In classical physics, predicting the motion of three related bodies in space is impossible because the calculations are maddeningly complex. The so-called “three-body problem” has resisted efforts to find a general solution since Sir Isaac Newton first considered it in 1687. The unsolvable problem has frustrated physics students and Nobel laureates for over three centuries.
Democrats are experiencing their own version of the unsolvable three-body problem. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that Rep. Adam Schiff told a group of donors at a fundraiser, “I think if [Biden] is our nominee, I think we lose And we may very, very well lose the Senate and lose our chance to take back the House.” (I don’t know if Adam Schiff actually made those statements, but the story has been out for fourteen hours, and Rep. Schiff has not commented on it.)
The political problem presented by Rep. Schiff’s statements involve three groups: party leaders, candidate Biden, and the party faithful. They are three-bodies whose fates and fortunes are inextricably bound together by unseen political forces.
To be clear, I am a big supporter of Adam Schiff. He carried the nation on his shoulders during some of its darkest days. He has been and will continue to be a steadfast defender of democracy. He is a man of integrity, compassion, and decency. I will continue to support him in all his endeavors. Still, his statements left me and my wife heartbroken.
Telling Democratic Party faithful that the party will go down to defeat in November if the incumbent president and presumptive nominee is on the ballot undermines the electoral prospects of Joe Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot. To be clear, predicting defeat is different than saying President Biden should step aside to enhance Democratic electoral prospects.
As in the three-body problem, those thoughts are inextricably intertwined in ways that defy easy solution. Choosing which of those two messages to emphasize is something that should be easy for an experienced politician like Adam Schiff. He made the wrong choice.
Two of those bodies, President Biden and the Democratic party faithful, are working every day to win in 2024 by seeking to boost turnout, register new voters, and persuade voters on the fence that the only rational path forward is to elect Joe Biden.
He is, after all, our president and presumptive nominee, and will continue to be so unless and until he steps aside. He has said he won’t, and the feasibility of him doing so is nearly as impossible as is finding a solution to the three-body problem in physics.
To tell the Democratic faithful that “we are likely to lose the presidency, the House, and the Senate” if Joe Biden remains on the ticket raises the hard question of why those volunteers should continue to do anything in the face of impending disaster.
If Joe Biden remains our nominee—and there is every reason to believe he will be—how can any Democratic party leader who has equivocated about or opposed Joe Biden’s status as nominee effectively campaign for him after he is nominated?
The Democratic “three-body problem” isn’t about Adam Schiff. It is about how the Democratic Party has a discussion in a responsible manner and how it decides when it is time to call the question. It is about how Democratic leaders writ large can credibly rally the party faithful if they tell donors in public and private settings they have lost hope.
As I have written before, it is entirely legitimate for Democrats to consider (and re-consider) whether Biden should be the nominee. The question of “how” that conversation takes place is the issue. Trying to weaken Biden so he is unable to run and then hoping to identify, nominate, and fund a replacement candidate in three weeks is the worst possible strategy. (To get the Democratic nominee on the ballot in all fifty states, Democrats must choose that nominee by August 7 to meet Ohio’s 90-day certification requirement.)
President Biden would take phone calls from dozens of Democratic leaders: former President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, Adam Schiff, and more. As Josh Marshall wrote yesterday in Talking Points Memo,
If members of Congress want to replace Biden on the ticket, they can. They need to get together and do it. If not, then drop the idea and move on.
The “back-channel” leaks directed at Biden seem to be a sign that there is not a consensus in the Democratic caucus to ask Biden to withdraw as the candidate. If so, in the words of Josh Marshall, “Drop the idea and move on.”
The discussion is made more difficult because of information—and disinformation—about polling. I am not going to review the competing narratives, but most responsible analysts say that the race remains competitive. But those seeking to overthrow Biden are claiming that Biden is losing in the polls and must withdraw now.
For example, Rep. Jared Huffman said, “If the election were held today, [Biden] would get crushed.” Then it’s a good thing the election isn’t being held today. Rep. Huffman seems to believe that there is nothing Democrats can do to change the current state of the race. If Huffman truly believes that effort is meaningless, perhaps Huffman can explain to hundreds of thousands of grassroots volunteers why they are engaged in the backbreaking work of canvassing, calling, texting, and post-carding to promote Democratic candidates, including those who are behind in the polls. Does Huffman believe that volunteer effort is pointless? If so, why would anyone volunteer to help elect Huffman?
The ongoing public discussion (including deliberate leaks) stands in stark contrast to the unity of Republicans on Tuesday evening at their convention. Former Trump rivals “Bird brain” Nikki Haley, “Meatball” Ron DeSantis, and “Little” Marco Rubio are giving speeches praising Trump and attacking Biden. Democrats, on the other hand, are leaking to the NYTimes that “Biden can’t win.” (I am not suggesting Rep. Schiff leaked his comments.)
What does this confusion mean for the backbone of the Democratic Party—grassroots volunteers? Even as those groups struggle internally with the question of Biden’s candidacy, they have not lost focus. They continue their difficult work of person-to-person politics despite being taken for granted, dismissed, and told that their efforts cannot change the polls. Bless each and every volunteer who refuses to quit, who refuses to be told their work does not matter, and who holds on to hope as a moral choice in a chaotic landscape.
When Russian opposition leader Alexie Navalny was asked shortly before his death what message he wanted to convey to young people in Russia, he said, “You are not allowed to give up.” Navalny was speaking to us, as well. We are not allowed to give up—not because we have no other choice, but because those who came before us did not give up.
Yes, the news environment is chaotic, and Trump seems to be getting every lucky break while Joe Biden is beset by problems. But we are not allowed to give up—because we are the living embodiment of the sacrifice and dedication of those who paved the way for us during times that were even more difficult and challenging than those we face today. All we have to do is show up and vote to defend democracy.
I support Joe Biden and am working to re-elect him. I hope you will respect my decision and the decision of others who are acting on their principles and beliefs. Likewise, if you choose to pursue a different path, I respect your decision. But I urge you to act, not merely criticize. As a practical matter, this decision will be foreclosed in three weeks—whether we like it or not.
Finally, to Democratic leaders who doubt or oppose Joe Biden, we need you. At some point, there can be no daylight between what you say in private and public. You are not permitted to give up. Like it or not, you are leaders with a moral responsibility to help defeat the greatest threat to democracy in 75 years. If Joe Biden is our nominee despite your doubts and fears, you must find the moral courage to put those doubts and fears aside to lead the voters who placed their trust in you. Rise to the moment! Your constituents are doing so—and are waiting for you to join them in the most important battle of our lives.
More on Judge Cannon’s decision to dismiss the defense secrets case
Professor Laurence Tribe and former prosecutor Dennis Aftergut have published an analysis of Judge Cannon’s order dismissing the federal indictment against Trump for unlawful retention of defense secrets. See Tribe and Aftergut in The Guardian, Aileen Cannon has taken the sledgehammer to the rule of law. Their article takes a much deeper dive into the opinion’s flawed premises and conclusions than did my brief analysis yesterday. For those interested in the legal analysis, I highly recommend the entire article for your review.
To whet your appetite, I include the following from the analysis by Tribe and Aftergut:
Only someone determined to reach that conclusion could have written what Cannon concocted. To decide that Congress never gave the attorney general authority to appoint a special counsel, she first had to set aside the landmark holding underpinning the 1974 Nixon Tapes case. She wrongly dismissed as mere “dictum” – chatter she was free to ignore – its essential conclusion that the Watergate special prosecutor who demanded the tapes was lawfully appointed.
She was wrong from the start. To get where she was determined to go, she had to set aside as irrelevant the flawless 2019 ruling of the US court of appeals for the District of Columbia which followed Nixon. That decision, the appellate court correctly concluded, had unanimously held that Congress, in enacting the very statutes Cannon found wanting here, had “vested in the Attorney General … the power to appoint subordinate officers to assist him in the discharge of his duties”.
Opportunities for reader engagement
Fundraiser for Joe Biden with Robert Hubbell and Virginia McGregor
I will host a Today’s Edition reader fundraiser for Joe Biden on Thursday, July 18, 2024, at 8:00 p.m. Eastern /5:00 p.m. Pacific.
Joe Biden needs money to run his campaign in 2024, but he also needs small-dollar donors to demonstrate to the doubters that Democrats have Joe Biden’s back. Suggested donations start at $25 and go up from there.
To date, we have about 700 readers signed up for the event. I urge you to join the event to show your support for Joe Biden! It would be fantastic to get 1,000 people or more to listen to a timely discussion with DNC Treasurer Virginia McGregor about the state of the race. Please help spread the word!
Click here to sign up for Today's Edition Fundraiser for Joe Biden
Big Tent USA
On Wednesday, July 17 at 7:00 pm ET, BigTentUSA and Katie Couric Media are honored to host a conversation between Richard Haass and Katie Couric. Given the assassination attempt on Former President Trump, Haass will share his perspective on how the threat of domestic instability and political violence could impact the world order. Haass will discuss key geopolitical events, including the Russia/Ukraine war, the war in the Middle East, concerns about the relationship between the United States and China, and of course, the U.S. election in November.
Please use this link to register!
BigTentUSA is a moderate, inclusive, and collaborative community empowering citizens to take action to protect democracy, defend women’s rights, and protect our children. Join our free educational series of events and our calls to action detailed and updated regularly on our website.
Airlift supports voter protection in Michigan
Want to turn your anxiety into action? Join Airlift Tuesday, July 23, 5:00 PM Pacific /8:00 p.m. Eastern for our Live From the Frontlines program: MIchigan: Protecting the People's Vote.
Our special guest will be Jocelyn Benson, Michigan/ Secretary of State. Come learn about what is being done to protect voters and poll workers and counteract AI misinformation.
Jocelyn Benson will be joined by Art Reyes of We the People Action Fund, whose organizing has been absolutely crucial in flipping the state legislature and turning out the vote in hard-to-reach communities throughout Michigan. We the People was instrumental in fighting back against Michigan's GOP's attempts to disenfranchise Black and Brown voters and overturn the election results in 2020.
Although this is a fundraiser for We the People - Michigan, you do not need to donate to participate. Register here for an inspiring hope-filled program.
Concluding Thoughts
I spent the day talking to candidates, party organizers, and grass-roots leaders. It was confidence inspiring. One grassroots leader told me he attended a national conference of grassroots organizations over the weekend. He expected the various groups to be locked in internal disagreements over Joe Biden’s candidacy. He saw none of that. Instead, he saw groups dedicated to winning, whose attitude was, “Tell us who is on our ticket, and we will make it happen.”
The grassroots haven’t given up. They are hunkering down, preparing to defend democracy as only they can. We the people, taking charge! If that doesn’t give you confidence, nothing will!
Stay strong!
Talk to you tomorrow!
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Post Script: The Crescent Nebula, 5,000 light years from Earth, 25 light years across. I chose this photo becuase it features three stars in the foreground that suggest the “three-body problem” in physics. Taken on 7/15/24 in Los Angeles, CA. Two hour exposure.
Up early as I am on vacation in Italy. My heart sunk as I read the NYT headline about Biden’s increasing isolation and saw the quotes from Adam Schiff. How glad I was to find the you were addressing that very topic in today’s edition. Thank you for affirming my initial response to the article. It will come down to us. The grassroots. We have to dig in and do the heavy lifting. Change the narrative and move forward. The debate is the blip. Let it go!!
I have read more than once that 538 has done 1000 simulations and 51% of the time, Biden gets to 270. It’s not over. I also saw today, though, that there is some kind of letter circulating among Democratic leaders asking that the virtual roll call be postponed to allow for more discussion. It’s so harmful at this point! Especially when no name emerges, at least not publicly, that they propose really could win. In the meantime, Biden is rockin’ every appearance.