalf.”
Your voice matters.
What’s happening with Judge Engoron’s expected decision and judgment in the New York civil fraud trial?
The decision and judgment imposing civil penalties on Trump was expected by January 31. And then February 1. Now, Judge Engoron has indicated that the opinion and judgment will be released by “mid-February.”
The delay is another frustrating development in the effort to finally hold Trump to account. But in this instance, the wait may be worthwhile.
No one knows for sure what factors are responsible for the delay, but Andrew Weissmann has speculated that Judge Engoron is waiting for Trump's chief financial officer— Allen Weisselberg—to plead guilty to perjury for testimony he gave in Trump's defense in the civil fraud trial.
Per Andrew Weissmann,
Why has Judge Engoron not issued his decision on the Trump civil fraud? One reason could well be the news that the Trump chief financial officer may be pleading to lying to Judge Engoron in a way to help Trump. And the Judge is waiting for that to support his decision against DJT.
In other words, Trump's chief financial officer lied on the witness stand in defense of Trump's lies about his finances! Adding that fact to Judge Engoron’s opinion should help support a significant civil penalty against Trump—who continued his fraud through and including the civil trial.
GOP fundraising, Trump's legal costs, and trial dates.
A series of stories on Thursday highlighted the vulnerability of Trump's campaign, the ill-health of the GOP as an institution, and Trump's legal jeopardy. Fundraising does not equal votes or turnout, but it is a proxy for support. Bottom line: Fundraising by the GOP took a nose-dive while Democratic fundraising was strong. See Newsweek, Donald Trump's Fundraising Plummets and WaPo, Trump spent more than $55 million in donor money on legal fees last year, filings show.
As NBC News explained, Trump's legal fees are substantial--$50 million in donor funds that have been diverted from his campaign activities. See NBC News, Takeaways from the 2024 cash dash: Legal cases drain Trump as clash with Biden looms. Per NBC,
Campaign finance records filed Wednesday show the main super PAC supporting Trump's campaign, MAGA Inc., spent more than it raised in the last six months of 2023. [¶]
By comparison, Biden's campaign ended the year with $46 million in cash, far more than the $33 million Trump's campaign held before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
Speaking of Trump’s legal troubles, it appears that Trump's delay strategy in the documents and election interference cases is working, increasing the likelihood that the New York state hush money case will be tried first.
Trump may regret engineering his criminal liabilities so the first trial will highlight his extra-marital affair with Stormy Daniels, which took place while Melania was at home caring for their infant son, Barron Trump. See WaPo, Trump D.C. trial drops off court’s March calendar, clearing way for N.Y. case. The hush money trial is currently scheduled for March but is likely to take place during the summer—right before the Republican convention.
Is it possible that his Christian evangelical supporters won’t care about Trump's affair with an adult film actress? We already know they don’t. They crossed that bridge in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tape. But some independent voters and disaffected Republicans may care.
In a close election, marginal votes have an outsized influence. Trump's 2016 election interference—by lying on his FEC filings about hush money payments—may be a tipping point in 2024. Let’s hope so.
Concluding Thoughts.
If it appears that Republicans have been on a losing streak, you aren’t the only one who believes so. While it is not enough for us to count on missteps by Republicans, after a year of an unrelenting anti-Biden narrative by the media, it is a relief to see the media acknowledge that the GOP is a hot mess. Jennifer Rubin described the current state of affairs in her op-ed in WaPo, Opinion The GOP’s blunders take their toll.
Jennifer Rubin recounts the morass of self-inflicted injuries that are currently plaguing the GOP. She quotes Texas GOP. Rep. Chip Roy, who said the following in November on the House floor:
For the life of me, I do not understand how you can go to the trouble of campaigning, raising money, going to events, talking to people, coming to this town as a member of a party who allegedly stands for something … and then do nothing about it. One thing: I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing — one — that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!
Since, then, Roy’s colleagues in Congress have given him nothing—not one thing—that he can tell his constituents that Republicans have achieved since his speech in November. And prospects are dim that they will do anything in the next weeks or months, either. I hope I am wrong.
Rubin writes,
Republicans overwhelmingly were against Biden’s popular infrastructure bill and in favor of shutting down the government, defaulting on the debt and conducting bogus impeachment hearings that the voters do not want while opposing a tough border control bill.
Democrats can hardly believe their good fortune heading into November [2024]. Chip Roy likely will not be the only one who cannot think of a single reason to keep [Republicans] in power.
The collapse of the GOP’s political machine (such as it was) coincides with a more aggressive, professional operation by the Biden campaign. The Biden campaign's unrelenting focus on Trump's incessant mistakes, nonsense, and outrageous statements has caused the media to take notice.
And perhaps, just perhaps, the DNC is joining the fray in a helpful way. See this video of Jaime Harrison’s appearance on on Stephen Colbert’s show, Jaime Harrison: Joe Biden Said “I See You Black Folks In South Carolina. You Matter. You Count.” I was skeptical when a reader sent the link to me for review, but Jaime Harrison was an effective advocate for Joe Biden. The video is worth seven minutes, but if you only watch the first 2-1/2 minutes, you will see Harrison's central praise for Biden.
So, on this second day of February in the early primary season, we have reason for hope. No one should take anything for granted, but we should act with confidence and determination. Democrats have their issues to be sure; but Republicans are experiencing a reckoning that began when they first surrendered to Trump in 2016.
Talk to you tomorrow!
Never interrupt an enemy who is defeating himself. -- Napoleon
Read the letter…excellent and signed the petition! It is my understanding that Weisselberg is in “negotiations” about pleading guilty to perjury. The wheels are spinning now and if Judge Cannon would get out of the way, The Don can be brought down to the size of a small hamburger. Will share your newsletter, Robert!