A long slog.

April 19, 2022

[Audio version here]

          If the recent flood of articles about Biden’s low favorability ratings is any indication, it will be a long slog until Election Day 2022. Although I can’t possibly address all of the articles forwarded to me by readers, today I received multiple copies of Charles M. Blow’s op-ed in the NYTimes, Opinion | A Biden Blood Bath? Blow is a prestigious, thoughtful, and measured writer, so it is worth addressing Blow’s take on the upcoming election through the lens of Biden’s historically low favorability ratings.

          First, let me assure you that this isn’t going to hurt. Apart from the title (more on that in a moment), Blow approaches the issue of Biden’s low favorability ratings with his usual insight and equanimity. Blow addresses the question that will spill enough ink to float a battleship: What should we make of Biden’s low favorability ratings? Blow reviews the usual suspects (messaging, inflation), but settles on this insight:

I think the problem is more on ground level, a gut level: How do people feel? They feel stuck and angry, they’re tired and overwhelmed, and that energy is being directed at Biden.

          I agree with Blow. If you are sitting at home stewing in frustration over the state of the world and someone calls you to ask your thoughts about Biden’s performance, you have essentially been granted a 15-minute therapy session with a pollster. And here’s the kicker: Joe Biden is the vessel into which you are invited to pour your angst.

          I am not saying that Biden is a blameless victim here. Nor do I mean to excuse Biden and his advisers from their responsibility for reversing his low favorability ratings. But I think it would be foolish if we fail to acknowledge the psychological dynamics of this moment in history. So, I propose to look at the abysmal polling results through three lenses: (a) Perspective, (b) the connection between Biden’s favorability ratings and the fate of Democrats in 2022, and (c) what should we do about it—if anything.

          (a) Perspective. We must ask how Biden’s favorability ratings compare to those of other presidents in roughly the same position. So, when was the last time a president was two-and-a-half years into a global pandemic, was hobbled by a zero-vote majority in the Senate, and was facing the highest inflation rate in four decades (courtesy of the pandemic), all while the world teeters on the precipice of a world war? The last time America experienced that confluence of events was . . . never.

          Let’s be honest: the above factors (and more) are making people depressed, anxious, angry, and frustrated as never before. Joe Biden is in charge, so he is the logical person to blame for the feelings of anger, frustration, depression, and anxiety voters are experiencing. We should also be honest in asking whether any president could make voters feel better about the pandemic, inflation, political gridlock, and worries about world war. Can Biden do more to connect emotionally with voters? Probably, but there is only so much that any president could do with the hand that Biden has drawn.

          (b) The connection between Biden’s favorability ratings and the fate of Democrats in 2022. Many doomsayers automatically assume that Biden’s low favorability ratings translate into significant losses for Democrats in 2022. But that assumption is usually left unexamined by the prophets of doom. So, let’s examine their premises and see whether the predictions are inevitable.

          In 2022, voters will walk into a polling booth and vote—not for Joe Biden, but for their members of Congress, state legislators, school board members, mayors, and secretaries of state. Most of those races will present a stark choice. On the one hand, there will be a Democratic candidate who plans to improve the lives of voters and who believes in democracy and the rule of law. On the other hand, there will be a Republican candidate who wants to ban math textbooks, tell people what they can and cannot say, criminalize women’s reproductive choices, roll back civil rights (including the right to marry), and undermine the foundations of democracy. At that point, will voters’ feelings about Biden matter? Or will voters act in their self-interest to vote for candidates who seek to preserve democracy and improve the lives of all citizens?

          I acknowledge that some people may be mad enough at Joe Biden to vote against democracy in the upcoming election. But I don’t think there will be enough of them to outvote Americans who haven’t given up on America. For the sake of argument, let’s assume that we can’t change how people “feel” about the state of the world. What if all of the logic and common sense in the world cannot pierce the protective shell of anger and frustration that insulates those voters from appeals to reason? What then?

          (c) What should we do about it—if anything? If appeals to reason and self-interest can’t overcome the feelings of gloom enveloping voters, what (if anything) should we do differently? Nothing. We should keep doing everything we are doing now. We must win every race from school board to U.S. Senate. Just as Republicans have done for the last two decades, we must build a firewall at the local level that will allow us to gain control of state legislatures, state courts, election boards, city councils, and statewide offices. If we can do that, we strengthen our hand in ensuring a free and fair election in 2024.

          Am I worried about the polling? Sure. But I am not going to grant it more weight than it deserves. Nor will I reward headline writers—including Mr. Blow’s—for creating clickbait headlines. Read Charles M. Blow’s essay; although the headline is lifted from his essay, Blow’s conclusion recognizes that Democrats are not doomed to failure, as his headline writer seems to suggest. Here is Mr. Blow’s conclusion, which poses a fair challenge to Democrats:

But all this taken together — in addition to voter suppression and racial and political gerrymandering — may prove hugely problematic for Democrats and for the administration, unless they can turn things around before Election Day. If not, we could well be looking forward to a Biden blood bath.

          We can turn things around if we focus on the fact that Joe Biden’s favorability ratings will not be on the ballot on Election Day, but flesh-and-blood candidates will be—candidates who represent dramatically different choices about the future of America. If we maintain our focus on those differences, we have a much better chance of winning in 2022.

Why do so many Republicans believe the Big Lie?

          A perplexing question for many Democrats is why so many Republicans believe the Big Lie. That question was examined by Sarah Longwell in her essay in The Atlantic, Trump Supporters Explain Why They Believe the Big Lie. Longwell is executive director of Republicans for the Rule of Law, publisher of The Bulwark, and host of The Focus Group podcast—so she brings impressive credentials to her examination of why Republicans believe the Big Lie. I recommend her essay in its entirety, but here is a key passage drawn from focus groups with Trump voters:

For many of Trump’s voters, the belief that the election was stolen is not a fully formed thought. It’s more of an attitude, or a tribal pose. They know something nefarious occurred but can’t easily explain how or why.

          In other words, they can’t explain the Big Lie, but they know that believing it separates them from Democrats and RINOs—i.e., a “tribal pose” that demarcates true believers from apostates. So, don’t spend a lot of time trying to square the circle of belief in the Big Lie. It is a signaling device. By the way, the Big Lie will be on every ballot in 2022. While it may be a tribal pose for Republicans, it is a red flag for some independents and all Democrats.

Trump-appointed judge invalidates CDC mask requirement.

          A Trump-appointed judge issued a questionable decision and even more questionable nationwide injunction against the enforcement of mask mandates in interstate travel. See Talking Points Memo, Trump Judge Finds That CDC Lacks Power To…Control Disease Spread. There is a lot to say about this decision, but I will start with two points: First, like the Big Lie, the belief that efforts to control a deadly pandemic impinge on personal liberty is another “tribal pose” of Trumpists. It is dangerous; it has killed thousands of people and will kill thousands more. Second, Congress can fix the problem of federal judges acting as overlords of the CDC. The current law is ambiguous. Fix it—before it is too late.

Alex Jones / InfoWar hit with $1 million in fees in Sandy Hook, Parkland defamation cases.

          Alex Jones and InfoWars published defamatory statements about victims’ parents in the Sandy Hook and Parkland massacres. Judges presiding over two matters have awarded plaintiffs over $1 million in attorney’s fees and sanctions against Alex Jones. See HuffPo, Alex Jones Hit With $1 Million In Court Fees Over Sandy Hook, Parkland Lawsuits. Jones failed to present a defense in one of the cases but must appear for a trial to determine how much he owes in damages. Jones filed for bankruptcy last week, a move that will delay but not avoid a trial. The awards against Jones will cause some of the disinformation purveyors in the right-wing conspiracy machine to think twice about the lies they disseminate. Good.

Russia’s war against the Ukrainian people.

          The general consensus in the press is that Russia has commenced its second offensive against Ukraine. See WaPo, Russia’s eastern offensive has begun, Ukraine says, as strikes rock Lviv. I have begun to rely on daily assessments of the war published by The Institute for the Study of War, which a reader recommended. The daily assessments frequently include detail and analysis not included in the popular press. The ISW’s assessment for April 18th includes the following discussion of Russia’s renewed offense in the eastern part of Ukraine:

The Russian offensive in the east is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian offensives, but Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains. Russian forces did not take the operational pause that was likely necessary to reconstitute and properly integrate damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine into operations in eastern Ukraine.

          The ISW’s assessment seems to be more optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects in the Donbas than other sources. Let’s hope that the ISW’s assessment proves to be accurate.

Renewal season for subscribers who joined in April 2021.

          For those of you who became paying subscribers in April of 2021, subscription renewals have begun to process. If you see a charge on your credit card for “Today’s Edition,” that’s the name of this newsletter, written by me, your good friend Robert Hubbell! Thanks for your support! If you would like to become a paying subscriber to join the Today’s Edition community and support the work of this newsletter, click on the link at the bottom that says, “Subscribe now.”

Concluding Thoughts.

          We should recognize that we are included in the voters described by Charles M. Blow—“stuck and angry, tired and overwhelmed.” And I should add that we are disappointed by some of the decisions made by Democratic leaders. But things could be worse—we could be Republicans trying to defend the mean-spirited, anti-democratic, narcissistic statements of a twice impeached failed coup plotter.

          So, here’s the deal: When everyone is feeling down in the dumps, somebody’s got to be the adult in the room and declare an end to the pity party. Life is tough, politics is unfair, and the other guys don’t play by the rules. It has always been so. If that is enough to stop us, we don’t deserve to win. So . . . let’s quit giving the headline writers what they want (panic-induced clicks) and remain focused on doing the things necessary to affect the outcome in 2022—even if we don’t feel enthusiastic at the moment. Let’s power through the bad headlines and get back to work! We have elections to win in November!

          Talk to you tomorrow!