A few hopeful signs emerge.
March 6, 2025
After a week of unrelenting bad news, Americans hoping for a return to sanity were treated to a few hopeful signs. While we have a long way to go, developments on Wednesday point the way forward. It feels good to have a bit of positive news to discuss. Let’s take a look!
Supreme Court orders Trump to comply with lower court order to disburse $2 billion in USAID grants
In a 5-4 decision, the US Supreme Court ordered the Trump administration to comply with an order by US District Judge Amir Ali to disburse $2 billion in USAID grants. The narrow victory was significant because an opposite result would have diminished the authority of Congress over the “power of the purse” and granted Trump powers not found in the Constitution.
Let’s take a moment to appreciate the fact that the “center held” and that “all is right with the world.”
But even casual observers will note that the Supreme Court managed to come to the right conclusion by the smallest margin possible. Cranky Old Man, er, Justice Alito penned an eight-page dissent to a one-paragraph decision by the majority. In his dissent, Alito managed to misrepresent the facts in a way that was previously viewed as unacceptable for justices of the Court. But lying about the record when it loses has (sadly) become par for the course for the reactionary members of the Court.
The fragility of the narrow margin is explained by Chris Geidner in his Substack article entitled, SCOTUS, barely, upholds our three-branch system of government | Law Dork. For those interested in the details, Geidner does an excellent job of explaining just how close this victory was.
The majority’s one-paragraph order was weak sauce, returning the case to Judge Ali with instructions to provide the government with greater specificity about its obligations to make payments as instructed by Congress—during which time the $2 billion in payments remain suspended.
And as Geidner explains, the majority left the door wide open to future appeals—which seem certain. Given the 5-4 split on this decision, we know that four justices will vote to grant certiorari on an appeal from the merits. If Alito can pick up one additional vote on the next appeal, he may be able to rewrite the Constitution without the need for a pesky constitutional amendment ratified by 38 states.
As Geidner notes, Justice Alito resorted to deceit to support his dissent. Alito claims that US District Judge Ali issued an order “out of frustration” when Trump failed to heed the judge’s first order. That is not true. Judge Ali issued an order compelling Trump to disburse the funds by a date certain only after Trump ignored three prior orders. Alito’s dissent ignores the repeated failure of the Trump administration to comply with a court order and implies that the district judge acted merely out of frustration.
Geidner explains,
[Alito’s statement] is false — and materially so. It was not [Judge Ali’s] second order. It was, in fact, the fourth order. . . . It was only after continued nonpayment in the wake of the first three orders that Ali, in response to a motion from the plaintiffs in the case, issued the fourth order with a payment deadline.
So, we have a glimmer of hope suggesting that the Supreme Court will confine Trump's powers to those enumerated in the Constitution. But those hopes hinge on two justices who dissembled in their confirmation hearings about their loyalty to the Constitution.
For now, we should accept our victory and be grateful that we have lived to fight another day. After the last few weeks, that is a welcome respite!
Trump's speech to Congress underwhelms, as does his first six weeks in office
In a rational world, popular opinion should be turning against Trump—if only at the margins. That appears to be happening.
Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress garnered lower ratings than any of his previous speeches, despite high drama surrounding Ukraine and DOGE. See CNN, Trump Joint Speech Hits ‘Bottom of the Barrel’ in CNN Flash Poll — Even Compared to Trump’s Other Speeches.
Per CNN, the audience for the speech was highly partisan—14% “more Republican” than the general population. Only 21% of those watching were Democrats. Despite an “over-sampling” of Republicans, the speech had lower favorable ratings than Trump’s prior four speeches to Congress.
Although Trump received a plurality of “very positive reaction,” CNN describes Trump's ratings as “bottom of the barrel” for modern presidential speeches to Congress in terms of favorability ratings.
CNN explains that Trump had higher “very positive” reaction in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Trump's speech last night received 44% “very positive” reaction compared to a 57% in 2017. Joe Biden’s first address to Congress received a 51% very positive reaction; Obama and Bush had even higher ratings.
The poor reception to Trump's supposed “triumphant” return before Congress aligns with early signals of loss of support among Independents, women, and young rural voters. See Peter Hamby in Puck, “Boys of Bummer,” or Is Trump Already Losing the Trump Bros? (This article is behind a paywall.)
Hamby writes,
Trump came into office with a 50 percent favorable rating among Gen Z voters. Now, he’s at 43 percent.
Since mid-January, Trump’s favorable rating has dropped most significantly among young rural voters (down 17 points), independents (down 13 points), white women (down 10 points), and women overall (down 10 points).
At the same time, Trump’s standing among young white men has remained about the same. “Slippage with white men is not statistically significant right now,” Della Volpe noted.
In general, my advice is to “ignore the polls.” Single polls are meaningless. But the trends over time can be meaningful. The above results show an early trend and should be considered as a starting point for comparison in the future.
The above results align with sensible predictions about changes in electoral support for Trump for two reasons.
First, Trump’s core constituency (aggrieved white men) seems unshakeable in their support of Trump's attacks on DEI, immigration, education, science, and federal regulations.
Second, other groups are reacting negatively to Trump's rampage of hate and destruction—including Independents, Gen Z, women (in general), white women, and young rural voters.
The results could have been otherwise. It is not inconceivable that large swaths of the population would approve of Trump's “strongman” campaign of retribution. The fact that most Americans don’t support Trump's hateful agenda is encouraging—and suggests that support for Trump will continue to deteriorate as the pain trickles down to Americans across the nation.
None of this suggests that the road ahead will be easy. But it reinforces a rational worldview in which vengeful, destructive behavior tends to alienate voting blocs that are negatively affected by such behavior.
DOGE hackers list the DOJ and FBI headquarters buildings for sale.
The incompetence of the DOGE hackers is becoming well-known. They have claimed hundreds of billions of dollars in savings for “canceling” contracts that were completed and closed years ago. On Wednesday, the NYTimes reported that DOGE had ordered the sale of hundreds of government buildings, including the headquarters for the DOJ and the FBI. See NYTimes, Trump Officials Take Down List of Federal Properties for Possible Sale.
Per the Times,
On Tuesday, the Trump administration identified more than 440 federal properties that could be sold off, a list that included high-profile buildings like the headquarters of the F.B.I., Justice Department and the Department of Health and Human Services.
Selling the DOJ headquarters building would certainly send a statement about Trump's commitment to justice in America. But another building listed for sale suggests that Trump is unconcerned about harm from nuclear waste. See Talking Points Memo, DOGE D’oh: Nuclear Waste Facility Edition.
As Josh Marshall explains,
One of the leases DOGE decided to cancel is the lease for Skeen-Whitlock Building in Carlsbad, New Mexico, a 90,000 square foot facility which manages the nation’s only storage area for DOD-created nuclear waste and the only operating deep geologic nuclear waste storage facility in the world.
It’s the facility where they process the nuclear waste before putting it in the super deep nuclear storage hole.
For emphasis: DOGE wanted to lease to a third party the only building in America that currently processes nuclear waste. You couldn’t make up this level of stupidity if you tried.
Trump administration ceases intelligence sharing with Ukraine
The status of efforts to settle the Ukraine war is in flux. European nations are working to provide funding for Ukraine. President Zelensky has offered to sign the mineral rights deal giving the US the ability to extract rare earth metals from Ukraine. France has proposed a cease fire deal. It feels like maybe things are back on track to working out a peace deal.
And then, earlier this week, the Trump administration decided to quit sharing intelligence information with Ukraine. The ban extends to US intelligence shared directly and through intelligence-sharing partners like Britain, Australia, and Japan. See MSN, U.S. Orders UK to Cut Off Intelligence Flow to Ukraine.
Apart from cutting off military weapons necessary to conduct a defense, cutting off intelligence is the next most harmful thing Trump can do to Ukraine. Although Trump appears to be going through the motions of working toward peace, his actions show that he is working to help Putin achieve victory. We have no reason to trust that Trump will do the right thing.
Concluding Thoughts
Jill and I attended a demonstration in front of the US Consulate in Edinburgh, Scotland, on Wednesday evening. About 100 people showed up in the blustery cold at 6 p.m. Many demonstrators were students from local universities, but some were Ukrainians working in Scotland. The Ukraine Solidarity Campaign Scotland organized the demonstration.
The messages from speakers focused on support from Ukraine. Although several speakers and protesters expressed dissatisfaction with the actions of Trump, the speakers actively solicited the support of Americans to lobby their representatives in Congress.
There are parallels between the tactics Trump is using internally in the US and those Putin is using to wage his war against the people of Ukraine—especially disinformation designed to destroy trust in institutions.
The bravery of the people of Ukraine should serve as a model and inspiration to us. We are not permitted to surrender. Too much is at stake. And just as Putin underestimated the will and fortitude of the Ukrainian people, Trump has underestimated the American people. We will endure and prevail. It is only a matter of time.
Stay strong!
Daily Dose of Perspective
Photo of demonstration outside of US Consulate on March 5, 2025, in Edinburgh, Scotland.
This Wednesday morning, waking after the State of the Union Monologue, the fantasy came to me that wouldn’t it have been a striking show of democratic peaceful nonviolent resistance if, during the address, every 15 minutes, 30 democrats stood up, and after making a one sentence statement, walked out. By the end of two hours, Trump would have been addressing a half empty gathering. Unprecedented actions on Trump’s part calls for Unprecedented resistance and response.
I recommend following Alt National Park Service. They posted this message today.
We are working on launching an ALT DOGE website. It will soon feature a team page listing all of Elon’s staffers, our own wall of receipts (tracking the money he’s taking from America), and a section to help Americans keep tabs on the false claims on Doge’s website—which now exceed 52%.