A reflection on the midterms.

September 8, 2022.

Concluding Thoughts.

          You are not confused! I am starting this newsletter with “Concluding Thoughts” because there is a tiny break in the news cycle, which allows us to reflect on the midterms. We are slightly more than two months (63 days) before Americans vote on thousands of elected offices at every level of self-governance: school boards, city and county councils, sheriffs, election officers, state legislators, governors, secretaries of state, and both chambers of Congress.

          Although the congressional races occupy most of the media’s attention, we have learned—through bitter experience—that MAGA Republicans seek to undermine the rule of law at every level of our democracy. We cannot leave any race uncontested, we cannot leave any new votes on the table, and we cannot ignore any persuadable voter. That is a tall task, indeed.

          And yet, we have reason to be hopeful. Defying long odds and hoary conventional wisdom, Biden and congressional Democrats maneuvered legislative victories with the barest of majorities. Inflation slowed, gas prices dropped, and Joe Biden unleashed his fighting spirit. Biden is on track to be the first president since Harry Truman whose approval rating increased between January and October of a mid-term election year. See Roll Call, Biden on pace to buck history. Biden’s improvement is modest—4%—but it is both historic and remarkable. As I said, we have reason to be hopeful.

          As Biden recovered his stride, Republicans eliminated reproductive liberty from the Constitution, criminalized abortion, launched a culture war on LGBTQ people, exalted white supremacy, promoted QAnon conspiracies, attacked educators, glorified weapons of war, plotted a second coup, and steadfastly supported a president accused of stealing national defense secrets for unknown reasons not susceptible of an innocent explanation. And Trump successfully promoted extremist candidates in GOP primaries who, predictably, appeal to MAGA extremists but not to persuadable Independents. 

         None of the above guarantees victory for Democrats. Republicans spent decades erecting structural barriers to free and fair elections and replacing the “will of the people” with the “size of the checkbook.” And the electorate is evenly divided in many states, a fact that reinforces an anti-democratic bias against populous states that was a necessary concession to secure the passage of the Constitution in 1789. We live under the unfairness of that bargain today.

          Six months ago, the media was predicting doom for Democrats. Many Democrats mistakenly believed the media’s narrative at the time. Now, the media has adopted the “counternarrative” that Republicans are in trouble. Democrats should not make the mistake of believing the media’s current “spin.” Whether Democrats win or lose in the midterms will be decided by what they do in the next 63 days. Nothing is determined. The future is open to every possibility. We can affect the outcome, but to do so, we must be relentless, dedicated, and fearless.

          We are in the thick of the fight. Anxiety and worry are luxuries we cannot afford because they distract and exhaust us. If you find your thoughts drifting to imagined fears, pivot to action—which is the antidote to anxiety.

          There are two other attributes we must embrace as we approach the midterms: realism and resilience. The midterms will be a hard-fought battle, but they are only the beginning of a generational struggle to which we must dedicate ourselves. We must be prepared on November 8, 2022, to win, lose, or draw—and then start over again on November 9th without regard to the outcome. Neither victory nor defeat will be permanent. Only by constancy and dedication will we prevail over the long-term.

          As always, we have every reason to be hopeful but no reason to be complacent!

A moment of decency and normalcy at the White House.

          The official portraits of former President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama were unveiled at the White House on Wednesday. Trump skipped the tradition of unveiling the portraits of his predecessor, just like he skipped Joe Biden’s Inauguration. But for a single moment on Wednesday, normalcy and decency returned to the White House as two families came together in mutual admiration and celebration of America. It was a sweet moment. A video excerpt is here: Unveiling of presidential portrait.

Steve Bannon to be indicted in New York.

         Steve Bannon was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s corrupt pardons. Bannon was indicted on federal charges in 2020 for defrauding contributors to a “Go Fund Me” campaign to “build the wall” Trump promised in his 2016 campaign. Two of Bannon’s co-defendants pleaded guilty to the charges, and a third faced a jury trial that ended in a mistrial. Bannon is expected to surrender at a court hearing in Manhattan on Thursday morning. He released a statement saying that the charges were “phony” and “they will have to kill me first” before he “stops fighting” the case. See Washington Post, Steve Bannon indicted, will turn himself in Thursday.

          For the tens of millions of Americans frustrated by the fact that most of Trump’s criminal cronies seem to escape justice, this is a welcome development. As noted in yesterday’s newsletter, efforts to hold criminals accountable yield unexpected results. Here, all indications are that the New York indictment will mirror the federal indictment against Bannon that Trump rendered moot with a pardon.

          New York prosecutors will likely seek the cooperation of Bannon’s co-conspirators, who pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Whether they can be compelled to testify against Bannon is a complicated question and depends on many factors, including the terms of their plea agreement with federal prosecutors. If anyone has access to relevant information or insight into the question, I know that readers are anxious to learn more about the prospects for a conviction of Bannon.

GOP’s culture war is backfiring in approach to midterms.

          The GOP pandered to its MAGA-extremist base during the primary season. They gloated over the elimination of reproductive liberty, gleefully criminalized abortion, and launched a culture war on LGBTQ people. In ways large and small, each of those extremist positions is coming back to hurt the GOP. Here is a roundup of relevant stories:

          Politico ran a story with the headline, ‘They’re getting killed among women’: Skeptical female voters stand in way of GOP Senate. Per Politico:

          [P]ublic and internal polling data, suggest that the GOP’s struggle to attract women voters may turn out to be the biggest obstacle standing between the party and a potential Senate majority in 2023. A Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday showed that abortion was the single issue most likely to drive respondents to vote this fall, above inflation. And 52 percent of white suburban women say they would support a Democratic candidate in the election, the poll found, while only 40 percent said they would vote for the Republican.

          Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is attempting to force a vote on the Respect for Marriage Act, which would require states to recognize same-sex marriages. See ABC News, Schumer says Senate will vote on bill to codify same-sex marriage. Passage of the Respect for Marriage Act is an urgent necessity given Justice Thomas’s open invitation to conservative groups to challenge the Supreme Court’s decision recognizing a constitutional right to same-sex marriages.

          Despite the fact that Americans overwhelmingly support recognition of same-sex marriages, it is not clear that Republicans will find ten votes to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. Recently, Senator Ron Johnson walked-back his tepid support for the bill after religious conservators in Wisconsin jumped all over Johnson for deviating from religious orthodoxy on the question of same-sex marriage. See MSNBC, Wisconsin’s Johnson reverses course on Respect for Marriage Act.

          And in Michigan, Republicans are attempting to keep an initiative off the November ballot that would inscribe reproductive liberty in the state’s constitution. They are claiming that the font size and typographical spacing of the initiative disqualifies consideration of an initiative signed by more than 750,000 voters in Michigan. See Talking Points Memo, GOPers Are Blocking Michigan Abortion Ballot Measure Over Complaints About… Word Spacing.

          The cynical move in Michigan flies in the face of the ruling in Dobbs, which claimed that women “are not without political or electoral power” because they can influence the issue by “voting” . . .  except when Republicans prevent women (and men) from voting on the question of reproductive liberty altogether! The ballot initiative in Michigan will pass—either in 2022 or during the next election cycle. But the bad faith of Republicans on the state canvassing board will turn more women against GOP candidates.

Concluding Thoughts (Part II).

          While writing the first part of this newsletter, I thought about the long-term nature of our struggle. I wondered what a president might say during an inaugural speech fifty years in the future. Here is what I hope that speech would say about our efforts to preserve democracy:

          The reason our democracy endured and prevailed is that selfless Americans did not lose faith during the dark days of MAGA extremism. We remain a free people because our predecessors did not relent even when all seemed lost. They continued the fight despite voter suppression and a reactionary Supreme Court. They were undeterred by threats of violence. They endured in the face of efforts to subvert the Constitution and overturn free and fair elections. They pursued justice against traitors and thieves and faithless servants of democracy.

          We stand on their shoulders because their faith in America abided for decades when the future of democracy seemed in doubt. Today, the future of democracy is secure, and we have them to thank for their constancy and tireless dedication to the promise of America. They did not falter, and neither shall we. We must follow in their footsteps as we redeem democracy anew for our generation—and for those that follow.

          Let’s all do our best to help make that future inaugural address a reality!

          Talk to you tomorrow!