A moment of truth?
July 1, 2025
As I write this newsletter on Monday evening, the fate of the reconciliation bill remains uncertain. Over the weekend, only two Republican Senators--Thom Tillis and Rand Paul—declared their opposition to the bill, while a handful of other Republican Senators haven’t committed. They include the usual suspects who always seem to cave—Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. But a handful of other Senators—Lee, Johnson, Lummis, and Scott—want further cuts to Medicaid before they will sign onto the cruelest bill in the Senate’s history.
There is still time to make your voice heard! Even if you have called your Representatives and Senators before, do so again! See 5 Calls.org, which has word scripts and easy-to-access telephone numbers for your congressional representatives. Also, check out this excellent site from FieldTeam6, Please Grow A Spine! (“Let’s Get Loud! Call Your Electeds!”)
The New York Times has prepared a helpful summary that shows just where the money is going—tax cut extensions and defense—and where it is coming from — Medicaid, healthcare, food assistance, and student loans. See NYTimes, A List of Nearly Everything in the Senate G.O.P. Bill, and How Much It Would Cost or Save (Accessible to all.)
The NY Times article is a helpful summary to have at hand when you call your congressional representatives.
On Monday evening, Senate Democrats are offering amendments that seek to mitigate the cruelest provisions of the bill—with no expectation that the amendments will be successful. In defeat, those proposed amendments will generate a wave of campaign ads for 2026, highlighting the cruelty of Republicans in passing the Big Ugly Bill.
As I noted last night, Republicans seem to be willing to risk the future of their party to obey Trump's command to pass the reconciliation bill. Again, no need to believe me, that is the opinion of the Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal, Trump Puts the Senate in Play in 2026.
Per the WSJ Editorial Board,
The GOP has a 53-47 majority now, but Susan Collins always has a tough race in Maine if she decides to run again. Democrats are targeting Joni Ernst in Iowa. In the suicide-isn’t-painless department, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging GOP incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. Mr. Paxton may be the only Republican who could lose in Texas given his record harassing business with lawsuits, impeachment, and other embarrassments.
For a second day, Elon Musk has attacked the bill. But on Monday, he vowed to fund primary challenges against those Republicans who vote in favor of the bill. See The Guardian, Musk vows to unseat lawmakers who support Trump’s one big beautiful bill | Elon Musk.
Musk wrote on Monday,
Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame! And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.
As discussed below, no one should take from the above that the Democratic path to victory in the Senate in 2026 will be easy. Indeed, as I mentioned yesterday, the punditariat is proclaiming that Democrats will not flip the Senate in 2026 because “history.”
But we are not sheep, we are not potted plants, and we are not pawns of pundits who create spreadsheets that predict voter behavior. We have agency, and we must not quit. Republicans are making a HUGE mistake in passing a bill over the objection of the American people, and it is up to us to convert that mistake into a victory for democracy. It won’t be easy, and the outcome is not guaranteed, but I believe it is within our power to make it happen.
I can’t believe I have to add this qualification (see below for explanation), but if anyone reading the above thinks, “Oh, good! I can quit working to help Democrats defend democracy because Hubbell says we will take the Senate in 2026,” please go back and read what I wrote, above, especially the part about “It won’t be easy and the outcome is not guaranteed.”
Grassroots organizations are already planning the path to victory in the Senate in 2026. See The Grassroots Connector, Winning the Senate in 2026 Via Sweet Spot States of Alaska, Iowa & Nebraska, by Jim Shelton (of 31st Street Swing Left).
Shelton writes,
We have a road to a Blue Senate in 2026, and it runs through three unlikely states. While Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska are considered red States, they offer a “Sweet Spot" opportunity toward a blue majority US Senate in 2026, largely because Republican actions are harming rural and other key constituencies.
To win in these states we need to start now supporting local pro-democracy social media influencers to counteract the dominant rightwing propaganda machine. It takes time to build a critical mass of effective influencers to build strong followings and actually influence voters. Identifying and supporting these influencers now can put this Sweet Spot Triad into play for 2026.
If you are interested in the Democratic strategy to win the Senate in 2026, read Jim Shelton’s article about how you can help 31st Street Swing Left support local influencers in these Sweet Spot states.
As we wait with bated breath for the outcome of the Senate amendments and vote on the Big Ugly Bill, getting involved in an effort to prepare the battlefield in the “Sweet Spot” states is a good way to channel your nervous energy.
Stay strong and make those calls!
The Democratic Party is doing just fine.
As the GOP marches in goose-step over a cliff, the major media is gleefully reporting every growing pain of the only remaining pro-democracy party, a.k.a., the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is understandably restructuring itself after its senior leaders mishandled the Biden decision to run, withdraw, and presumptively nominate Kamala Harris.
Those restructuring efforts are a positive sign for the party's future. The contested run for DNC Chair? Good! David Hogg’s election and departure over disagreements about the pace of change? Good! Zohran Mamdani’s thrashing of a disgraced, establishment politician in New York Mayor’s race? Good! AOC touring the nation with pro-democracy rallies while calling out complacency among her peers? Good! Freshman Senator Elissa Slotkin developing a “war plan” for Democratic messaging in 2026 because “no one else was doing it”? Good!
Without regard to the merits of the positions of Ken Martin, David Hogg, Zohran Mamdani, AOC, or Elissa Slotkin on any subject, they represent a new generation of talent restless to lead the party into the future—just a John Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barak Obama did in their day.
It would be a bad sign for the Democratic Party (as it is for the GOP) if the next generation were missing in action. We should take confidence from the fact that the next generation cares enough about the Democratic Party to fight for its leadership.
I have made this point on several occasions, including during last Saturday’s Substack livestream. I am always annoyed when someone comes along and says effortlessly what I struggled to say. But Josh Marshall has done it again in his editor’s blog on Monday in Talking Points Memo, The Democratic Party is Its Voters and They’re Doing Just Fine.
Marshall writes,
On the one hand, [pundits claim that] the Democratic Party is “floundering,” “directionless,” “lost.” It’s approval numbers are bleak. And then, often in the same articles, you have all this evidence of voter intensity. Turnout. New activism. Lots of new people running for office.
What seems like an apparent contradiction resolves itself if you get your terms right. I don’t think the Democratic Party is in a tailspin or floundering at all. In many cases, the elected leadership of the party is. But the elected leadership is not the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is its voters. [¶]
Believe me, I want a more effective and more fighting Democratic Party as much as you do. But what we’ve seen from a range of different kinds of evidence — polls, town halls, protests, campaign activism — is that the public is deciding for themselves that they really don’t like what they’re seeing. Elected Democrats may not be doing enough to help that process. But voters are jumping into the breach and doing it themselves.
If you feel anxious or put off by the punditariat claiming that the Democratic Party “is in disarray,” think back to No Kings Day and ask yourself if what you saw was a party in disarray—or its voters rising up in massive numbers in a show of tremendous strength.
As Marshall notes, pundits are focused on party leaders instead of the party itself—a natural mistake for consultants who are holed up in fancy conference rooms in DC and did not attend a No Kings Day rally.
As The Who once sang, “The kids are alright.” Well, the Democratic faithful are alright. We get it; we are motivated; we are strong. We can stand a little drama at the top. Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, disagreement with Dear Leader on a single vote in the Senate spells the end of a respected Senator’s career. You tell me which party is in disarray . . . .
Yes, there will be elections in 2026.
Someone, somewhere out there in the blogosphere has written an article in the last few days claiming that Trump will cancel the 2026 elections. Starting last Friday, I began receiving emails from readers expressing the firm belief that Trump would cancel the 2026 elections; I am still receiving them on Monday evening. No one has identified the source, so if someone can do so, I would appreciate the opportunity to read the source of this panic.
As I mentioned to one reader today, we need to stop perpetuating the notion that Trump will cancel the 2026 elections, as it normalizes the concept. In fact, “canceling” congressional elections is easy to say but difficult to do. Let’s consider a few facts:
On January 3, 2027, at 11:59 a.m., the term of every Representative in the House will expire. Don’t you think those House members—including 219 Republican representatives—would like to be re-elected?
So, too, with Senators. The terms of 22 Republican Senators and 12 Democratic Senators will expire at 11:59 a.m. on January 3, 2027. If the 22 Republicans (or their replacement GOP nominees) don’t have the opportunity to run for re-election, don’t you think Republicans would be upset if Trump handed control of the Senate to Democrats by canceling the 2026 elections?
Saying “Trump will cancel the elections” is easy. But he has no power to do so. And let’s assume he does. The “termed out” but un-re-electable members of Congress will still have three months in office to let Trump know how they feel about him “canceling elections.” At that point, they would have powerful reason to impeach, convict, and remove him.
Another reader simply asserted that Trump would mount a military coup after the elections to prevent Democrats from taking control of the House and Senate (assuming that happens). The reader firmly believes that is a reasonable possibility. I don’t. The US military would not support a coup—and the American people wouldn’t stand for it.
I understand that saying that bad things will occur is one way of mediating anxiety about the future. But we need to be cautious about repeating baseless or vanishingly remote possibilities as though they are in the realm of possibility. Trump has accomplished many things by normalizing corruption and criminal behavior. Let’s not help him normalize the notion that he can cancel the 2026 elections. He can’t. And if he tries, we won’t let him.
I hope I am not misleading anyone into a false sense of security.
One of the goals of this newsletter is to give people hope during challenging times. I try to add balance to a news environment that focuses on short-term sensationalism and negative commentary to the exclusion of perspective and incremental progress. I also try to be realistic about the challenges we face.
Over the eight years of the newsletter’s existence, I have received a dozen or so critiques (usually from Never Trumpers) that my newsletter is too hopeful. These critics have often said that I need to frighten people by alarming them about how bad things can get. I think people know how bad things can get; they need motivation to continue the fight despite that knowledge.
Today, I received an email from a grassroots leader on the West Coast who asked me to “stop making predictions.” He said I was “way too optimistic” and “very often wrong.” He said my newsletter was harmful to organizing efforts. He wrote,
Your column today gave tens of thousands of readers a great excuse to think to themselves, “Hubbell says we’re going to smash the Republicans because of what they’ve done, so I don’t need to do anything.”
I don’t think anyone who read yesterday’s newsletter or the daily newsletters I have written for the last eight years could believe that I am telling grassroots volunteers they “don’t need to do anything” to defeat Trump. In fact, the opposite is true. I constantly urge readers “Not to quit” and “to continue to resist with every ounce of effort they can muster.”
The grassroots leader was reacting to the following portion of the Concluding Thoughts:
I spoke at the Network NOVA’s 9th Annual Women’s Summit over the weekend. I wish you all could have been there, not because of my speech, but because of the overwhelming sense of determination and tenacity that infused every aspect of the summit, including every attendee, speaker, volunteer, program, and activity.
Based on what I saw and experienced at the NOVA conference, we are going to crush Trump's enablers in 2026. It was inspiring. I left the conference more determined and hopeful than ever.
If anyone interpreted the above as a suggestion that we can sit back and relax, let me disabuse you of that notion. I was expressing my confidence in our prospects based on the determination and tenacity that I saw at the NOVA conference--meaning that “determination and tenacity” are prerequisites to crushing Trump's enablers, which is the opposite of saying, “We don’t need to do anything” to defeat Trump.
As I told the grassroots leader, I am not going to change my message. Part of Trump's strategy is to dispirit and demotivate us. The media are gleeful accomplices in selectively bashing Democrats while overlooking the corruption and criminality of Trump. Our side needs some hope, perspective, and confidence. I make no apologies for the mission of this newsletter or how I attempt to carry out that mission.
As I noted to the grassroots leader, if he believes that the message of this newsletter encourages his volunteers to give up, the obvious solution is to unsubscribe and to urge the volunteers in his organization to do the same.
For the rest of you, I hope you can distinguish between confidence in our future prospects based on the passion, commitment, and determination of tens of millions of grassroots volunteers and a statement that says, “Let’s knock off early; we have this in the bag.”
We need some confidence and swagger to counteract the self-assured pundits who are telling us all is doomed for Democrats. That is not true. We are strong, focused, and determined—and we have not capitulated to a wannabe dictator as has the entire Republican Party. That gives me hope in our future prospects—and it should do the same for you.
Concluding Thoughts.
I thought if I stayed up late enough, we might have some clarity on the fate of the reconciliation bill in the Senate. The fact that proceedings have dragged on through 3 a.m. ET is a sign that Democrats in the Senate are putting up a good fight. Bravo! They are rising to the occasion, as must we! Make those calls!
Talk to you tomorrow!
Daily Dose of Perspective
Below is an image of several nebulae backlit by the star Rho Ophiuchi. In professional photos taken with large telescopes, the nebulae are multi-colored, but my image picked up only the dominant blue cast.
I, for one, would never wish you to change your balance of stating the ugly truth about what the Trump regime is doing and giving us hope that, in the long run, he will be defeated. I agree that what the Right wants is for us to become discouraged and therefore to "give up". In order to remain steadfast in the work of speaking up and showing up, we need to have confidence that our efforts will ultimately be successful. Thank you for continuing to give us hope even in our darkest moments.
I have been reading Today's Edition for approx. five years now. Not once have I ever gotten the idea to stop "fighting."