A good day for democracy!

November 10, 2022

          On Wednesday, President Biden described the midterm results as, “A good day for democracy!” Indeed, it was a good day for all Americans! Although the political outcome remains in doubt at the congressional level, the constitutional outcome is free from doubt: America passed its first “stress test” after the attempted insurrection on January 6th, 2021. As lessons begin to emerge from the midterms, it appears Americans rejected not only election deniers but also the GOP assault on democracy. As noted in Vox,

But the fact that high-profile election deniers did poorly in competitive races, often worse than comparable non-denier Republicans, suggests there may be something else going on here: that maybe, just maybe, a significant swath of the American public is punishing the Republican Party for running candidates who sought to turn against democracy itself.

          If true, that is the most important outcome of the 2022 midterms by far. If Americans reject those who seek to destroy democracy, there is plenty of room for spirited debate and strongly held disagreement between the parties. But if democracy itself is under attack, partisan debates become proxies for coups.

          The fight to preserve democracy is not over; it never will be. But this moment held special significance because of the attempted insurrection in 2021. As we celebrate our victories and rue our defeats, we should be grateful that both unfolded in a constitutional framework that is nearing the two-and-a-half-century mark. It was a good day for democracy, indeed!

What happened during the midterms?

          Thousands of elections were held on November 8th, and it would be impossible to cover them all. It is not even possible (for me) to fairly summarize the results in broad strokes—but that won’t stop me from trying. I am not a political analyst, just a retired lawyer with a laptop, so my views are derivative and incomplete. But there is much reason for hope in the results (my specialty), and I will do my best to distill that view. Others will undoubtedly cover the worrisome signs and recriminations for poorly run campaigns. To be clear, there is room and need for such critical introspection, but I will leave that task to others.  

          But before turning to the lessons of the midterms, we must recognize that the midterms are not over! Our most important collective task is to re-elect Raphael Warnock to the Senate. Because neither Warnock nor Herschel Walker secured the majority of the votes cast (due to a third-party candidate), Georgia will hold a run-off election on December 6, 2022. Stay tuned for details here, but don’t wait for me to tell you what to do! Donate, write postcards, volunteer for texting and phone banking, canvass, post, tweet, and talk to friends, neighbors, and complete strangers.

          Three incumbent Senate Democrats are in races “too close to call” and we must win two of them to maintain a 50-50-1 majority in the Senate. Although we “left everything on the field” in the first four quarters of the game, we are now in overtime and must dig deeper to find more energy, resources, and resolve. The positive outcomes to date should give us the needed boost! Do not sit on the sidelines for this important race!  

          So, here is my thematic review of what happened:

Democrats scored significant wins in contests for state legislatures, governorships, and secretaries of state.

          After the ruling in Dobbs, the perpetuation of the 2020 Big Lie, and the insurrection, control of state legislative and executive branches has become a new battleground for democracy. Led by organizations like The States Project, Democrats finally paid attention to critical elections at the state level that affect the balance of power in swing states. Those efforts paid off! The victories affect a number of issues, including election integrity, reproductive liberty, and whatever culture-war issue that Republicans will next attempt to ram through state legislatures.

          Among the many wins, Democrats now control  both chambers of the legislature in Michigan and the governorship (Gretchen Whitmer)—a new trifecta for Democrats! Other Democrats were elected (or reelected) in hotly contested races, including Wisconsin (Tony Evers), Pennsylvania (Josh Shapiro), Maryland (Wes Moore), and Kansas (Laura Kelly). Each of those wins gives Democrats control—or veto power—over legislation.

          Democrat Maura Healey was elected as Massachusetts’ first female governor. Healey made history “as the first out lesbian to be elected governor.”

          Democrats appear to have gained control of state chambers and the governor’s seat in four new states—Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland, and Massachusetts. But flipping legislatures isn’t the only measure of success. Democrats prevented trifectas or defeated “veto-proof” GOP legislatures in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Montana and are on the verge of gaining control of the Pennsylvania House. See Philadelphia Inquirer, Pennsylvania Democrats believe they have flipped the state House.

          There are undoubtedly more success stories, and I will follow up tomorrow. I am hoping The States Project will release a report on the successes at the state level. Stay tuned!

Americans reject election deniers.

          There were hundreds of election deniers on the ballot in the midterms, but it appears that the six who were likely to do the most damage in 2024 have lost. See Talking Points Memo, America Starts To Reject Election Deniers. And here is a summary from the Brennan Center for Justice:

In the six key swing states that determined the 2020 election, conspiracy theorists ran for office to seize the electoral machinery for 2024. In Michigan and Georgia (in the primary), extremist candidates for secretary of state lost. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where governors have power over election administration, election deniers fell short. So far, the conspiracy theorists are 0-4. In Arizona and Nevada, while the results are not final, election deniers running for secretary of state may lose. In fact, some of the most prominent election deniers did worse than other Republican candidates running on the same ticket. Voters paid attention.

Reproductive liberty.

          The tide continues to run strongly against Republicans on the issue of reproductive liberty. When voters are given the chance to vote on state control of reproductive choice, choice always wins. As summarized by The Guardian,

Michigan, Vermont, and California passed amendments to their constitutions to protect reproductive liberty. Voters in Kentucky defeated a ballot initiative to remove reproductive liberty from the state constitution. These wins deliver more blows for Republicans who are increasingly finding that, when put to a vote, Americans frequently do not agree with a sweeping agenda to dismantle abortion rights.

So far, the anti-abortion movement has relied on judges, state houses and Republican lawmakers to curtail reproductive rights.

          Importantly, exit polling shows that reproductive liberty drove voters to the polls to vote against Republicans. Given that any GOP majority in Congress will immediately seek to criminalize abortion nationally, Republicans are clearly on the wrong side of this issue. As summarized by Dan Pfeiffer in his Substack blog, Message Box, reproductive liberty fueled the Democrats’ surprising victories:

27% of respondents said abortion was their top issue in deciding how they voted. It was second only to inflation (31%) and far outweighed immigration (10%) and gun control (11%). Voters in California, Kentucky, Michigan and Montana all opted to protect abortion rights via ballot propositions rather than furthering bans.

In Pennsylvania, the exit poll found that abortion was the number one issue — outpacing inflation 36 percent to 28 percent.

          The exit polling on reproductive liberty gives us reason to be hopeful about the 2024 congressional and presidential elections—especially if Republicans continue their lockstep approach to criminalizing reproductive choice.

Younger voters.

          As Victor Shi has been reporting on Twitter (@VictorShi2020),

data confirms 18-29-year-olds voted for Democrats more than “any other” age group yesterday. Young people literally prevented a Red Wave & saved Democrats. Full stop. If you know a young voter, please thank them.

          Democrats perform better among younger, college-educated voters than any other constituency except for Black voters. See WaPo, What 2022 exit polls show about how the U.S. voted. Given those facts, Democrats should increase their investment in motivating turnout among those constituencies—as well as Hispanic/Latino and Asian voters, who make up the next largest groups of reliably Democratic voters.

          I have frequently promoted The Civics Center, which focuses on registering and motivating turnout among high school and college students. Every four years, twelve million young people become eligible to register—and when they do, they lean heavily Democratic in outlook and party affiliation. Again, we should be focusing more energy and resources on the youth vote in light of the 2022 midterms. Check out the Civics Center to see if you can help sponsor a voter registration drive at a nearby school or campus!

The Climate.

          Kudos to Vox for examining the impact of the midterms on the climate. See Vox, The midterm results on climate change in state races. As noted in the article, Minnesota and Michigan can now pass long-awaited climate bills. So, too, with Maryland and Massachusetts. See Inside Climate News, Four States Just Got a ‘Trifecta’ of Democratic Control, Paving the Way for Climate and Clean Energy Legislation.

          In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Democratic governors have issued executive orders on climate issues; Democrats held off veto-proof majorities in the legislatures, ensuring that those orders will remain in effect.

          And in Texas, Democrat Lina Hidalgo was re-elected as “Judge” (the equivalent of a CEO) of the Houston area. Hidalgo expanded the county’s pollution budget and air monitors, but her opponent said that “climate” was not a “priority.” Houston is one of the nation’s largest petroleum producers, so Hidalgo’s reelection is significant.

Ron DeSantis.

          There is more to cover, but I can’t leave without discussing the premature coronation of Ron DeSantis as the MAGA heir apparent. It is true that DeSantis achieved an outsized margin of victory—a fact that has caused pundits to fall all over themselves with praise for DeSantis. But consider this: Virtually every Republican candidate in Florida won by significant margins.

          For example, Marco Rubio beat Val Demings by 17 percentage points. I should not disparage Marco Rubio or his margin of victory, but I will anyway: The Rubio-Demings race was the equivalent of a race between My Little Pony and Abraham Lincoln, where My Little Pony beats Lincoln by 17 points.

          There is no rational explanation for that outcome. There is, of course, an irrational explanation, and Democrats must discover that explanation ASAP. But before we heap too much credit on DeSantis, let’s figure out what happened in Florida before we anoint DeSantis as the MAGA king. (Also, DeSantis may have benefitted from the Hurricane Ian recovery efforts—funded by the federal government that he despises. See The Hill, How DeSantis’ hurricane response helped boost him.)

          Winning in Florida isn’t the same as winning in other states. DeSantis has thin skin and presents as a mean-spirited jerk. While the MAGA base has demonstrated its affinity for thin-skinned, mean-spirited jerks, the Number One Mean-Spirited Jerk would lose to both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, according to a recent poll commissioned by The Federalist. So, let’s not panic yet.

Concluding Thoughts.

          Among all the hopeful news and “unexpected” victories, we must not forget that many of our friends and colleagues are in mourning and shock over losses by their candidates. I have heard from readers in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas, who feel shell-shocked and (for the moment) disillusioned and helpless. They backed outstanding candidates like Beto O’Rourke, Val Demings, and Cheri Beasley. (And let’s not forget supporters of Tim Ryan in Ohio.) If you know anyone who lives in a red state or is devastated by an irrational result, reach out to them. Assure them that they aren’t forgotten and their efforts matter. Their efforts are seeding the ground for future victories, even though that future may seem distant and contingent.

          The week before the election, I published a newsletter titled “No effort is wasted.” In the newsletter, I wrote that  

our efforts cannot be measured only by whether our candidates win or lose. In evaluating our efforts, we must ask two additional questions: First, what would have happened if we had not put in the effort to affect the outcome? Second, how many new voters did our efforts bring into the lifeblood of democracy?

[I]f our efforts bring new voters into the democratic process, that is a long-term win without regard to short-term outcomes. Building democracy is a slow, accretive process. Our goal is to bring as many new voters into the process as possible. If we can do that, we will win—it is only a matter of time.

          So, for those readers whose candidates lost, the real measure of success is whether we fortified the foundations of democracy by bringing new voters to the polls. We did that on November 8th, which is why it was a “good day for democracy.” Every member of the resistance who contributed to that “good day” should be proud and grateful.

          There is more to discuss, but I have gone on too long already. Thanks for your patience. In the meantime, help re-elect Raphael Warnock!

          Talk to you tomorrow!