A new signal in the noise.

May 17, 2023

          With fifteen calendar days before the US runs out of cash to pay its current obligations, the questions of “whether, how, and when” Congress will raise the debt ceiling remain unclear. The President and congressional leaders are engaged in daily negotiations and competing press conferences that hint at progress but provide few details. The scant details that are disclosed suggest no progress has been made in closing the gap between the parties.

          The situation is even more confusing because of the media’s inconsistent reporting on the negotiations. President Biden always said that he would negotiate over the budget but not the debt ceiling. He also always agreed that budget negotiations could proceed on a parallel track with a “clean bill” to raise the debt ceiling. Some believed that formulation was “too clever by half,” while others said it recognized the realities of divided control in Congress.

          I don’t know what is happening in the debt ceiling negotiations or whether they will be successful. I don’t think anyone else does either, despite positive statements from both sides in the last forty-eight hours. The fact that parallel negotiations are unfolding as Biden said they would has split the media into two camps: One side focuses on “progress” in averting a crisis, while the other describes Biden as having “caved” on his promise not to negotiate over the debt ceiling. See the following:

• AP News, Debt limit progress as Biden, McCarthy name top negotiators to avert national default.

• Politico, Biden appoints 2 additional top aides to try and get to the finish line on debt ceiling talks.

• The Atlantic, Biden Has Already Caved on the Debt Ceiling.

• The Washington Post, Will Biden cave to GOP demands as debt ceiling deadline approaches?

          The New York Times played the story down the middle, noting that both sides want a deal while acknowledging that no deal is at hand: NYTimes, Biden and McCarthy Show Optimism on Debt Ceiling but Remain Far Apart.

           According to the Times, the Biden administration has conceded that the debt ceiling and budget are connected. Per the Times,  

The meeting [on Tuesday] also appeared to wipe away any pretense by Democrats that they would accept only a clean debt limit increase without conditions from House Republicans. For weeks, Mr. Biden has maintained that negotiating over cuts must not be a condition for raising the limit and avoiding what could be a catastrophic default.

But on Tuesday, both Democratic leaders from New York, Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, and Representative Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader, told reporters at the White House that passing a bipartisan bill in both chambers was the only way forward.

“Hakeem and I are committed to getting that bipartisan bill done,” Mr. Schumer said. “We will not sacrifice our values,” he added. “They’ll probably not sacrifice their values. But we’ll have to come together on something that can avoid default. Default is a disaster.”

          The “happy talk” by Schumer is worth nothing at this point. Until the parties agree on something—which has yet to happen—talk is cheap. Still, Schumer’s signal that Democrats may agree to concessions provoked strong criticism among the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. See Business Insider, AOC: Biden Compromising With GOP on Debt Ceiling Is 'Profoundly Destructive'.

          Rep. Ocasio-Cortez’s point is that if you negotiate with terrorists, you encourage more terrorism. That is a point that Paul Krugman agrees with in his op-ed in NYTimes, Opinion | How Biden Blew It on the Debt Ceiling. Krugman writes,

Many people have pointed out that [negotiating over the debt ceiling] sets a terrible precedent, that having seen that extortion works, Republicans will engage in it again and again. Even these concerns, however, seem to me to be taking too long a view. Now that Republicans see what seems to be an administration on the run, there’s every reason to expect them to keep escalating their immediate demands — quite possibly to the point where no deal is possible.

          I agree with Krugman. Negotiating over the debt ceiling is a terrible precedent that may embolden Republicans to the point that no deal is achievable. At which point, Biden should simply assert that the debt ceiling is inconsistent with his obligations under the Constitution to “take care” that the laws are faithfully executed and that the debt of the US is not to be questioned.

          I again urge readers of this newsletter to review the compelling arguments regarding the unconstitutionality of the debt ceiling as explained by Robert Hockett in Forbes, Six Legal Reasons the Federal Budget Is Its Own ‘Debt Ceiling’ - and ‘Floor’. For a contrary view (with which I disagree), see Michael Connolly in NYTimes, Opinion | The Case for Violating the Debt Limit Is Dangerous Nonsense.

          So, we are not out of the woods, and it is not clear who—if anyone—has blinked. Biden should hang tough and force Congress to do its job—authorize borrowing to cover spending it has already mandated. One hundred percent of the blame for a debt default belongs to Congress—so it should prevent that potential disaster ASAP.

Good news! Democrat Donna Deegan is elected mayor of Jacksonville, Florida.

          Jacksonville is the largest city in Florida. Democrat Donna Deegan was elected mayor of Jacksonville by four-percentage points over her rival—DeSantis-endorsed Republican Daniel Davis. See Politico, Dems beat DeSantis-endorsed candidate in Florida’s biggest city.

          Deegan’s victory could be the tipping point in overcoming Ron DeSantis’s attempt to convert Florida into a fascist state. Per Newsweek,

Her victory means Democrats flipped the mayor's office in Florida's most populous city, which has historically leaned conservative, resulting in a major victory for the party. She will be the second Democrat to hold the seat since the 1990s. Several Democrats took to Twitter to celebrate the victory.

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg tweeted: "So amazing, @DonnaDeegan with a huge win in the heart of DeSantis country! Dems just keep winning, grabbing more political real estate. Thanks to everyone who supported Donna and worked to make this happen - big win tonight!"

          I know that many readers of this newsletter responded to the call to support Donna Deegan. Thank you for supporting her through donations and GOTV efforts like postcards and letters. Check out Simon Rosenberg’s Hopium Chronicles on Wednesday for a full rundown of Deegan’s victory.

          Democrats have been on a winning streak in special elections and off-year regular elections since the 2022 midterms. Deegan’s victory (and others) should give Democrats renewed confidence heading into 2024!

          Post-script: As the NYTimes noted on Tuesday evening, DeSantis was 0-2 in his election endorsements. He stuck his foot into the Kentucky GOP gubernatorial primary, backing a candidate running against a Trump-backed candidate. DeSantis’s candidate lost—big time. Per the Times,

A day after he swooped into the Republican primary for Kentucky governor with a last-minute endorsement — a move that turned the race into an obvious proxy fight between himself and former President Donald J. Trump — Mr. DeSantis watched his chosen candidate lose in a landslide to the Trump-backed rival.

          Over the weekend, DeSantis told voters in Iowa, “We must reject the culture of losing that has impacted our party in recent years.” Good advice, Ron. You should reflect on that message as you practice smiling in a way that does not look like you are in excruciating pain.  

Is CNN losing viewership because of its town hall with Trump?

          CNN broadcast its town hall with Trump on Wednesday of last week. That program outraged viewers of CNN and provoked calls for a boycott. On Friday evening, CNN’s primetime programming fell to fourth place—behind Newsmax. See The Daily Beast, CNN Loses to Newsmax in Primetime Ratings Two Days After Trump Town Hall.

          Ratings were down across the board at CNN, including Anderson Cooper. Per the NYPost,

Friday’s edition of the Cooper-hosted “AC360” at 8 p.m. drew 447,000 viewers, well below his usual average.

The ratings just kept getting worse throughout the night, with just 293,000 tuning in for “Whole Story with Anderson” at 9 p.m. and 263,000 for “Who’s Talking to Chris Wallace” — the lowest-rated hour since the show launched on CNN in September, according to according to Mediaite.

CNN’s rivals at Fox News won the primetime battle, averaging 1.44 million viewers, while MSNBC had a 1.08 million.

          It is too early to tell if the ratings drop-off is permanent. But if it is, the correlation between the town hall and the ratings drop could not be clearer: The decision to cheerlead for Trump caused CNN to drop to fourth place among cable news networks. Viewers have spoken with their feet—or their remote controls—to tell CNN that its promotion of a twice impeached, indicted, coup-plotting sexual abuser was a bridge too far.

Beware of new media outlets promising “fair and balanced” reporting.

          People out to make a buck recognize that cable news consumers are exhausted by the partisanship at every outlet—even the good ones! So, several new media outlets are launching with the promise that they will deliver news that is (allegedly) fair, balanced, and devoid of partisan viewpoints. The latest entry into this market is The Messenger, which promotes itself as “an alternative to a national news media [that] has come under the sway of partisan influences.”

          Sadly, The Messenger’s opening act was a fawning interview with Donald Trump that adroitly managed to avoid any of the legitimate controversies swirling around Trump. Instead, the interview simply gave Trump ample runway to promote his 2024 campaign and dump on Ron DeSantis. See Mother Jones, With a Softball Interview of Trump, “The Messenger” Launches by Legitimizing Extremism. The interview is like the CNN town hall but without Kaitlan Collins asking pesky questions.

          Per Mother Jones, The Messenger’s “down the middle” soft-ball approach does not work when interviewing an extremist:

But when this down-the-middle approach is applied to a political extremist, the result is not objective journalism but the amplification and legitimization of extremism—and that can threaten honest political discourse and even democracy itself. With its initial offering, Finkelstein is sending the message that the Messenger is not up to its self-proclaimed task of healing the nation’s political discourse. It may even be part of the problem.

          So, don’t fall for the hype. If the velvet-glove treatment of Donald Trump is any indication, The Messenger’s faux desire to avoid alleged “partisanship” will simply launder Trump's extremism through a news outlet that wrongly proclaims itself to be reliable and neutral.

Concluding Thoughts.

          In the last few days, North Carolina and Montana have instituted bans that limit women's reproductive liberty at twelve and fifteen weeks. Florida has passed a six-week ban contingent on a court upholding its current fifteen-week ban. The efforts to further restrict the already limited rights of women are upsetting and dispiriting. But they coincide with a string of victories by women candidates seeking to protect women's reproductive liberty—including Justice Janet Protasiewicz in Wisconsin and Donna Deegan in Florida.

          In their desperation to outrun the inevitable demise of their party, Republicans have overplayed their hands and are imposing extreme limitations that are out of step with the beliefs of the vast majority of Americans. Republicans began to pay the price in the 2022 midterms. As states like Florida, North Carolina, and Montana impose ever more restrictive bans, Democratic candidates are winning in areas previously dominated by Republicans.

          Tonight, there is a new “signal in the noise” of American politics. Her name is Donna Deegan, and her victory augers well for Democratic prospects in 2024. More than ever, we have good reason to be optimistic but no reason to be complacent.

          Talk to you tomorrow!