Airborne inkblot tests

February 13, 2023

          On Sunday, US fighter jets shot down a fourth unidentified object, this time over Lake Huron. There is disagreement over whether the objects are balloons or some other aerial observation platform. US officials do not know who owns three of the objects or for what purpose they were deployed. (China claimed the first object as a high-altitude weather balloon.) The absence of information has not prevented US politicians from offering every conceivable criticism and alternative military strategy. The enigmatic balloons are functioning as an airborne inkblot test that is exposing the ignorance, ambition, and bad faith of Republican officials who care only about partisan advantage, not national security.

          Before turning to the partisan gymnastics inspired by the balloons, it is worth noting that the sudden appearance of four aerial devices of unknown provenance over the US in the span of a week raises serious questions. Is this a new phenomenon? If so, why now? If not new, why has the US tolerated (or failed to detect) the intrusions previously? The US either doesn’t know the answers to those questions or isn’t saying publicly (presumably because of a strategic advantage in keeping that information confidential.) See NYTimes, What’s Going On Up There? Theories but No Answers in Shootdowns of Mystery Craft.

          At one point over the weekend, a reporter asked an Air Force general from Northern Command if the objects could have an “extraterrestrial origin,” prompting the general to say that the US “hadn’t ruled anything out”—leaving open the possibility that the objects could possibly originate from beyond Earth. The question and answer betray an astounding lack of knowledge regarding the laws of physics and interstellar distances. National security officials quickly quashed such baseless speculation on Sunday talk shows, but the damage is done. The internet will forever memorialize the unfortunate soundbite of a US general saying that he could not rule out the possible “extraterrestrial origin” of devices clearly manufactured on Earth.

          The NYTimes interviewed an expert, former military intelligence officer Luis Elizondo, who provided the most likely (but as yet unverified) explanation:

For years, adversaries have sent low-tech gadgets into the skies above the United States, Mr. Elizondo said.

“What’s happening now is you have low-end technology being used to harass America,” he said in an interview. “It is a high-impact, low-cost way for China to do this, and the more you look up in the sky, the more you will see.”

          The last part of Mr. Elizondo’s statement may explain why we are seeing more unidentified objects: “The more you look up in the sky, the more you will see.” The heightened scrutiny caused by the first Chinese spy balloon has caused the US military to “open the aperture” (i.e., expand the field of view) for determining which “radar blips” may constitute a threat. See Juliette Kayyem on CNN, Video: Analyst thinks this is why more unidentified objects are being spotted.

          The explanations by security and intelligence experts like Elizondo and Kayyem have not stopped naïve, simplistic second-guessing by politicians, which runs from “Biden is trigger happy” to “if the US had shot down the first balloon more quickly, it wouldn’t be facing a spate of additional balloons.” See Governor Dunleavy Issues Statement on Unidentified Object Shot Down Over Alaska.

          The most unhinged response came from the most unhinged leader of the GOP House majority, Marjorie Taylor Greene. Giving her “Jewish space lasers” claim competition, she claims to have said the following to US military leaders during an intelligence briefing:

You [military leaders] sat by and allowed this Chinese spy balloon that could have contained a bioweapon, like COVID, it could have contained a nuclear bomb, an EMP [electromagnetic pulse bomb], or hypersonic missiles, like the Chinese government [has shown] weather balloons dropping hypersonic missiles.

          Greene packed so much disinformation into her statement to US military leaders that it is difficult to know where to start, but she ignores the ability of the US to gather information on the Chinese spy balloon by observation from aircraft and interception of signals intelligence. And while it is true that China is testing the delivery of missiles from high-altitude balloons, those missiles hang from the balloons on large, easily identifiable platforms—something missing from the video of the Chinese spy balloon. And there is no evidence that China has ever tested the delivery of nuclear bombs or bioweapons from balloons—an idea that sounds stupid when you say it out loud.

          While it is appropriate for the US to understand the cause of the rash of unidentified aerial objects, we should not forget that the US is testing observation balloons to fight drug trafficking. See this article from The Guardian in August 2019: Pentagon testing mass surveillance balloons across the US.

Per The Guardian,

The US military is conducting wide-area surveillance tests across six midwest states using experimental high-altitude balloons, documents filed with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) reveal. . . . Travelling in the stratosphere at altitudes of up to 65,000ft, the balloons are intended to “provide a persistent surveillance system to locate and deter narcotic trafficking and homeland security threats.”

          I hope that these episodes result in a full-scale review of all unmanned craft above the US—including drones. At the moment, it seems as though our skies are porous and under-regulated. If any of the objects shot down by US aircraft turn out to be research balloons, lots of people will have plenty of explaining to do.

Evidence of Trump’s “guilty knowledge” in attempting a coup and inciting an insurrection.

          If Trump is charged with an attempted coup and insurrection, the specific violations of the US criminal code will likely require the government to prove that Trump acted with “guilty knowledge” (or scienter) in committing those crimes. In other words, the government will likely be required to demonstrate that Trump understood he lost the election but nonetheless attempted to prevent the peaceful transfer of power. A report over the weekend suggests that Trump knew before January 6, 2021, that his claims of widespread election fraud were false.

          The Washington Post reported over the weekend that Trump paid an expert research firm—The Berkeley Research Group—to determine whether there was widespread fraud in the 2020 election. The Berkeley Research Group reported to Trump before January 6^th that it could not identify any evidence of widespread fraud. The Trump campaign concealed those findings, and Trump continued his efforts to overturn the election. See WaPo, Trump campaign paid researchers to prove 2020 fraud but kept findings secret.

          Per WaPo,

Former president Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign commissioned an outside research firm in a bid to prove electoral-fraud claims but never released the findings because the firm disputed many of his theories and could not offer any proof that he was the rightful winner of the election, according to four people familiar with the matter.

A person familiar with the findings said there were at least a dozen hypotheses that Trump’s team wanted tested.

“None of these were significant enough,” this person said. “Just like any election, there are always errors, omissions and irregularities. It was nowhere close enough to what they wanted to prove, and it actually went in both directions.”

          If special counsel Jack Smith is looking for evidence that Trump knew he lost, the research report from the highly respect Berkeley Research Group would be a good place to start. Presumably, Jack Smith is all over the details of the report—which is why someone familiar with the content of the report is leaking to the press. (To be clear, the leader could be from the Berkeley Research Group, the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee, or any of dozens of other competitors who want to see Trump taken out of the race.)

          If true, this report is very good news and increases the likelihood that Jack Smith will indict Trump on serious charges that carry lengthy prison sentences.

Trump turned over “Classified Evening Briefing” folder after subpoena.

          This story is ridiculous—but true! Special counsel Jack Smith issued a subpoena to compel Trump to turn over a file folder marked “Classified Evening Briefing” that he kept after the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s lawyer explained that Trump kept the Classified folder cover (which was empty) to cover the light coming from a phone near his bed that allegedly interfered with his sleep! See Acyn on Twitter: "Trump lawyer says Trump was using a classified folder to block the light on a phone near his bed that keeps him up at night?

          As you can see from the video clip linked above, Trump’s lawyer mocks the notion that the empty file folder has any significance. But as with other non-classified documents taken by Trump, (a) they are presidential records that belong to the US, not to Trump; and (b) the folder may contain fingerprints that reveal who handled a file folder that once contained classified documents.

          Trump’s continued refusal to turn over documents voluntarily is why special counsel Jack Smith should indict Trump for obstruction of justice relating to Trump’s theft of defense secrets.

Trump family ties to Saudi Arabia and Prince Muhammed bin Salman.

          It is easy to lose track of the fact that Saudi Arabia paid Jared Kushner and Donald Trump billions in “thank you” gifts almost immediately after Trump and Kushner departed the Oval Office. Those payments likely constitute the largest political corruption scandal in our nation’s history but receive little attention. Several readers sent me links to a WaPo story that re-examines the payments from the Saudis to the Trump family immediately after their departure from the White House. See WaPo, After helping prince’s rise, Trump and Kushner benefit from Saudi funds.

          The article is worth reading in full, but here is an opening paragraph to whet your interest:

The day after leaving the White House, Kushner created a company that he transformed months later into a private equity firm with $2 billion from a sovereign wealth fund chaired by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

          It is unclear whether anyone is investigating Trump and Kushner for this aspect of their corruption. But regardless of whether the DOJ decides to investigate the financial ties between the Trumps and the Saudis, we should not forget the biggest political corruption scandal in our nation’s history.

Looking for an engagement opportunity in 2023? Consider The States Project / Giving Circles.

          It would be easy to drift away from engagement in 2023 because it “seems” like an “off-cycle” year. Easy, but a mistake. The time to prepare the ground for 2024 is 2023—and one of the best ways to do so is to join The States Project  / Giving Circles. The States Project focuses on winning governing majorities in the state legislatures—a necessity that has come into sharper focus in the last three election cycles.

          The States Project has created something called “Giving Circles,” which are groups of dedicated citizens like you who combine their time, talent, and resources to help flip and preserve Democratic majorities in state legislatures. Hundreds of readers of this newsletter joined giving circles for the 2022 midterms and gave rave reviews for the sense of community, connection, and effectiveness of Giving Circles. A summary video of The States Project / Giving Circles is here: Meet The States Project!

          A reader (Diane K.) sent this description of important elections in 2023 that can use our help:

This year our sights turn to Virginia, one of only two states with an off-year election in November.   

Republicans have a two-vote majority in the VA House, and Democrats have a two-vote majority in the VA Senate. This is Glenn Youngkin territory, so keeping the Senate and flipping the House are critically important and achievable. If we lose our majority in the Senate, Governor Youngkin will try to pass an abortion ban and roll back much of the good legislation that has happened there over the past several years with a Democratic Senate. We can’t let that happen!

          If you would like to view a recording of a recent Giving Circle meeting with a presentation by Melissa Walker (Director), email Diane at dkessel2@comcast.net.  

Concluding Thoughts.

          My Managing Editor and I will be in Alaska later this week and next. If any readers would like to meet us for coffee in Anchorage (2/16 at NOON) or Fairbanks (2/19 at 1:30 PM), send an email to rbhubbell@gmail.com with the subject line “ALASKA.”

          I continue to be buoyed by the strong performance of Democrats at the revenge oversight hearings being conducted by House Republicans. Jennifer Rubin wrote about the emergence of strong Democratic voices in the revenge committees in her op-ed,  Democrats are turning the tables on MAGA inquisitors - The Washington Post. Rubin writes,

MAGA Republicans in charge of House committees are having a difficult time conducting their inquests into made-up scandals. That’s because savvy Democrats are effectively turning the tables to use the committees against Republicans.

Democrats came to these hearings prepared and focused. They not only eviscerated GOP conspiracy theories but also did a bang-up job exposing Republicans as the ones who have “weaponized” the government.

          I wrote last week about the brilliant examination and comments by Rep. Jamie Raskin. Rubin links to a video of Raskin and first-year Representative Dan Goldman; she also praises the skillful examination by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. What is significant about that list is that it represents a second wave of skilled examiners and passionate speakers who have picked up the standard after Kevin McCarthy sidelined Adam Schiff and Eric Swalwell.

          Like Joe Biden’s counter-offensive in the State of the Union defanged the GOP jeering, Democrats in the House are turning the revenge hearings into a dud and embarrassment for Republicans—a fact that has not escaped the notice of Fox News, as I noted last week.

          It says something positive about the Democratic electorate that their first-year class includes people like Dan Goldman—and fighters like Jamie Raskin and Ocasio-Cortez. Our bench is deep, and our prospects are good. With a bit of luck, Democrats may turn the revenge hearings into a net positive for democracy, Democrats, and the American people!

          Talk to you tomorrow!