A clarifying moment
April 22, 2024
The House passed the Ukraine aid bill over the weekend. The long-overdue vote was a clarifying moment in US politics. The final vote was 311 in favor and 112 against (only Republicans voted against the bill). Still, nearly 50% of the Republican caucus (101) supported the $60 billion lifeline to Ukraine.
After six months of partisan posturing and pro-Putin propaganda from the Gaetz-Greene-Gosar wing of the GOP, three-quarters of the House supported the bill and only one-quarter opposed. The ratio of support to opposition on the Ukraine vote belies the notion that America is evenly split between those still committed to responsibly governing the nation and those who seek to tear it down.
The 25% of House members who voted against Ukraine roughly approximates the percentage of the American electorate that supports Trump's extremist agenda. While the Ukraine vote is not a proxy for the full range of culture war issues ignited by the GOP, it roughly corresponds to the divided sentiment among the electorate regarding strict abortion laws.
The notion that Trump's “MAGA supporters” constitute a near-majority in America doesn’t align with the Ukraine vote—or the votes on state-level constitutional amendments to protect reproductive liberty. Every state that has considered a constitutional amendment to expand reproductive liberty since the Dobbs decision has passed the amendment: California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Vermont, and Ohio. Two institutions—the Electoral College and the US Senate—distort the power of the quarter(ish) percentage of Americans who support the extreme MAGA agenda.
The vote on Ukrainian aid is a defining moment because it confirms that when Americans are faced with a stark choice, the divisions that rive America are neither as deep nor wide as the hyperbolic election rhetoric suggests. All Americans should take some measure of comfort and affirmation from the strong support for Ukraine aid in the House.
What about Mike Johnson’s position as Speaker?
While we should guard against overinterpreting a single vote in the House, the strength of Republican support for rationality and patriotism must be considered in light of active lobbying against the bill by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
While Trump offered momentary support for Johnson’s tenure as Speaker last week, he quickly reverted to a non-committal kiss-of-death, saying, “We’ll see what happens” when asked if he still supported Mike Johnson when it became clear that Johnson would bring the aid bill to the floor.
Johnson has gained grudging respect for his last-minute conversion on Ukraine. He may also have broken the death grip of the one-person “motion to vacate” threat in the House. The support for the Ukraine bill may give Johnson hope of surviving a motion to vacate.
After the House passed the Ukraine bill on Saturday, Marjorie Taylor Greene renewed her threat on Sunday to proceed with a motion to vacate. See CNN, Marjorie Taylor Greene calls on Johnson to resign after foreign aid bills pass: ‘If he doesn’t do so, he will be vacated’.
A few Democrats have indicated their willingness to support Johnson if a threatened motion to vacate is made by Rep. Greene. If Johnson survives the vote, Greene’s reign of terror in the House will be greatly diminished. Indeed, it may already be on the wane. The Trump-supporting New York Post featured a headline on Sunday with a picture of Rep. Greene with a Russian fur cap and the caption, NYET, MOSCOW MARJORIE!.
The rough treatment of Rep. Greene by the Daily News was justified. Putin was furious over the passage of the Ukraine aid bill, which Greene worked tirelessly to defeat. See Newsweek, Russia Issues Furious Warning After Ukraine Aid Bill. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, said the quiet part out loud, admitting that Russia is attempting to divide Americans as part of its strategy to prevent US aid to Ukraine.
Medvedev said the following after the aid package passed:
I cannot with all sincerity not wish the United States to plunge into a new civil war as quickly as possible.
Russia is a former superpower and failing state. It can no longer compete with the US, so it does the next best thing: It attempts to weaken America internally by sowing division and strife.
Ousting Mike Johnson may be part of Russia’s plan to continue the chaos that has gripped the House for the last six months. In an odd twist of fate, helping Mike Johnson to finish out his term as Speaker may serve to frustrate Putin’s plans to weaken American from within.
Supreme Court hearings this week
It will be a big week at the US Supreme Court. It will hear the appeal on Trump's presidential immunity defense, whether local governments can impose financial penalties on people suffering homelessness, and whether the federal government can require hospitals receiving federal funds (they all do) to provide emergency medical treatment to patients suffering medical emergencies in pregnancies. Per Mother Jones,
Reproductive health advocates and the Biden Administration argue that EMTALA applies to abortion care in urgent situations in which a pregnant person’s health is threatened by continuing their pregnancy. For example, should a pregnant woman be on the brink of severe illness due to their pregnancy, advocates argue she should be able to immediately receive a medically necessary abortion—even in a state where abortion is banned.
See Mother Jones, The Supreme Court Is About to Have a Very Busy Week.
The fact that the Supreme Court granted review in each of the above cases is worrisome. With a different Court, a reasonable inference would be that the Court was reaching out to protect individual liberties against local overreach and to ensure that no person is above the law. Given the reactionary majority’s agenda over the last three years, that is not a safe assumption. But we should reserve judgment until we hear the questioning by the Justices.
Opportunity for reader engagement
BigTentUSA is excited to announce the new date for their conversation with former Congresswoman Liz Cheney: Wednesday, May 1st | 7:00 PM ET.
If you previously registered for the BigTentUSA Spotlight Series: Liz Cheney and Katie Couric, as scheduled for April 10th, you are aware the event was postponed and have since received the new date information, as stated above. (As a reminder, please DO NOT re-register as the personal link provided in the zoom email you received prior will work for the new call.)
To those for whom this event information may be new, BigTent is pleased to host a conversation featuring Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney (R-WY) and MSNBC contributor Charlie Sykes. The conversation will explore a range of topics including the future of democracy, insights from Cheney’s book ‘Oath and Honor,’ the dynamics within the Republican Party, perspectives on Trump and the Capitol assault, and previously undisclosed stories from Congress. Additionally, they will delve into ways we can safeguard American democracy.
To all, please feel free to share the invite with friends and family, and with your networks, using the link below! https://www.bigtentusa.org/event/oath-and-honor/
Concluding Thoughts
The media will be unable to look away from Trump's election interference trial in Manhattan. Prosecutors and defense counsel will deliver opening statements on Monday, and the first witness will likely take the stand on Tuesday.
It will be challenging to consume the news about the trial in a responsible, healthy way. I offer a few observations below.
First, the trial is important and cannot be ignored. Although most media describe the trial as being about “hush money,” that is an incomplete and misleading description. Trump worked with the National Enquirer and his attorneys over a several-year period to deceive the American people about his own depravity while spreading lies about his opponents.
The “catch and kill” scheme to protect Trump from the truth of his bad acts should be remembered as one of the major coverups in US history. But it is diminished by calling it a trial about “hush money.” It is an important trial about a significant effort to deceive American voters. It matters. Don’t look away entirely.
Second, the trial is the first step in finally holding Trump accountable for his crimes. While a conviction cannot be guaranteed, the fact of the trial demonstrates that no person is above the law in America. Whatever else happens, the rule of law is being vindicated every day that a jury of ordinary citizens sits in judgment over Trump.
Third, Trump's image as a strongman and bully is being deflated with each passing hour in the courtroom. Trump is diminished, impotent, frail, and all too human. The trial is not intended to embarrass Trump, but it is having that effect. “Further affiant sayeth naught.”
Finally, as a reminder, the trial is not a substitute for beating Trump at the ballot box. It does not matter whether Trump is found guilty or the jury fails to reach a unanimous verdict. (No jury will acquit him, which would take a unanimous jury verdict of “not guilty.”)
His absence from the campaign trail and his difficulties in court may affect some persuadable voters but the trial is not an excuse to rest or relent. We must continue to do everything we are already doing—but with greater determination and commitment.
But to the extent that you can, I urge you not to allow yourself to be drawn into the trial as if it were a telenovela or soap opera. Trials have natural rhythms that are impossible to sense outside the courtroom. A three-week trial is a marathon, and developments that seem monumental on the first day will recede into insignificance. So, there is little point in allowing your emotions to swing wildly with each new controversy. The jury will consider all of the evidence as a whole at the end of the trial. Let the jurors do their work while you do yours.
As a rule of thumb, I suggest that treating the trial as the third or fourth most important story of the day is about the right level of significance to ascribe to the daily ebb-and-flow. A jury verdict or the jailing of the former president for contempt might be the exception, but otherwise, recognize that there is a big world outside the small Manhattan courtroom that isn’t going to stop merely because Trump muttered and glared at Michael Cohen or Stormy Daniels.
Hope that is helpful advice!
Talk to you tomorrow!
Talk to you tomorrow!
As Tom said the other night, "The Wind is Changing". I know you read it too, but I do get the feeling that something serious is shifting. Perhaps by the pressure we collectively exert, but if it will pick up to propell us home, we must keep the pressure on and not slack off!
As usual, I love your last line. Trump and his depravity are boring. Boring. Boring. They are the doings of a troubled soul and a bully, which is not, sadly, something unusual to our species. He offers no hope, no beauty, nothing new. And, no, I will not be watching. I will be doing anything I can to defeat this most disgraceful, pathetic, and sybaritic human being. Tank the MF's ratings.