My Saturday livestream comments are here: Live with Robert B. Hubbell 5/16/27.

Pro-democracy protest photos.

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state.]

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Here are a few photos from the National Day of Action for Voting Rights: All Roads Lead to the South in Greensboro, NC. Our march led us in front of the International Civil Rights Center & Museum/Woolworth’s.

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Kalamazoo visibility brigade. While activists marched in Alabama today, Visibility Brigades across the country, including ours in Kalamazoo, showed up in solidarity.

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Lyons, CO 5/16/26

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On Friday afternoons during rush hour, we, the Russell St. Bridge Brigade in Littleton, MA,  are out on MA highway 495, which starts in Florida & goes on through to Maine (or vice versa).  The truckers & cars seem to really like this week’s message, “GOT GAS PAIN?” with the most honking & waves we have ever gotten.

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Indivisible Adirondack Saratoga, Saratoga Springs, New York

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Philly: Fight Trump’s War on Black America—All roads lead to the south (May 16)

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Pop-up protest in Friday Harbor, WA, on Saturday, May 16. Complete with bubbles!

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Kansas City, MO Rescue Democracy  12-2. People from The March is Not Over came at 2 to the same spot. Most of us stayed for that. 

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Photos from Wells, Maine - our weekly Saturday protest (5/16/26), around 20 people. One of our protestors is an art therapist, and she came up with the wonderful sign “Don of Dementia - Battling Windmills”! The best sign ideas come from your newsletter community - thank you!

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Pittsfield MA, The sunny weather brought out a gigantic crowd today, as does the continuing disruption of America as we know it. John Sharaf Photography.

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Saturday, May 16, St. Augustine, FL local civil rights legend James Jackson joined protesters to protect voting rights at the busy intersection of US1 and 312.

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American Tobacco Trail Pedestrian Bridge over I-40. Durham NC in conjunction with Operation Overpass across 20 states. Every month on the 3rd Saturday.

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Friday, May 15, 2026 - Vancouver, Washington Resistance Rally on the Evergreen Blvd bridge overlooking the I-5 Freeway.

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Visibility Brigade of Paramus NJ, Friday May 15th

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The Northwest Resistance, CT Saturday Rally! About 14 of us out here in our small town.

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South Deerfield, Massachusetts. Every Friday 3-4. Lots of support!

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New Haven,CT…The Umbrella Brigade Stand Outs.

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Freeway Resistance in Bozeman MT

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On May 2nd, our Orange County Congregation Community Organization (OCCCO) organized a Pilgrimage of Solidarity across Fullerton CA. We went to 4 waypoints where people had been taken by ICE.

At each waypoint, the list of what happened at the location was read out, along with a testimonial, reflection, and shared lament – after which we placed flowers at the site near a sign that said, “A Community Member Was Taken From Here”. Each waypoint was represented by a different faith leader: Jewish; Unitarian Universalist; Catholic/Christian; and Muslim.

At our 5th and final stop, Fullerton City Hall, we made a Shared Commitment, then left notes with a word, prayer, or commitment, on a small white flag, and placed them in the bushes for others to read. 

The Reflection: We must remember what has happened in out city and to our neighbors who have been othered and dehumanized. We refuse to be silent in the face of fear, injustice, and the erosion of dignity. We commit to stand together across faiths and across differences, remaining committed to one another and to the belief that our community must be a place where every neighbor belongs.

I know this is very long, and whether you use it or not in your newsletter, I wanted to share it with you. It was a very moving experience.

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We are arriving at the end of a second rough week. But despite the setbacks, we are winning. We have reason to look to the future with confidence and resolve. But we must also acknowledge the setbacks and feelings of disappointment, so that we can put them in perspective and move on. We have an election to win, and nothing that has happened in the last two weeks is going to stop us.

Over the last week,

• The US Supreme Court refused to hear an emergency application challenging the Virginia Supreme Court’s decision invalidating the redistricting initiative approved by the people of Virginia.

• Louisiana and South Carolina opted for maximalist racial gerrymandering.

• Georgia’s governor is calling the legislature back into session to take up gerrymandering that would affect the 2028 election.

Although not directly related to gerrymandering, two developments late in the week reinforce the sense of asymmetry and unfairness inherent in Callais and its aftermath:

• Colorado’s governor commuted the sentence of Tina Peters, a county elections official who allowed an election denier to copy election software for use in seeking to overturn the 2020 election.

• Trump is attempting to create a $1.7 billion slush fund to compensate alleged victims of Joe Biden’s alleged “weaponization’ of the DOJ, i.e., January 6 insurrectionists.

All of this is occurring against a backdrop in which the media is focusing on the post-Callais gerrymandering as if it were a game of Sudoku in which the outcome is determined by filling in the right numbers in the right boxes, as if democratic representation were a logic puzzle with a single correct solution, rather than a fundamental right being systematically dismantled one district at a time.

The pundits and commentators who have reduced democracy to an algorithm are creating overly pessimistic views of where Democrats stand two weeks post-Callais. The commentariat fails to grasp that Callais was not a decision about partisan gerrymandering. It was a green light to reinstate the Jim Crow Era in the Old South by legalizing racial gerrymandering.

The failure of insight and imagination among pundits leads them to overlook the reaction of Black Americans directly affected by the dilution of their votes because of the color of their skin or their status as descendants of enslaved people. It also causes them to overlook the sense of outrage by tens of millions of other Americans of every race and ethnicity—white, Latino, Asian, and Indigenous Americans, among many others.

Callais is the tipping point. The bare-knuckled, naked racism of the decision and its aftermath demonstrates that the moment of truth has arrived: We must do whatever it takes to save democracy in the near term.

Callais was a monumental overreach by right-wing extremists. It is the dying cry of the Old South. The neo-Confederates know that the moment of truth has arrived. They acted out of desperation, seizing their last opportunity to cling to power for a few months longer. They will lose the midterms despite their best efforts to fix the game. They will lose the Senate in 2026 or 2028, and the presidency in 2028. They understand that when they do, their minority rule reign of terror will be over.

It is not merely that they have overreached. They have stirred deep pools of outrage, anger, pride, courage, and perseverance of generations of Americans of every race and color who fought for civil rights over the last half century.

In truth, the full dimensions of the national injury inflicted by Callais will take time for Americans to appreciate and understand. That is why we must refuse to discuss Callais as if it were a decision about partisan gerrymandering and must instead describe it as a decision to reinstitute the Jim Crow Era in the South.

Only when understood through that lens will enough Americans rise to rid our nation’s political and judicial institutions of racists and white Christian nationalists who seek to limit the promise of America to a privileged class of descendants of white Europeans.

But rise they will. It is already happening across America. It will be unstoppable, just like the Civil Rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s.

But as the moral outrage over Callais grows week by week, we will be buffeted by political commentators who will discuss the 2026 midterms as if it were a game of Sudoku. That approach heightens the sense of uncertainty about 2026 and dismisses the passion and motivation of grassroots activists. We can’t let those stories create anxiety and fear.

Case in point: Friday’s New York Times featured a conversation between the editor of the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter, and an opinion editor of the Times, John Guida. The discussion focused on the effect of the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais on the 2026 midterms. On the surface, it was a rational discussion that posited that the Democratic advantage going into the midterms had shrunk but that the Democrats were still the favorites.

The problem with the discussion was that it was four degrees of separation from reality. Walter and Guida described the developments post-Callais as “extreme partisan gerrymandering”—ignoring the fact that the former slaveholding states are using the decision in Callais as cover for reinstituting the Jim Crow era.

To their credit, Walter and Guida acknowledged and discussed the fact that Black representation in Congress will shrink and that both parties may need to split majority-Black districts to amplify partisan advantage. But they treat the dilution of Black voting power as a subset of partisan gerrymandering, rather than acknowledging that the real thrust of Callais was to allow former slaveholding states to reinstate the Jim Crow Era.

That is a very big miss on the part of Walter and Guida. The wholesale disenfranchisement of 25 million Black Americans in the Old South is not the same as partisan gerrymandering. Partisan gerrymandering is a dirty business used by both parties to injure the other based on partisan beliefs.

Racial gerrymandering is not a species of partisan gerrymandering. It is an extension and proliferation of the effects of slavery. It does not disadvantage voters based on their partisan beliefs; it disadvantages voters based on their personhood and identities as the descendants of enslaved people. It is vile and depraved. It has angered tens of millions of people and is supercharging an already invigorated grassroots resistance movement.

The fact that Walter and Guida appear not to understand the seismic shock that just occurred in former slaveholding states suggests that their mental and statistical models about voting patterns in 2026 are deeply flawed. Black Americans and tens of millions of white, Latino, Asian, and Indigenous Americans are outraged by the reinstatement of Jim Crow laws.

There are new rounds of national and regional protests scheduled for May, June, and July (so far). Given the stingy coverage the Times gives to the No Kings Day protests, it is unsurprising that Guida would be unaware that the Callais decision has sparked a new round of pro-democracy protests and resistance.

Do not pay attention to any pundit telling you about the effect of Callais on the midterms unless they acknowledge up-front that Callais has relegated 25 million Black Americans to second-class citizenship by diluting their votes based on the color of their skin and their status as descendants of enslaved people. If the conversation starts at that point, it has a better chance of reaching reliable conclusions about the effect of Callais on the mood of voters.

Opportunity for Reader Engagement

Don’t Despair! Prepare: Unsung Grassroots Heroes.

Please join Elders for Sound Democracy on Wednesday, May 20, 2026 at 10:00 am Pacific / 1:00 pm Eastern for a conversation with a panel including four grassroots organizers from an elder who organizes a Concerned Citizens group at her retirement community in Wisconsin to an artist in Maine whose work includes projections on community buildings. Our organizers will share their stories, their work and what gives them joy. Together, we’ll reflect on their experiences and explore resources and strategies we can apply in our own communities as we work to create the world we want.

Elders for Sound Democracy is a project of Elders Action Network -- a non-partisan community of thousands of elders who are taking action to create a better world for our grandchildren, future generations, and all life. We are concerned about what we see happening all around us – and, we are doing something about it! Join our Elders for Sound Democracy community of like-minded elders working to: Protect and Strengthen Democracy—Now and for Future Generations!

Register here: Elders for Sound Democracy Community Meeting — Elders Action Network (There is no fee for this event, though we ask for donations after registration.)

Concluding Thoughts

Oh, boy! The cross-country flight home from the East Coast and the time change back to Pacific have caught up with me. I used to make the trip once a week, four times a month, for a couple of decades with no problem.

We should expect to see greater passion, urgency, and scale in the pro-democracy protest movement, which will translate into more victories and greater winning margins in 2026. People are outraged as never before. I truly believe that Callais will be the tipping point. Give it a week or two for people not paying attention to understand what happened. Be a messenger spreading the word that we must stand side-by-side with Black Americans as they fight, once again, for full voting rights as promised by the Constitution.

Talk to you Saturday morning!

Pro-democracy protest photos

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include City and state.]

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SURJ Redwood City, CA has been showing up and speaking out for democracy every Friday for the past 14 months!

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Our Visibility Brigade today in Lawrenceville, New Jersey! Standing up for those in the South who are facing the renewal of Jim Crow voter suppression and disenfranchisement.

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Lafayette, CO

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t was a warm day for our weekly Friday afternoon demonstration, Face Down Fascism, in Berkeley. Lots of honks!

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Here are photos of our enthusiastic crew  - almost 60 participating - at Gorman Road in Howard County (Maryland) over very busy I-95.  Both northbound and southbound were covered for two busy afternoon hours. There were lots of responses - honkings - below!

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So glad to be there with a small but mighty group on an overpass over I94 in north suburban Chicago! Signs over highway said “47 Doesn’t Care About You!” & “Resist Trump Lies!”

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Indivisible Northampton, MA: our weekly standout over route 91, messages northbound and southbound.

Fed up with SCOTUS!

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There’s something new to protest every Friday on the street corner in Roseville, MN. We had a gentleman come by and try to convince us how lucky we women are that we don’t live in Iran, and we shouldn’t complain. Otherwise, the drivers and pedestrians were very supportive.

May 14:  Thirty-five protestors show up for Hopewell, NJ’s weekly demo, 5:30-6:30

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Peterborough NH

I will hold my regular Saturday livestream at 9 a.m. Pacific / Noon Eastern on May 16. Join on your computer by navigating to the Today’s Edition homepage (“https://roberthubbell.substack.com”) or on your phone by opening the Substack App. Submit questions in advance, here.

Trump’s trip to China was a bust

Trump’s trip to China has been a bust, a fact clear from the opening remarks of both leaders. Trump resorted to cheap flattery, while Xi delivered a bracing warning to the US. Per a translation provided by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Xi said

The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations . . . If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy. . . [The question is] whether the two countries can transcend the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new model for relations between major powers.

Xi’s reference to the Thucydides Trap invokes a theory by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison. The theory posits that when a rising power (e.g. China) threatens to displace an established ruling power (e.g. US), the resulting tension makes armed conflict likely.

In short, Xi issued a threat to the US in his opening remarks, as Trump groveled before Xi, proclaiming Xi to be a great leader, a nice guy, and his friend. Xi returned none of the compliments.

As I noted yesterday, Trump lost all credibility with Xi when Trump backed down over tariffs after China threatened to cut-off the supply of China’s rare earth metals. And then Trump wasted a substantial amount of US firepower and staffing on an ill-fated war with Iran that has strengthened China’s hand. See The Hill, Admiral warns of cuts in Navy operations without supplemental Iran funding.

Per The Hill, Naval Operations Chief Admiral Daryl Caudle testified to Congress,

that without supplemental funding for the U.S. war in Iran, he will have to implement cuts in training, routine operations and personnel by July.

Caudle then said,

“The [fiscal 2026] budget didn’t bake in [Operation] Epic Fury. You see a large Navy force in the Middle East. So we’re burning bright … but it does come at cost, and it comes at operational costs.

“My record recruiting is going to be thwarted without additional funding . . . to pay enlistment and reenlistment bonuses.”

To be clear, these are dire predictions. Cutting personnel and training goes to the heart of the military’s mission. And we are in this situation because Trump and Hegseth do not understand the true costs of the war. With no path to peace or withdrawal, a long, costly deployment in the Middle East will degrade America’s military readiness until Trump finally loses all interest in his war against Iran and orders the military to invade another country.

Supreme Court allows telehealth prescription of Mifepristone to continue

Late on Thursday evening, the Supreme Court issued a 7-2 order that effectively allowed the continued telehealth prescription of Mifipristone by phone and mail. See Chris Geidner, Law Dork, SCOTUS keeps mifepristone available on current terms, including mailing of the abortion drug.

Justice Thomas wrote a dissent that highlighted his desire to criminalize abortion under the Comstock Act.

Latino groups unite to reverse Trump gains in 2024

Trump managed to capture enough support from Latino and Black voters in 2024 to make a difference in the election’s outcome. (Although no single group is ever responsible for a win or loss in an election, what matters is the total number of votes, and any group that is removed from the total can be seen as the key to winning or losing.)

The premise of the current round of racial gerrymandering by Republicans is that they will be able to hold together the fragile coalition they cobbled in 2024. That is a bad assumption that is lulling Republicans into a false sense of security in their gerrymandering efforts.

Democrats and Latino groups are working together to reverse the gains Trump made in 2024 among the Latino community. See NYTimes, Latino Groups Unite to Win Back Hispanic Voters for Democrats in Midterms. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

The groups working to reconnect the Latino community to the Democratic Party include UnidosUS Action Fund; Mi Familia Vota; the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC); and the Latino Victory Project.

A Republican operative quoted in the article illustrates the overconfidence that Republicans express about the gains they made in 2024. Per the Times

Latino Republican groups and political strategists say they are confident the momentum Republicans have generated will not be reversed.

We should take nothing for granted, but the confidence of the GOP is not supported by the facts.

Per the Times,

More recent data suggests the rightward shift may not be permanent.

In general elections in New Jersey, New York and Virginia last year, and in this year’s Texas primaries, many Latino voters who swung toward Mr. Trump in 2024 returned to the Democratic column. Recent polling from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center has found that majorities of Latinos are critical of the Trump administration’s immigration and economic policies, the two key issues that drove Latinos to the polls in 2024.

Katharine Pichardo, the president and chief executive of the Latino Victory Project, said the next effort will ensure groups are engaging Latino voters at a scale no single organization can reach.

So, Latino voter groups are uniting to create a nationwide effort, recent elections have shown a decided swing against Trump in the Latino community, and even more recent polling shows that Trump has lost his advantage among Latinos on the issues of immigration and the economy.

Again, we can take nothing for granted, but the facts favor Democrats regaining support from Latino communities heading into 2026. And if one of the key premises of the GOP gerrymandering is that Republicans will maintain their 2024 gains, we have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent!

Opportunity for reader engagement.

Fractured: The Stories of Those Left Behind
Fractured is a new social media campaign that bears witness to the sustained human impact of the cruel and unconstitutional acts committed by ICE against our immigrant communities. To date, no one has explored the full ripple effects of ICE’s detentions, violence and murders on family, friends, neighbors, employers and others. That is our goal.

Through emotionally powerful stories rooted in American ideals of fairness and dignity, Fractured raises public awareness of these human costs and documents this reality for future accountability.

To learn more about our project, check out the Fractured website here. https://fractured-stories.com/

Concluding Thoughts

One reason this moment is so hard is that the daily news stream does not always distinguish between possibilities and actualities, between threats and actions, or between propaganda and truth. Trump threatens and blusters constantly. But few of those threats materialize. One reason the threats never materialize is grassroots activists' resistance.

Reader Sam Daley-Harris sent the following email in response to the reader who said she felt that her weekly protest actions were not making a difference. Sam wrote,

Here’s something else most people don’t know about that offers some hope: something that groups have helped accomplish in Trump II through transformational advocacy.

• President Trump proposed a 55% cut for FY26 to the Environmental Protection Agency for FY26. In late January 2026, President Trump signed into law an appropriations bill that provided a 3.5% cut to the EPA for FY26, 16 times smaller than his proposed 55% cut.

• President Trump proposed a 91% cut in FY26 to Maternal and Child Health globally, a program that helped drive a 66 percent decline in global child deaths over the last 42 years, until Elon Musk came along. On February 3, 2026, President Trump signed into law a bill that approved the full $915 million for Maternal and Child Health globally for FY26, not his 91% cut.

• President Trump proposed turning the Housing Choice Vouchers program into a block grant with other housing programs and cutting them by 43%. Housing Choice Vouchers helped more than 5 million people in 2.2 million low-income families pay their rent. Instead of a cut from its FY25 level of $32.15 billion, the program was increased to $34.96 billion for FY26 and signed into law by the President.

Behind these acts of resistance is concerned citizen action that your readers deserve to know about.

In each of the above instances, draconian cuts did not materialize; instead, the cuts were a fraction of those threatened by Trump, the budget remained flat year to year, or the budget for the benefits actually increased.

Resistance matters! Keep up the good work!

Pro-democracy protest photos

[send to rbhubbell@gmail.com; include city and state]

On Jan. 21, 2026, NYC’s Hudson River Park Trust announced it would not renew ICE’s parking contract at Pier 40 when the current agreement expired at the end of June 2026.

So now the agency is checking out new parking buildings, including Metropolis Parking at 18 Morton Street in the West Village. Several vans used to transport detainees are parked there, so neighbors showed up to protest this afternoon.

The action was organized by HandsOffNYC, Rise and Resist, and Chelsea Neighbor United, among others.

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Rochester NY Thursday

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Silver Spring, MD

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South Boulder County Indivisible VB, Lou

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Thursday, May 14 during morning rush hour over I-94 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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West L.A. freeway brigade - May 14, 2026.  Join us on Thursday mornings 7:30 to 9:00 AM, Palms Blvd overpass over 405 frwy.

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Lexington MA 5/13/26. Every Wednesday since February 5, 2025 with Captain John Parker...”If they mean to have a war, let it begin here.”

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Melbourne Beach, Fl, protest

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W 41st St Bridge over I-83, Baltimore, MD

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Melbourne Beach, Fl, protest

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Hartford CT 5/14/26 Visibility Brigade

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We will not be distracted. Epstein/trump survivors are not forgotten.

Pasadena, CA 5/14/26

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Asheville, NC

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Visibility brigade County California Tuesday through Thursday for the morning commute!

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Englewood Florida

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Chevy Chase MD Wednesday May 13

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Milton, MA Route I-93 overpass.

Milton Visibility Brigade and Milton Indivisible.

We have been standing out here during the evening rush hour every Wednesday since April 2025!

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Instead of returning with a significant foreign-policy victory, Trump is hoping that 16 chief executives will engage in normal-course business negotiations, which Trump will repackage as the fruit of his brilliant negotiating skills. See Politico, How the Trump-Xi meeting became ‘the shrinking summit’. (“President Donald Trump’s ambitions for his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping have shrunk from ‘grand bargain’ to a plea for help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a push for small trade deals.”)

Pathetic!

Trump lost US leverage over China when he attempted to impose illegal tariffs on goods manufactured in China. China threatened retaliation, including by withholding rare-earth metals, and Trump backed down, forever altering the balance of power between the US and China. It has been downhill for the US since then, with China effectively exercising veto power over major US foreign policy decisions involving China. See Foreign Policy Magazine, America Has Lost Its Leverage Over China: How Trump and Xi Could Cement Beijing’s Advantage for Years to Come.

Per Foreign Policy Magazine,

China emerged from the 2025 trade war in a position of relative strength. . . . As predicted, after Beijing blocked exports of key rare-earth elements and critical minerals, threatening the viability of U.S. manufacturing, the Trump administration quickly sought an off-ramp from the trade war it had launched. Chinese officials saw their assumptions vindicated. Their confidence soared.

An earlier wariness of Trump’s unpredictability gave way to near certainty that Beijing could manipulate his administration with ease. Chinese officials concluded that they could negotiate with the United States on equal footing and that, if anything, China held the stronger hand.

Worse, as Trump lost leverage over China, US farmers lost $34 billion in foreign trade (much of it with China) in 2025 due to tariffs that were later ruled unconstitutional. See The Hill, (2/6/26) Farming experts warn Trump tariffs endanger US agriculture.

The 2025 agricultural losses will compound in 2026 because Trump imposed a new round of round 10% global tariffs, which have also been ruled illegal by the US Court of International Trade. In short, grain and bean crop farmers are hurting because of Trump’s botched tariffs, and they blame Trump and his mishandling of the US’s relationship with China.

Everything Trump touches dies. Including hard-fought, long-nurtured US foreign policy power. I wrote on Monday that Trump would “slouch toward China” for the summit. On Friday, it is clear that he will “slink back home” as a defeated man.

Trump prepares to loot the US Treasury.

From 2018 to 2020 (when Trump was president and in charge of the IRS), a third-party IRS contractor leaked portions of Trump’s tax returns, which showed he paid $715.00 in taxes in 2016 and zero taxes for most prior years. The contractor was convicted and is now serving a five-year prison term. That was not enough for Trump. He and his sons sued the United States for fantasy damages of $10 billion.

When reports emerged that Trump and the DOJ—headed by his former criminal defense attorney, Todd Blanche—were negotiating a settlement, the federal judge overseeing the case raised the alarm. She questioned whether Trump and the US were sufficiently adverse to constitute a “case or controversy” within the meaning of the US Constitution. In the absence of a genuine case or controversy, Trump’s case should be dismissed for lack of subject matter jurisdiction.

The federal judge then asked private lawyers to advise the court on whether there is sufficient adversity between Trump the private citizen and Trump the unitary executive, who claims the authority to force the IRS to settle with Trump the private citizen. A briefing deadline on that question is set for May 20, 2026.

There are reports that Trump is attempting to settle the case before the hearing on whether there is a case or controversy under Article III of the Constitution.

The situation of a president suing the federal government that he controls is novel. But there are strands of case law suggesting that the federal judge has inherent power to determine whether a fraud has been perpetrated upon the court. 1

The legal machinations matter less than this astounding fact: Trump is trying to shake down the American taxpayers for $10 billion. While he should be (and probably will be) stopped, what matters is the attempt to loot $10 billion from the US Treasury, not whether he succeeds.

At a time when Americans are making a choice between buying gas to drive to work and purchasing groceries, Trump’s grotesque demand for $10 billion for a disclosure that has not resulted in actual damage to Trump is obscene.

Here’s the point: Any politician worried about the electoral prospects of his party would not make a request that would further damage his party’s chances in the upcoming elections. But not Trump. His greed is overwhelming and all-consuming. Even though gifting himself $10 billion would be a devastating blow to the GOP, he can’t stop himself.

Trump claims that he will donate the money to charity if he is awarded damages from the government he controls. We have no reason to believe Trump will do so or that he will accurately account for any alleged charitable awards. Moreover, siphoning $10 billion from the Treasury to Trump is not how the Constitution mandates that funds in the Treasury be appropriated. Congress is responsible for expenditures, not the president.

CODA

Trump is looting the Treasury and groveling before China for a lifeline in Iran as wholesale inflation rose to 6% per year. See CNBC, Wholesale inflation jumps 6% in April on annual basis, biggest increase since 2022.

We are in the midst of a natural experiment to see how low Trump’s favorability ratings can drop. About 47% of Americans believe aliens have visited Earth. 28% of Americans believe that Bigfoot exists. Trump has already dropped below the “aliens have visited Earth” benchmark and is headed to “Bigfoot exists” territory.

War Powers Resolution in Senate falls short by one vote—John Fetterman’s.

After seven attempts by Democrats to pass a war powers act resolution limiting Trump’s ability to continue his war on Iran, the resolution fell one vote short, 49 to 50. Democratic Senator John Fetterman crossed over to support Republicans in opposition to the resolution. See The New Republic, John Fetterman Single-Handedly Tanks Effort to Rein Trump in on Iran.

Three Republican senators (Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul) joined Democrats in supporting the motion.

To become law, the motion would need to pass in the House and be signed by Trump. The former is doubtful, and the latter will never happen. So, John Fetterman’s vote was not the deciding factor in limiting the war on Iran, but it is further evidence that John Fetterman does not deserve to be re-nominated as a Democratic senator.

South Carolina legislature reverses course and will eliminate last remaining Black majority district

On Tuesday, the South Carolina legislature surprised everyone and quashed a proposed congressional map that would have eliminated South Carolina’s only Black majority. On Wednesday, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said he would call lawmakers back for a special session to redraw the state’s congressional map and eliminate its lone majority-Black district. See Politico, McMaster plans to call special session to redraw South Carolina House map.

Although the legislature’s vote will not take place until next week, the procedural move by Gov. McMaster means that a 7-0 gerrymandered map can pass with a simple majority in both chambers of South Carolina’s legislature.

This is a developing story and subject to change, but it appears that South Carolina will eliminate the single Black-majority district—a seat currently held by Rep. James Clyburn.

Opportunity for Reader Engagement.

Latino Victory Event in DC.

I look forward to meeting readers who will attend the Latino Talks event sponsored by Latino Victory on Thursday, May 14, 2026, in Washington, D.C. I will moderate a discussion with Reps. Robert Garcia and Joaquin Castro during the program. Jill and I will be able to visit with readers in the theater before and after the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

Markers for Democracy, May 15 event at 10:00 am Eastern.

Join Markers For Democracy, Downtown Nasty Women Social Group, and Team Min on Friday, May 15th at 10 am ET for postcarding and conversation with Saul Austerlitz, the author of seven books, including his most recent, “How to Assemble an Activist.” His work has been published in the New York Times, The Atlantic, the Washington Post, The Guardian, Vanity Fair, and other publications. He is the cofounder of Brooklyn Resisters, an Indivisible group in New York City. For a taste of Saul’s thoughts about activism, read these two recent pieces in The Guardian, “I’ve spent a decade fighting Trump. Here are six lessons I’ve learned.,” and “How do we get more men to join the anti-Trump resistance.”

Registration link: https://www.mobilize.us/markersfordemocracy/event/952043/

Concluding Thoughts

I don’t like writing newsletters where most of the news is about the many ways that Trump and the Republicans are undermining democracy and abusing Americans. Truth be told, there were more negative stories to report today (Pete Hegseth leading a white Christian nationalist rally on the National Mall this weekend), but enough was enough.

The point is not merely to recite the many ways in which Trump is failing or engaging in public corruption. It is to remind us that Trump’s historic unfavorability ratings will get worse, which is an opportunity for us. It is a paradox: The worse he is, the better our prospects look in November 2026 and 2028.

I wish we were not caught in this perverse political dilemma. But we are, and we need to know what is happening so that we can dispel unreasonable fears and predictions of doom.

We are winning despite the chaos and corruption that serve as oxygen for the Trump administration. Almost every story in today’s newsletter will translate into decreasing favorability ratings for Trump. By the time the midterms arrive, he should be at unfavorability levels never before experienced by any U.S. president. If the past is prologue, Trump’s historic unpopularity will hand us a generational opportunity to redeem democracy. We need only be bold enough to seize the opportunity offered to us.

Talk to you tomorrow!

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Aoude v. Mobil Oil Corp., 892 F.2d 1115 (1st Cir. 1989) says that a fraud on the court occurs where “it can be demonstrated, clearly and convincingly, that a party has sentiently set in motion some unconscionable scheme calculated to interfere with the judicial system’s ability impartially to adjudicate a matter by improperly influencing the trier of fact or unfairly hampering the presentation of the opposing party’s claim or defense.”

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Pro-democracy protest photos

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state.]

Tuesday’s Bridge Brigade over the 210 freeway in La Verne, CA 

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Indivisible San Jose Visibility Bridge protest.  San Jose, CA 

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Every week. American Tobacco Trail Pedestrian Bridge over I-40.

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This Portland Oregon weekly protest continues with these frankly sad and obnoxious counter protesters harassing and filming us. We carry on regardless. And we have better music!

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This is what it looks like to protest the ICE CoreCivic Immigration Processing Center located 15 miles outside the town of California City, which is located in the Mojave Desert 100 miles north of Los Angeles. CoreCivic is a for-profit private prison operator which re-opened this shuttered state prison facility without proper permits.

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Wanted to share some picks from our VB in Newport News, Virginia.

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Our Rush Hour Brigade lined up à la Burma Shave in Loveland, CO —lots of honks and thumbs up!

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[To] what extent are Americans’ financial situation motivating you to make a deal [with Iran]?

Trump responded:

Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters, when I’m talking about Iran, they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation, I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.

Trump’s response was callous but truthful. He doesn’t think about anyone else. Trump’s momentary truthfulness could not have come at a worse time for Republicans, who are staring into the midterm abyss.

These are anxious times, but Democrats have reason to be hopeful. Why? There is almost no situation that Trump cannot make worse—and on Tuesday, Trump was in hole-digging overdrive. With nearly six months remaining before the midterms, Trump has plenty of time to make a bad situation worse. Much. And he is doing his very best to make that happen.

We cannot rely on Trump and Republicans to defeat themselves, but after a week of bad news on the gerrymandering front, it is appropriate to recognize that Trump’s historic unpopularity is the dominant factor in the midterm elections. Trump’s unpopularity will overwhelm the GOP’s gerrymandering successes.

That fact does not mean that we can relent. It does not mean that winning the midterms will be easy. But it does mean that we can reject the defeatism being peddled by many in the media. Yes, gerrymandering matters. But it will not decide the midterms. Voters will. And Trump is doing his best to alienate voters of every political persuasion.

As of Tuesday, the economy is cratering. Consumers are nervous and hurting. Inflation is spiking. The war on Iran has boomeranged. Trump’s vanity projects—the ballroom, the arch, the reflecting pool—are overbudget and rife with corruption.

Trump chose the day we learned that inflation had risen to 3.8%—the highest rate in nearly three years—to tell Americans that he didn’t care about their financial situation. See Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index.

Inflation is now eating wage growth. See CNBC, CPI inflation April 2026: Prices rose 3.8% annually. Per economist Heather Long of Navy Federal Credit Union:

For the first time in three years, inflation is eating up all wage gains. This is a setback for middle-class and lower-income households and they know it.

The bad news for Trump is that his fingerprints are all over the spike in inflation: The increase in energy prices is driven by Trump’s war on Iran, which is, in turn, driving inflation. See Deseret News, U.S. inflation spikes as Iran war continues to drive up energy costs.

American consumers understand who is to blame for inflation: Trump.

That brutal truth explains the latest devastating polling results for Trump. See CNN, Americans’ anger about the economy hits Trump and Republicans’ midterm prospects.

Per the CNN poll of 1,499 Americans from April 30 to May 4,

77%—including a majority of Republicans–—say that Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community. . . . And Trump’s approval rating stands at 30% on the economy, a career low.

Read that again. 77% of Americans believe Trump is responsible for inflation. Worse, for Trump, a strong majority of Americans believe that Trump’s tariffs (65%) and war on Iran (75%) are the specific causes of inflation. Tariffs and the war on Iran were choices by Trump, decisions made by Trump with no input from Congress.

The grim economic news about inflation was released amid mounting corruption and incompetence by the Trump administration. Without notice or approval, Trump drained the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall. He awarded the contract to “repair” the reflecting pool to “a guy” who (allegedly) painted the pool at one of his golf resorts. Trump claimed the initial repairs would cost $1.8 million. See Raw Story, Trump gave reflecting pool contract to his touted ‘pool guy’ — who doesn’t do pools.

On Tuesday, the NYTimes reported that the cost of repairs to the Reflecting Pool had ballooned to $13.1 million dollars. See NYTimes, Reflecting Pool Repairs Appear Uneven and Behind Schedule, Officials Say. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

After the Times reported that the cost had risen to $13.1 million, Trump changed his story and claimed that he did not know the contractor doing the work. Trump said,

I didn’t give out the contract, ‘Interior’ did, to a contractor I did not know, and have never used before.

It is a classic Trump ploy; he is a gladhander who knows everyone until things go bad, then he claims not to know the people he is throwing under the bus.

Which brings us to Trump’s war on Iran (and Pete Hegseth’s job security).

On Tuesday, the New York Times released a major report that raised serious doubts about the effectiveness of the US war on Iran and the truthfulness of the administration’s reporting on the war. See NYTimes, U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities (Gift article, accessible to all.)

Per the NYTimes,

The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities.

Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.

Uh, wow. If Iran has 30 missile sites that are still operational along the Strait of Hormuz, it effectively controls the 20% of the world’s seaborne oil—and has been elevated to the status of regional power it did not possess prior to Trump’s ill-considered war.

See Robert Kagan in The Atlantic, Checkmate in Iran. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

Per Kagan,

Defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character. It can neither be repaired nor ignored. There will be no return to the status quo ante, no ultimate American triumph that will undo or overcome the harm done. The Strait of Hormuz will not be “open,” as it once was.

With control of the strait, Iran emerges as the key player in the region and one of the key players in the world.

The roles of China and Russia, as Iran’s allies, are strengthened; the role of the United States, substantially diminished.

Far from demonstrating American prowess, as supporters of the war have repeatedly claimed, the conflict has revealed an America that is unreliable and incapable of finishing what it started.

Trump started the war in Iran for many reasons: Because Netanyahu threatened that Israel would act unilaterally; to distract from his involvement in Epstein’s criminal enterprise; and because he wanted to be recognized as a “wartime president.”

There is no path to success for Trump in Iran. The unwinding of the war will be inconclusive, ambiguous, and the first derivative of defeat for the US. And in the interim, Trump will be blamed for all negative economic consequences that occur after February 28, 2026—the day on which Trump attacked Iran.

As Trump flails on every front, Americans are clear about his responsibility for the many debacles besetting America and its people. That creates a major opportunity for Democrats to create a wave election of historic proportions. That won’t happen without our hard work, but we are fully engaged in the fight. We must not relent; indeed, we must redouble our efforts.

We have every reason to be confident, but no reason to be complacent!

Opportunities for Reader Engagement

BigTentUSA discusses the Callais decision

On Thursday, May 14 at 7pm ET, Lauren Groh-Wargo, CEO of Fair Fight, joins BigTentUSA alongside Tennessee State Rep. Justin Pearson for a rapid-response conversation on the sweeping impact of the Louisiana v. Callais decision. We’ll break down what the ruling means, how it’s already reshaping voting rights across the South, and why communities of color face renewed threats to fair representation. Rep. Pearson will also share the latest on what’s happening in Tennessee and the growing fights over representation and democracy at the state level.

Together, we’ll discuss how people across the country can show up in solidarity, turn concern into action, and help defend the promise of fair representation for every community.

Please use this link to register.

Join Volunteer Blue to learn how to mobilize for the midterms!

Learn how you and your community can make a difference in the 2026 midterm elections. Learn what is working.

Volunteer Blue will host a special Zoom event on May 13th 4pm ET. Please join and invite others. RSVP: https://www.mobilize.us/volunteerblue/event/942977/

Learn from Minnesota organizer Doran Schrantz how the infrastructure they built in 2025 led to effective mobilization to defeat ICE, and how they continue that momentum to train and activate Minnesotans for the elections. Doran will discuss how volunteers everywhere can replicate that impact. Swing Left’s Yasmin Radjy will explain how volunteers are using new ways to reach voters in swing districts. Also learn how remote volunteers recruited 1,900 active in-district volunteers in North Carolina and how Donuts + Democracy registered, educated, and mobilized more than 114,000 students at 450+ events on nearly 150 college campuses.

RSVP: https://www.mobilize.us/volunteerblue/event/942977/

Concluding Thoughts.

I frequently write analyses “ahead” of the news cycle, i.e., I offer my opinions as stories are breaking. Sometimes I feel like I am out on a limb by myself. Other times, I feel like I am offering a solution that no one else is promoting. So, it is always gratifying to see other commentators whose views align with mine. (Or maybe, my views are aligning with theirs, but you get the point.)

So, I highly recommend The Big Picture, Jay Kuo, The South’s New Maps Are A Disgrace. But Also, Possibly, A Massive Self-Own. I think you will find Jay’s detailed analysis insightful, realistic, and cautiously hopeful about how much (or little) Republicans have achieved with their racial gerrymandering.

I also recommend Josh Marshall’s strong call for Supreme Court reform in Talking Points Memo, With the Corrupt Supreme Court, It’s Calvinball All the Way Down.

As Marshall notes, the tide is shifting regarding Supreme Court reform. Given the gut punch of Callais followed by the actions in Virginia, Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida, mainstream Democrats are seeing the wisdom of radical reform of the Supreme Court. Don’t believe me; read Josh Marshall!

Here’s the important point: The tide is shifting, not just with respect to Supreme Court reform, but with respect to everything Trump has touched. We have a moment of great opportunity to repair damage to the Constitution and reestablish the rule of law.

We must be bold enough to meet that moment. It could arrive in January 2029, the first date for a possible Democratic trifecta in Washington. If we don’t act quickly, the planets may not align for another decade. Fortune favors the bold. Let’s be bold in the defense of democracy!

Pro-democracy protest photos

[Send to rbhubbell@gmail.com; include city and state.]

These are from our thrice-weekly Tesla Takedowns on South Glebe Rd. in Arlington, Va. 

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In response to the racist SCOTUS decision to further erode voting rights in the US, Billerica United Indivisible  of Massachusetts made a statement in the cold rain on 5/9/26.

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One of the best messages in one year on this bridge!  Lots of honks. We think they were getting LOUD!!  Providence RI

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Rise and Resist weekly Truth Tuesday at FOX news headquarters.

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Moral Monday Witness for Peace at the White House (May 11, 2026) led by Reverend William J. Barber Jr.

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Pasadena, CA

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Key Biscayne, FL

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Today’s message from the Raleigh Bridge Brigade

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Healthcare protest on the University of Iowa Pentecrest

Iowa City, Iowa

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Los Angeles, CA on 5-08-26. And this is even a Costco gas station. Stickers from Etsy.

Trump and the GOP are underwater on every major issue that helped Trump win in 2024. The wave of outrage that is building among voters should overwhelm the unfair advantage created by the racially charged gerrymandering sweeping the Old South. The issues on which Trump is underwater include: The economy. Immigration. Forever wars. Tariffs. Epstein. The economy. The economy.

Against all logic, Trump managed to make significant gains in 2024 among Black and Latino voters, especially men. But SCOTUS and the Southern state legislatures are dusting off their white hoods and resurrecting the ideology and tactics of white Christian nationalism that served as the scaffolding for the Jim Crow Era. With the enthusiastic backing of the Supreme Court, Trump and the GOP have targeted Black and Latino Americans with voter suppression, mass deportation, and racial profiling.

SCOTUS and Southern state legislatures have dropped all pretense: They are unabashedly racist and do not care who knows about their depraved intentions. They are engaged in a race against the extinction of a party that represents a shrinking minority of the American electorate. Whatever efforts can expand the event horizon are worth the risk to Republicans because they have no vision, no values, and no principles to offer the American voter.

Republicans are at war with their own future: The more they gleefully eradicate Black majority districts in the Old South, the more they alienate the Black voters whose support they desperately need to remain a national party.

By definition, racial gerrymandering distributes Black voting power into new districts. True, Black voters will comprise the minority within those new boundaries, but they can make the difference in flipping gerrymandered districts by joining with newly motivated Democrats and MAGA voters who are beginning to realize they have been betrayed.

On Monday, the corrupt, racist Supreme Court once again used the shadow docket to violate the Purcell Doctrine. The Court allowed Alabama to suspend an ongoing election and substitute new gerrymandered maps in place of maps ordered by a federal court that found Alabama had violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in drawing congressional boundaries. See Chris Geidner, Law Dork (Substack), SCOTUS majority gives Alabama GOP a chance to use a map already found to be unconstitutional.

The naked racism of the former slaveholding states reinstituting the Jim Crow Era with the imprimatur of Chief Justice John Roberts is a self-defeating strategy. See Politico, op-ed by Jonathan Martin, Trump’s Redistricting Push Could Cost Republicans More Than It Gains.

Per Martin,

In their rush to grab an extra seat or two, Southern Republicans should consider what may happen to their 2024 gains with Black voters.

Do you think GOP nominees will get 21 percent of Black men, as Trump is estimated to have received in 2024, in future elections when you’re handing Democrats perhaps the easiest racial messaging they’ve had in the post-Civil Rights era? In case you needed a primer, that would be: You can’t trust Republicans, they only want to silence your voice. [¶]

Given Trump’s unpopularity, the price at the pump and the precedent of most every modern midterm, this was already shaping up to be a forbidding election year for Republicans. To pick at the rawest of American wounds as the country marks 250 years would only turbocharge Democratic enthusiasm and turnout.

Finally, there’s a reason why the non-aggression pact between old-school Black Democrats and white Republicans endured in the South over the last few redistricting cycles. Both got safe seats.

You draw a Clyburn, for example, out of his district and his former voters could help create new, competitive seats in South Carolina in a Democratic-tilting year such as this — as Clyburn himself said out loud to CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday.

See also, The Hill, Karl Rove says GOP redistricting push may have unintended results.

Yes, we should be righteously angry and upset about the wholesale dilution of Black voting power. But we should also see a historic opportunity to reclaim districts that should rightly reflect the voting power and electoral interests of Black Americans.

And then there is the fact that former slaveholding states have not clearly thought through an official policy of disenfranchising Black voters. A nascent effort is emerging to boycott the Southeastern Conference of the NCAA. The Southeastern Conference is the most powerful and lucrative collegiate conference in many sports, including football, basketball, and baseball. Leading voices in the Black community are calling on Black athletes to boycott SEC schools in states that are dismantling Black majority districts. The movement is growing; logic tells us that it will expand far beyond sports to include travel, entertainment, and industry. See The Source, SEC Athlete Boycott Suggested After Supreme Court Redistricting Ruling, and The Grio, Black legislators lead resistance after gutting of Voting Rights Act

Trump to bring sixteen American CEOs to China.

Proving that they have no ability to “read the room,” sixteen US CEOs are accompanying Trump on his trip to China. See CNBC, Trump invites Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink for Xi China summit.

Anti-billionaire fever is running high in America. Accepting a seat on Trump’s Billionaire Boondoggle is bad PR and shows disdain for the tens of millions of investors and customers of the following companies:

• Elon Musk, Tesla

• Tim Cook, Apple

• Larry Fink, BlackRock

• Kelly Ortberg, Boeing

• Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone

• Brian Sikes, Cargill

• Jane Fraser, Citigroup

• Jim Anderson, Coherent

• H. Lawrence Culp Jr., GE Aerospace

• David Solomon, Goldman Sachs

• Jacob Thaysen, Illumina

• Michael Miebach, Mastercard

• Dina Powell McCormick, Meta Platforms

• Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron Technology

• Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm

• Ryan McInerney, Visa

The fact that Trump’s advisers are allowing him to be surrounded by billionaires as the US economy is being hammered by rising gasoline prices shows how out of touch Trump continues to be.

The ballroom has become a universal symbol of his obsession with building grand monuments to himself, a monument now priced at $1 billion. The repainting of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool has ballooned in price to $13.1 million — more than seven times Trump’s original promise of $1.8 million.” See Philadelphia Inquirer, Reflecting Pool repairs to cost $13.1 million after Trump promised $1.8 million.

Many of the billionaires accompanying Trump on his junket to China have funded the ill-begotten ballroom and blue-bottomed reflecting pond. They are hopelessly conflicted and spectacularly self-unaware. Having made it to the top, they have apparently forgotten the leadership skills and intuition that got them there. Accountability and pushback are coming, and each will rue the day they decided that a free plane ride and photo-opportunity with Trump was worth cratering their reputations.

Iran war

The head of Iran’s parliament taunted the US on Monday, saying that the longer Trump refused to accept Iran’s peace proposal, “the more the US taxpayers will pay” for the war. See The Hill, Iran’s top negotiator: Accept our proposal or ‘American taxpayers will pay for it.’

Among other items, Iran is demanding compensation for damage inflicted by the US war against Iran, and permanent Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. (See above story.) Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed with no prospect for opening anytime soon. Sadly, the US economy will only get worse as the conflict drags on. See Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy. (“[F]or every additional month it’s closed, oil prices go up $10 to $15 a barrel.”)

If the Strait stays closed for several more months and oil rises an additional $10/barrel per month on top of current prices, Americans could expect a monthly increase of 25 cents per gallon at the pump, on top of whatever elevated prices they are already paying. See Oil to Gas Price Calculator.

Since the most optimistic estimates suggest it would take four to six months to reopen the Strait, the national average gasoline price seems destined to reach $5.50 a gallon. And that is an optimistic scenario.

When combined with the virulent racist attacks on Black Americans by former slaveholding states, a dollar increase in gas prices by August will continue to drive Trump’s popularity down to unplumbed depths. Add to those debacles the AI threat to jobs while Trump pals around with the princes of Silicon Valley, the likely continued stalemate in Iran, the stonewalling in the Epstein investigation, and Trump’s insistence on re-litigating the 2020 election.

In short, Democrats have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent.

Independent Dan Osborn’s strong showing in recent Nebraska polling

Dan Osborn is an independent candidate running against incumbent Republican US Senator Pete Ricketts in ruby-red Nebraska. Recent polling shows that independent Dan Osborn is leading incumbent Pete Ricketts by five points. (The two Democratic candidates are trailing Ricketts by 9 points and 16 points, respectively.) Read a press release about the poll here: Tavern Research: Ricketts Has an Independent Problem in Nebraska.

Supporting an electable independent in Nebraska is one way to deny Republicans a Senate majority. Indeed, electing an independent in Nebraska may be the key to reducing Republicans below the 50-vote threshold, which would deny JD Vance the opportunity to serve as a “tie breaker.”

I interviewed Dan Osborn one-on-one at my home in April in a “closed session” that was available to Today’s Edition readers only. (Appearances by US Senate candidates are traditionally closed events.) Many readers expressed interest in seeing the interview, so the campaign has released several clips to be shared in this newsletter.

Read more about Dan Osborn here (and donate, if you choose): Dan Osborn | Independent for U.S. Senate.

Video clips of Robert Hubbell's interview with Dan Osborn:

Concluding Thoughts.

I received a note from a reader who said that she was returning to reading the newsletter after a several-month break. She said she stopped reading because she found my outlook “too optimistic,” but returned to the newsletter after the Supreme Court decision in Callais and the Virginia Supreme Court decision striking down the redistricting initiative.

You would be surprised how often I hear from people that I am too optimistic. I usually hear that comment from activists and organizers who believe (in good faith) that the best way to motivate people is to focus on the downside risk of failing to stop Trump and his nefarious plans.

I disagree with that approach at the most fundamental level. Indeed, I believe that the “frighten people” approach to motivation simply reinforces the Republican plan to flood the zone with bad news so that Democrats will give up and quit.

The way I see it, the world has more than enough sources of bad news and doomsayers. If my viewpoint counterbalances those thousands of naysayers just a tiny bit, then we haven’t even begun to correctly calibrate the scales.

I try to temper my optimism with realism. Indeed, my Substack tagline says, “Citizen. Optimist. Realist.”

We should not delude ourselves with “just so” stories. But that isn’t the real danger we face. The biggest threat to democracy is a credulous media that is willing to repeat every ludicrous threat and ridiculous trial balloon floated by Trump that is designed to spread panic and confusion. You may not recall, but during the most intense ICE operations in Minneapolis, Trump had many people believing that he was days away from invoking the Insurrection Act or declaring “martial law” (something that doesn’t really exist in the US).

I spent weeks trying to convince people that Trump’s threats of invoking the Insurrection Act were hollow. Some people accused me of being “naive.”

We are facing similar threats today. Trump says he is going to use the Postal Service to enforce eligibility for mail voting. He won’t. Steve Bannon says Trump will deploy ICE to polling stations. He won’t.

Should we take those threats seriously? Yes. But you know what else we should take seriously? We should take seriously our ability to stop those threats. We should take seriously the monumental incompetence of a man who has no filter between his overactive imagination and his mouth. Just because Trump posts something on Truth Social at 2:00 a.m. does not mean that he or his administration has the discipline, organization, and follow-through to make it happen.

Trump does not have superpowers. You know who does? Us. We have the most important superpower of all: We can vote.

So, yeah. That makes me optimistic about our long-term ability to reclaim democracy and reestablish the rule of law.

If that optimistic outlook is too much for you, please consult almost any other news source for a bracing dose of pessimism. When you have had enough, come back here. This community will be waiting for you with open arms!

Talk to you tomorrow!

Pro-Democracy Protest photos

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state.]

Visibility Brigade of Paramus NJ 

May 11th 2026

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Louisville/Superior CO

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I-89 N&S, Enfield, NH, Mother’s Day

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I have been standing outside the Supreme Court at least once a week since July 5, 2024, to protest John Roberts’s execrable and completely unconstitutional presidential immunity decision, and I have met so many amazing, courageous, good-hearted people. Too bad the justices never come out to see who’s on their sidewalk. Or read their own building: “Equal Justice under Law.”

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Englewood Florida

Author’s Note: I edited the above photo to remove the “u” from the F-ck. I did so to prevent spam filters from bouncing this newsletter for including obscenity

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Randolph, MA

The Randolph Indivisible Group held an overpass standout Saturday, May 9, 2026, to protest Citizens’ Bank’s funding of ICE prisons.

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Bend, OR

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Yorktown Hts., NY. Happy Mother’s Day to you!

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Brewster, NY train station protesting ICE every Saturday 2-3pm.

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Posters from Vancouver, WA

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From Borrego Springs, CA. This is what Borregans do on protest day when temps are due to reach 105 degrees.

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Latest message from Raleigh Bridge Brigade in Raleigh, NC

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May 10th 2026 - Bridge Brigades in Franconia, NH and Bethlehem, NH

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Sometimes we have to come together even if their mothers are MAGA’s

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Protest Posters from Vancouver WA

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Indivisible San Jose, San Jose CA.  A bigger crowd than expected protested on the Overpass today. We had beautiful weather, music, homemade cookies and FUN! 

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4 of us at our weekly Tesla Takedown outside of Tesla Motors on Centinela, Los Angeles 5/10/26

Yes, we are STILL doing this.

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Superior, CO Tesla dealership -- every Saturday since March 2025: “Fascism won’t go away on its own. It needs your help.”

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Boulder, CO

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Citizens Bank in Copley Square, in Boston today.  Corner of Dartmouth and Boylston Streets. 

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Kalamazoo Visibility Brigade 05.07.26 

What a dedicated group! One passerby went up on the bridge and gave everyone a thank-you hug yesterday! Every Action Matters!

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West Hartford CT Saturday rally

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Dave Webers Protest / Work in Progress ~ 1776 Revival

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From Cincinnati, OH, May 10.

Whenever J.D. Vance comes “home” to Cincinnati, to a house he lived in for a very short time before being elected to the Senate, he inevitably comes in at rush hour and screws up traffic for the entire city. Protestors are located about a block from his house.

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May 10, 2026.

Anchorage, Alaska.

Mother’s Day?  Rain?  So what.  Several of us did both protests. 

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As of Sunday evening, the major media outlets are treating the states’ gerrymandering battle as if it were the 2026 midterm elections. It is not. True, gerrymandering will likely affect some races at the margins in a wave election. But the midterm election will be decided by tens of millions of Americans who are fed up with Trump and motivated by righteous anger and a deep sense of betrayal. Still, the partisan battle has become irresistible to the media, as political insiders rush to their favorite reporters with gossip that matters only to the consultants and pundits who peddle it.

Do not be distracted. We are winning. Trump is in freefall. While we cannot rely on Trump and his sycophants to defeat themselves, neither should we be misled into believing that the gerrymandering battle will be more important than massive voter turnout in 2026. We have an election to win. Focus on that task, and let voting rights activists, lawyers, and state legislators fight the gerrymandering battles.

Ignore the noise. Be the signal.

Slouching toward China, a wounded Trump looks to a foe for salvation.

A weakened and wounded Trump will travel to China in an attempt to turn the page on a war that “he alone” started but cannot fix. The man who fancies himself the consummate dealmaker will go to China hat in hand and will be lucky to return with his hat.

The hype of an imminent peace deal that Trump leaked to Axios last week turned out to be another effort to manipulate securities markets and voter sentiment. Neither group was impressed (or misled) by Trump’s stale promises that “peace is at hand.”

Over the weekend, the Iranian government delivered its “response” to Trump’s latest proposal—a proposal so weak that one right-wing commentator described Axios’s reporting on Trump’s offer as “largely fake.” But even the softball demands by Trump drew a quick rejection by the Iranians, punctuated by a well-timed drone attack on commercial ships in the Persian Gulf. See Jerusalem Post, Tanker struck off Qatar as Iran warns of US sanction supporters.

For his part, Trump reacted with his customary bombast to Iran’s counteroffer, posting on Truth Social,

I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called “Representatives.” I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.

Despite the ceasefire, the war remains ongoing. The US has imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz (an act of war), and Iran has mined the strait and is attacking ships from nations allied with the US. The “ceasefire” is a fig leaf that Trump and Republicans are using to conceal their private beliefs about the true nature of Trump’s war. Because it is a war, Congress must exercise oversight. No amount of pretending that a large-scale conflict is not a war should circumvent the Constitution.

The most immediate impact of the Iranian quagmire is the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, traffic in the Strait was 10% of normal. The downstream effects of the cutoff continue to roil the US (and global) economy. The national average in the US is $4.50 per gallon. See NBC News, Track gas prices in your county or state.

In a sign of increasing desperation, the Energy Secretary suggested Sunday that the US was “open” to the suggestion of suspending the federal gas tax (18 cents per gallon). See UPI, Wright: Trump ‘open’ to suspending gas tax during Iran War price surge. Having floated the idea, the pressure to follow through will increase until relief is granted. But once suspended, resuming the tax will be politically difficult.

If Trump believes that the Chinese government will help the US secure an advantageous settlement with Iran, he is sorely mistaken. The few commercial tankers that have been allowed safe passage by Iran were mostly bound for China. Moreover, China vetoed a US resolution before the UN Security Council calling for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, describing the US actions as “unauthorized military operations.”

In short, Trump has no easy way out of his illegal war on Iran—and China is unlikely to give him a helping hand. The US has significantly depleted its missile stockpiles in the war and has three carrier groups in the Middle East. The US Navy has 50% of its deployed carrier fleet in the Middle East (3 carrier groups), and only 1 carrier group in the Indo-Pacific. From China’s perspective, the US war on Iran is a win-win-win.

Trump’s constant bragging about his ballroom has failed to distract the attention of the American public from the debacle of the war in Iran. It is highly unlikely that China will throw him a lifeline.

Strategy for voting in California’s governor’s race

Apologies to all for returning to the topic of voting strategy in California’s gubernatorial race. Rebecca Solnit posted an essay over the weekend that a dozen or so readers of this newsletter sent me, asking if it changed my mind about waiting for a Democratic frontrunner to emerge before voting. Read Rebecca’s essay here: Hey California! What Does It Take to Be Governor?

Here is my short answer is, “I still believe that the strategy of waiting until a week before the election and voting for the Democratic frontrunner is necessary to ensure that a Democrat makes it into the general election.”

In California’s “jungle primary,” the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party. Two months ago, it appeared that the two top Republicans might advance to the primary because the eight Democratic contenders would split the Democratic vote between themselves. Under that scenario, the only sensible course of action was (a) for those candidates with no chance of winning to drop out; and (b) failing that, rallying around the Democratic frontrunner.

A lot has happened in two months. Eric Swalwell, one of the leading Democrats in the race, dropped out. Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer surged, and Katie Porter remained even in her support.

This is how things look in the most recent polling:

Hilton (R) – 16%

Steyer (D) – 15%

Becerra (D) – 13%

Bianco (R) – 10%

Porter (D) – 9%

Obviously, a ranking with Democrats in 2^nd and 3^rd place is a much better position than one with Democrats in 3^rd and 4^th (which is where we were 4 weeks ago).

I still think we should wait for more information. Why? Remember that time—4 weeks ago—when Eric Swalwell was the leading Democratic contender?

The rankings have shifted significantly in three weeks, and might do so again. We will never have perfect information, but we may have more and better information in two weeks.

It may turn out that in two weeks, Steyer and Becerra are both front-runners, statistically tied, but separated by a point or two within the margin of error.

What do you do then? We should vote for whichever of the two Democratic frontrunners we think would be a better governor for California. Since they are both effectively frontrunners with enough support to beat the 4^th place Bianco, voting for either Steyer or Becerra will not prevent a Democrat from advancing to the general election. The point is to vote for a Democratic frontrunner who can at least finish second. Voting for a Democrat in 9th place will only help the top Republican in the race.

But we won’t know whether that is the best strategy until we get more polling data.

And this is where Rebecca Solnit’s essay comes in. She supports Steyer because of his strong environmental record and his support for progressive causes. If that’s all her essay said, I don’t think anyone would have forwarded it to me. But she included a note that said:

There are unreliable polls out there trying to get you to support their candidate, and this vote-for-the-top-Democrat position makes these polls dangerous this time around.

The readers who sent me the article said that Solnit argued that the “wait and vote for the frontrunner” strategy is dangerous. That’s not what she said. Go back and read her words: “This vote for the top Democrat positions makes these polls dangerous.”

Solnit is worried that in a tight race, big-money energy companies will try to defeat Steyer by releasing fake polls. Read her piece. That is the danger she is focusing on. Indeed, if you read the comment section following her essay, Solnit engages with her readers and expands on her position as follows:

Reader: I guess what I’m wondering is do you think it’s wise to wait to vote until we’ve got more clarity on how the candidates are polling (so that we don’t inadvertently get both Republicans as the top two), or should we vote early? I’ll hold my nose and vote for Bacerra if it means there is no way a Republican will end up as governor.

Solnit: (Responding to “I guess what I’m wondering is do you think it’s wise to wait to vote). I think it’s good strategy. But I also remember that if everyone who liked Elizabeth Warren best voted for her, she might have won the primary in 2020, but she bombed because people tried to vote strategically based on what they thought other people would likely do . . . .

[Hubbell note: Recall that Joe Biden won the Democratic primary and the presidency in 2020.]

Solnit wants Steyer to win, and she is worried he will be the subject of misleading polls. That’s a fair concern. The answer to that concern is provided by Solnit in her essay: “There will be trustworthy polls; there will apparently also be propaganda disguised as polls. Be careful about where you get your information (which is the main warning for the 21st century anyway).”

So, yes. We must be intelligent consumers of polls. And, no, Solnit did not say that waiting to see which Democrat is ahead in the polls is a bad strategy.

And, to state the obvious point, if Steyer were in 9^th place, I doubt Solnit would be urging Democrats to vote for him in the circumstances of this jungle primary. Her argument has more persuasive force because Steyer is (as of now) one of the two Democratic frontrunners.

If we get to a week out before the election and Steyer is effectively tied with Becerra for 2^nd and 3^rd place, then vote your conscience. And if voting for Steyer is a good idea today, as Solnit argues, then voting for Steyer in two weeks will still be a good idea.

I will say again that I am mightily unhappy that the Democratic Party has put California Democrats in this position. While state parties should allow primaries to play out, that rule does not amount to a suicide pact. In a jungle primary, the party has a responsibility to ensure that Democrats are not shut out of the general election. The party failed us this time by remaining silent or by failing to clear the field of a half dozen contenders with no chance of winning.

Opportunities for Reader Engagement

Focus for Democracy

The Supreme Court has gutted the remaining protections of the Voting Rights Act—a direct assault on our democracy and the hard-won right to equal representation. But we will not back down. Join Focus for Democracy, Movement Labs, and The States Project on Tuesday, May 12th at 5 PM PT/8 PM ET for a pressing conversation about what’s at stake and how we can organize to protect voting rights and strengthen democracy in this critical moment.

Tuesday, May 12th
5 PM PT/8 PM ET

Register at this link.

Force Multiplier

Force Multiplier invites you to Zoom with three House candidates: Paige Cognetti (PA 08), Rebecca Cooke (WI 03), and Janelle Stelson (PA 10) on May 12, 2026, 7:00-8:00 pm ET. Register and Donate Here. These three candidates are all challenging Republican incumbents in what are expected to be some of the closest House races in the nation. All three are rated Toss-Up and are prime opportunities to flip seats.

Paige Cognetti is the mayor of Scranton, PA , running against a freshman who won narrowly in 24. Rebecca Cooke, who has roots in dairy farming and currently works supporting women entrepreneurs, came very close to unseating her opponent in 2024 and the seat is within reach for 2026. Janelle Stelson, a well-known local anchor and television journalist, lost by a tiny margin against the incumbent in 24.

Concluding Thoughts

It was a busy weekend filled with parties and celebrations for our youngest granddaughter, so I am going to give the concluding thoughts to Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo, who addresses how we can end the gerrymandering wars. See Josh Marshall, Talking Points Memo, No, It’s Really Not a ‘Race to the Bottom’ on Redistricting.

Marshall writes:

It can be done by a vote of Congress and a presidential signature. The corrupt members of the Supreme Court may again abuse their power and claim that such a law is unconstitutional. That only demonstrates the need for reform of the Court.

The aims of the two sides here are not equal. One embraces democratic practice, the other doesn’t. We don’t have to bemoan a “race to the bottom” in which there are no good guys and bad guys.

The right path forward is a national, uniform set of standards putting voters of all stripes first. The only question is whether Republicans and their corrupt allies on the Supreme Court will let that happen.

The way to prevent the Supreme Court from invalidating national redistricting legislation is to expand the Supreme Court to overwhelm the corrupt reactionary majority.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Pro-democracy protest photos

Due to limited time on Sunday evening, I will post a handful of the photos I received on Sunday and will post the remainder throughout the week. Thanks for your understanding.]

Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state.

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We had 40+ protesters join us this morning (5/9/26) in Clearwater, FL for Operation Overpass’ 39th protest since 5/30/25.

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Budapest, Hungary

A few pictures from the inauguration of the new President. The crowd was joyful, patriotic and huge. It took Hungary 16 years to get to this point. We can do it America!

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From the Visibility Brigade in Paramus on May 8th 2026.

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Shokan NY every Saturday at noon

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Beverly Massachusetts

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Ipswich Massachusetts

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Athens, GA 

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Visibility Rochester and Indivisible Outreach at our annual Lilac Fest Parade marching through the Frederick Law Olmsted designed Highland Park.

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Larchmont NY

The sign for our weekly Saturday protest was inspired this week — we are fired up!

Pro-democracy protest photos.

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state. If you want to include a caption, please draft something short and to the point! Thanks! ]

April 25, 2026, Stafford for Humanity protest.

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North Country Resilience volunteers were once again on their regular Main St. corner in Littleton, NH on Friday May 8th.  Thank you for reminding us not to panic, and to keep up our resistance and to grow our ranks.

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We had over a dozen North Country Resilience volunteers in the center of Franconia, NH today, May 9th, holding our “Signs of Fascism” messages. (Photos attached.) Tomorrow, some volunteers will be on the bridges over I-93.  We Persist!

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Here are photos from the University Village protest that happens every Saturday in Seattle, WA! 

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Saturday May 9, 2026 Mill Creek Park, Kansas City, MO. Rescue Democracy Protest 12-2 Saturdays

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May 9 Indivisible Resisters/Commit to Democracy weekly Saturday rally- this one on Walnut Creek, CA

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Dump Trump on 5/9. Park Blvd in Oakland, CA. The honking was fierce!

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Rockland, Maine. May 9 2026

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Middletown, CT. There seemed to be more support than usual from the cars going by. Our group of patriots out on the 4 corners every Saturday.

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Lake Oswego, Oregon

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Indivisible Worcester, MD, and the Democratic Women’s Club of Worcester County are saying NO WAR, NO ICE, NO KINGS, protesting the beach traffic in West Ocean City, Maryland.

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Photos from the Rally for Democracy, May 9, 2026, which marks 64 weeks of peaceful protest.     You can join the rally every Saturday from 1-2 in front of the Mount Kisco Town Hall.  Their YT channel is https://www.youtube.com/@RallyforDemocracy

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Yesterday’s powerful ICE Out rally in St. Albans, Vermont. It was sobering, moving and inspiring. 

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Cloquet Area Indivisible members (60 of us) defended democracy in the small red town of Cromwell on Minnesota fishing opener. We were surprised by lots of horn honking and waves of support. 

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Lyons, CO 5/9/26   Had about 70 demonstrators on a sunny day after 8 inches of snow three days ago

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We the people keep showing up and will NOT quit.

Lots of cars honking in support. Uplifting. Protests are held at the airport rotary 2x/ month.

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The “All Weather” crew was out this morning for our weekly protest in Pittsfield MA.

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Oak Grove, Oregon

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Members of Champlain Valley Indivisible stood with two large banners on an overpass above Interstate 89 in South Burlington, Vermont  on Saturday, May 9th.  The wind off the lake was gusting at 15 mph, so we had to pack up after an hour, but while we were out there the positive responses were more enthusiastic than usual.  

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Brookfield Resist in Brookfield, WI

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Florida represents!!! There is hope on the horizon and we continue to speak out wherever the word needs to be heard and SEEN.

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Alabama Resisters of Indivisible- photo by Laurie Dill. Protesting the gerrymandering vote if the Alabama GOP

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Englewood Fl

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Downtown Los Angeles protest

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May 8 rally in Saint Albans, Vermont, where a list of demands were read in front of the customs and border protection office. They closed the office The day we were there because there was a planned sit in in front of the doors. The action was planned by a statewide organization called ICE Out Vermont Alliance. There was also a consecration of the land in front of the ice detention facility in Saint Albans done by supportive clergy.

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Londonderry NH-Driving Rain Won’t Stop US!

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National Jews Demand ICE OUT action in Brattleboro Vermont

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Washington DC’s FitzDems’ have been stitching quilt squares as part of the “This is What Democracy Looks Like” quilt project.  For our senior community, it is just one way we express outrage at the desecration of our Constitution.  

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Message from Raleigh Bridge Brigade in Raleigh, NC

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Our weekly Engaged Defenders For Democracy demonstration at the ICE Facility in Cary, North Carolina.

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I84 overpass in Bethel, CT East and then West bound messages:

Do not fall victim to the doomsayers who are out in force on Friday after the Virginia Supreme Court invalidated the state’s redistricting initiative. The court’s decision is an abomination. It is maddening. It is anti-democratic. It is bare-knuckle partisan politics by Republican judges who have demonstrated time and again that their fealty is to Trump, not to the Constitution.

We have every right to be outraged, angry, disappointed, and depressed. For about 5 minutes. We have an election to win, and none of those emotions will help us turn out voters in the largest blue wave election of our lifetime.

Before the Virginia decision, Democrats were strong favorites to win a commanding majority in the House. After the Virginia decision, Democrats are still strong favorites to win a commanding majority in the House.

Nothing is guaranteed, and we need to work tirelessly to secure victory in the midterms. Six months is an eternity in politics, and the landscape could change dramatically. We must leave nothing to chance.

At the same time, we must reject the efforts of the Anxiety Industrial Complex that seeks to leverage every setback into an opportunity to (a) raise money by sending “the sky is falling” texts; (b) maximize clicks by publishing ominous headlines; or (c) increase subscriptions by raising anxiety among concerned Democrats.

Do not fall for the hyperbolic, ridiculous headlines and articles predicting doom. Yes, the decision was a blow—but a limited one that must be viewed in context.

And here is the most important point: The seats at issue in the redistricting initiative and the court’s decision remain contestable! We can still flip those seats, but only if we do not collapse into a pool of resignation and anxiety—which is apparently what the major media and the doomsaying cottage industry on social media would like Democrats to do. Refuse to be a victim of the Anxiety Industrial Complex.

So, let’s step back to inject some badly needed perspective into the decision by the Virginia Supreme Court.

A good place to start is with a statement by the pro-democracy coalition that helped to secure the vote of the people to pass the redistricting initiative. See Michelle Moore writing for Blue Virginia, Give Me a Break—”Vote Yes” Won, They Know It, and Now We Will Define What Winning Looks Like.

Michelle Moore writes, in part,

Yes, it just got harder to gain four more Democratic seats in the midterms. But in April, we proved something powerful: a majority of Virginians understand what’s at stake—and were willing to do what was unexpected. That is nothing short of amazing. Our anger is our fuel. Our organizing is our power. Watch out—because we will flip seats. Many seats.

Ignore the national media—remember who owns them. Don’t fall for their gloom-and-doom; it’s designed to sap momentum. They want to frame the Court’s ruling as a body blow. It is not. The people voted—and “Vote Yes” won. No ambiguity. No question. Any headline claiming otherwise is clickbait. Reject their narrative—and the horse they rode in on. [¶]

So, rally. Don’t regret, don’t second-guess, and don’t grieve. We saw an opportunity and we took a risk—and good for us. We proved we learned the lessons of the past: we will not win by playing it safe. We will win by seizing opportunities, zagging when they zig, building momentum, and refusing to back down.

Link arms, lock in, and move with singular determination to flip seats at every level, in every district.

We set out to win 10—let’s take 11.

Michelle Moore has identified the central insight that can help us maintain perspective: We have agency; we can affect the outcome. Changing congressional districts is one thing; winning in those districts is something entirely different. Democrats have the momentum, Republicans have a failing, flailing, ballrooming Trump.

The flawed premise of the Anxiety Industrial Complex is that every gerrymandered seat will flip in lockstep with the intentions of those redrawing the maps. That is simply not true. Just ask Texas and Florida, where Republicans are now worried that their redrawn maps are “dummymanders” that will hand Democrats a net gain in those states.

Would it have been easier for Democrats to flip seats if the Virginia Supreme Court had not overruled the will of the people? Yes. But does that mean that Virginia Democrats cannot flip the same number of seats? No!

For example, Ron Filipkowski of Meidas Touch News wrote on Friday, “I would note that even returning to the original maps is likely going to lead to Democrats picking up two new seats in VA based on current polling and projections, but it will not be the 4 seats they hoped to get with the referendum.”

At this point, given the passion and righteous anger of Virginia Democrats, I think Filipkowski is underselling the potential for Democrats to flip seats in the midterms.

Texas, Florida, and other red states are gerrymandering with maps and data based on the 2024 presidential election results. Trump’s historic unpopularity has made many of those maps meaningless, or even misleading for Republicans who believe that the 2026 election will look like 2024.

In the latest “generic ballot” for Congress, Democrats lead by 10 points. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats led by about 8 points and flipped 40 seats. While we cannot assume the 2018 result will be replicated in 2026, we can reasonably infer that a 10-point generic ballot margin points to a wave election for Democrats in 2026.

Nor should we allow the media to get away with treating every state that is working on gerrymandering as if they all pose the same likelihood of succeeding in adopting gerrymandered maps. They do not.

For example,

• Alabama’s “planned gerrymander won’t immediately go into effect. Alabama is currently bound by a legal agreement to use its court-ordered congressional map until 2030, and it can only implement the redistricting legislation if federal courts lift the injunction.” Democracy Docket.

• Florida’s four-seat gerrymander violates an express prohibition in the state constitution prohibiting gerrymandering.

• Indiana’s GOP legislators have rejected gerrymandering, and the six new GOP legislators who ran on gerrymandering platforms in the primary will not take office until after the midterms.

Here’s my point: When you see an article that lists a bunch of red states engaged in gerrymandering that fails to differentiate the timing and likelihood of success of gerrymandering in those states, the publication is just trying to frighten you.

Finally, we must (again) take a lesson from this latest setback: We must be as bold and imaginative in fighting to preserve democracy as Republicans have been depraved and ruthless in seeking to destroy it. No more half-measures; no more “go slowly to avoid offending the tender sensibilities of the MAGA base;” no more pearl-clutching worries about the “legitimacy” of institutions that have reduced themselves to political action committees of the white Christian nationalist movement, a.k.a., MAGA.

A reader sent a link to a proposal to reduce the mandatory retirement age for the Virginia Supreme Court from 70 to 54. That proposal could be enacted by June 30, 2026, and take effect immediately. Every Republican member of the current Virginia Supreme Court would be immediately retired and replaced by appointment (by Democratic Governor Abigail Spanberger). See Quinn Yeargain on The Downballot, How Virginia Democrats can overturn the redistricting ruling: Retire the [Virginia] Supreme Court.

Would that proposal reverse today’s decision in time to make a difference in the midterms? Probably not. Is it a good idea? I don’t know, but it is an idea worth considering, just as other out-of-the-box ideas are worth considering in order to preserve democracy and the rule of law.

Concluding Thoughts

As we enter the weekend, the electoral landscape for the 2026 midterms might have changed by one or two seats in a wave election that will likely see dozens of seats change hands. Do not let the professional prophets of doom tell you otherwise. Believe in our ability to persuade voters that handing control of Congress to Democrats is essential for their economic well-being, health, job security, and America’s national security.

There is so much more to talk about, especially the grotesque, overflowing corruption of the Trump administration. But I am in DC for a grandchild’s first birthday and baptism, so I must sign off now. I will not host a Saturday livestream on May 9, but I did post a short video that I recorded at LAX just after the Virginia decision was announced. See Live with Robert B. Hubbell.

Stay strong, everyone! Do not be distracted. We can win, so long as we do not surrender or quit. Together, there is nothing we cannot do.

Pro-democracy protest photos

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Please include city and state. If you would like to include a caption, please keep it short and to the point! Thanks! ]

Sebastopol, CA

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Petaluma, CA

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Petaluma, CA. May 7 was our first anniversary  protesting on the overpass over the 101 Freeway - 30-40 people gather every Thursday in Petaluma, CA.

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Face Down Fascism in Berkeley, May 8, 2026

It was a tough week, so we needed to get out there more than ever.

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Every Friday, 3-4 in South Deerfield, Massachusetts.  Lots of Support this week

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Wilder, VT Chandler Rd. Banner drop today -

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Putney, Vermont

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Gorman Road (Howard Co., Maryland) - earlier today over I-95

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Berkeley Springs, WV

These signs were inspired by your reflections on the John Crow era. As I expected, the “Black Votes Matter” sign received some real hate from passersby. One man said: “in case you don’t know, you’re white.” But there were lots of very positive responses too, the majority from people in my age group.

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Hartford Visibility Brigade 5/8/26 .

Perfect clucking day! 

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This was a Protest Sat May 1 at the 5 corners in Essex Junction, Vermont. Maybe 50 protesters in all.

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Due to a family celebration, I will not host my regular Saturday livestream on May 9. At a reader’s suggestion, I have created a calendar (posted at the end of the newsletter) that identifies dates when travel or engagements will result in shorter newsletters, no audio track, or no livestream. I hope the calendar will help readers know what to expect about the newsletter’s publication schedule. As always, I will publish six days a week, with a Sunday edition that serves only to open the Comment section.

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John Roberts believes the American people are stupid.

John Roberts apparently believes the American public is stupid. In remarks to a federal judicial conference delivered on Wednesday, Roberts said that the American public wrongly believes that the justices are “political actors.” NBC News, Chief Justice John Roberts says American public wrongly views the justices as ‘political actors’.

Roberts said,

I think at a very basic level, people think we’re making policy decisions, [that] we’re saying we think this is what things should be as opposed to this is what the law provides. I think they view us as purely political actors, which I don’t think is an accurate understanding of what we do.

No, Justice Roberts, we are not stupid, as you apparently believe. We understand the truth: That your court has shed the pretense of being a judicial body deciding cases by applying the Constitution, precedent, and statutes. Instead, the reactionary majority has debased itself, becoming a political arm of the white Christian nationalist movement that has adopted the MAGA mantle. See op-ed by Duncan Levin on NBC, Here’s what’s wrong with Chief Justice Roberts saying the Supreme Court isn’t political.

Per Levin,

The problem is not that Americans misunderstand what the court is doing, but rather that Americans can plainly see what the court is doing. [¶]

Across abortion, guns, race, voting, labor, regulation, money, religion and presidential power, the result has been the same: less power for elected lawmakers and federal agencies; more power for judges, wealthy interests, religious claimants, gun rights advocates and presidents.

At some point, Chief Justice Roberts, the public is not misunderstanding the court. The public is recognizing the pattern.

Putting aside the insulting nature of Roberts’ comments, the fact that Roberts was forced to offer such a pathetically transparent defense of the Court’s hyper-partisan agenda demonstrates that the criticism of the Court is finding its mark. We must keep up the pressure so that the Court hears the footsteps of reform over its shoulder every time they issue another abomination.

See Josh Marshall in Talking Points Memorandum, Are Democrats Warming to Reforming the Supreme Court? Marshall commented on Roberts’ speech in part:

As for Roberts, in advance of actual reform, the next best thing is making the threat or reality of accountability hit home for the authors of the corruption. So, it should hearten you every time the Chief Justice has a whine-fest like this. He hears you.

Keep up the good work, and spread the word: Enlarge the Court to overwhelm the reactionary majority.

US and Iran exchange fire, but the ceasefire is still in effect, says Trump

Trump continues to insist that peace is at hand in his illegal war on Iran, but the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. See The Guardian, US-Iran ceasefire under threat after exchange of strikes in strait of Hormuz.

Trump is desperate to end the war that he started for no apparent reason, so he cannot admit that the ceasefire has ended. In reality, it never took effect. The blockade—an act of war—was imposed on the first day of the ceasefire.

The NYTimes reported the real reason that Trump suspended Operation Freedom (the plan to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz) after less than 12 hours. It turns out that Saudi Arabia refused to allow the US to transit its airspace to enforce Operation Freedom. See NYTimes, Trump Reversed Hormuz Plan After Saudis Denied Airspace Access.

Per the Times,

Prince Mohammed’s action stunned U.S. officials and forced Mr. Trump to abandon his plan, according to a U.S. military official familiar with the sequence of events. The Saudis have since lifted the restrictions on the bases and overflights, but still have not agreed to permit the use of its territory in support of “Project Freedom,” as Mr. Trump named the naval operation, the U.S. official added.

The Times added detail that showed Trump lied about the reason for suspending Operation Freedom:

Mr. Trump said he was reacting to new “progress” toward a peace agreement with Tehran, although no evidence of a dramatic breakthrough has emerged.

The quick abandonment of Operation Freedom and Trump’s lie about the circumstances demonstrate that we can trust nothing Trump says about his illegal war against Iran. Nothing. See Slate,

It is a sad thing when high-level American and Iranian officials make contradictory claims and the Iranians turn out to be right. This has happened a few times since the war began almost six weeks ago. In the latest instance, U.S. officials said the two sides were very close to agreement on a peace deal; the Iranians denied that assessment, and indeed, at least so far, no deal has been struck.

Meanwhile, it appears that Iran can simply hunker down and outlast Trump. See WaPo, U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s blockade for months.

Per WaPo,

A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.

While it is possible that Trump is close to achieving a peace deal, all the happy talk is coming from Axios, which has become Trump’s unofficial press office. The Iranians, meanwhile, opened fire on US ships on Thursday as they attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. As between Axios’s reporting on leaks from “senior administration officials” and Iran firing on the US Navy, one source seems to be a more reliable indicator of the state of the war.

US Court of International Trade invalidates Trump’s second attempt at imposing tariffs

After the Supreme Court invalidated Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, Trump imposed 10% temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. On Thursday, the US Court of International Trade issued an opinion holding that the temporary tariffs were “invalid” and “unauthorized by law.” See AP, Federal court rules against new global tariffs Trump imposed.

Per CNN,

Thursday’s ruling calls for the administration to cease collecting these tariffs from the plaintiffs and refund prior payments. While only applicable to the impacted plaintiffs, it’s a major setback for the Trump administration and its tariff-enacting capacities.

The Damage being inflicted by Robert Kennedy

Three stories over the last several days highlight the damage being inflicted by Robert Kennedy’s anti-vaccination, anti-science agenda.

First, an outbreak of the deadly hantavirus on a cruise ship comes after the CDC has fired most of the scientists responsible for tracking diseases on cruise ships. See Futurism, The CDC Fired All Its Cruise Ship Inspectors Before the Hantavirus Outbreak.

Per Futurism,

[The cruise ship outbreak of hantavirus] also brought attention to an eyebrow-raising decision by the Trump administration made almost exactly a year ago. Targeted by sweeping cuts like other agencies as part of Elon Musk’s crusade to gut federal spending, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cleared out almost its entire Vessel Sanitation Program, a key group that ensures ships are properly sanitized to prevent them from becoming the type of plague frigate the world is now dealing with.

According to CBS News reporting back in April 2025, all full-time employees working on the VSP were fired, including the epidemiologist that led the CDC’s outbreak response on cruise ships.

Second, multiple outlets have reported that the Department of Health and Human Services is suppressing reports on the effectiveness of Covid and shingles vaccines. See ABC News, FDA withdraws publication of COVID, shingles vaccine research findings.

The ABC article quotes Dr. Fiona Havers, who led the CDC’s tracking of hospitalizations from COVID-19 and RSV, as follows: “HHS leaders now have a clear pattern of blocking high-quality studies that include results that don’t support their overall anti-vaccine narrative.”

Another story illustrates the deadly harm that Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism is inflicting on children. A Pro Publica report discusses the increasing refusal by parents to authorize Vitamin K shots for newborns. See Pro Publica, Babies Are Bleeding to Death as Parents Reject a Vitamin Shot Given at Birth.

Per Pro Publica,

A national study of more than 5 million births, published in December, found that the rate of U.S. babies not receiving vitamin K at birth topped 5% in 2024 — up 77% from 2017.

Babies who don’t get the vitamin K shot, research shows, are 81 times more likely than those who do to develop late vitamin K deficiency bleeding, where in many cases oxygen can’t reach their brains and blood pools around their skulls. Perhaps most alarming is that, according to the CDC, 1 in every 5 babies with vitamin K deficiency bleeding will die.

The increasing parental refusal to allow doctors to provide Vitamin K injections is part of Kennedy’s misguided “wellness culture” that wrongly asserts any medical intervention is harmful.

When Kennedy is no longer in charge of our nation’s healthcare system, he will be remembered as the single greatest enemy of public health in a century, at least. All because Trump is an ignorant man who believed that “owning the libs” was more important than the lives of infants and children.

Opportunity for Reader Engagement

Latino Talks 2026 in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, May 14.

I’ll be moderating a panel in Washington, D.C. with Rep. Robert Garcia, the ranking Democratic member of the House Oversight Committee, and Rep. Joaquin Castro, a leading champion in the fight to expose DHS cruelty, hold ICE accountable, and secure the release of detained immigrant children and families, at Latino Talks 2026 in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, May 14.

Hosted by Latino Victory, Latino Talks is an evening of cocktails and conversation that brings together leaders across politics, culture, business, and media to reflect on where the Latino community stands and where it is headed next.

The evening will feature a strong and growing lineup of elected officials and public voices, including Rep. Emily Randall, Rep. Gabe Vasquez, Rep. Adelita Grijalva, Rep. Nydia Velázquez, Rep. Adriano Espaillat, Rep. Rob Menendez, Rep. Lou Correa, Rep. Analilia Mejía, Rep. Gil Cisneros, Ambassador Nathalie Rayes, Maria Cardona, and more to be announced.

For those who would like to attend in person in D.C., tickets are available here.

New Virtual Option: Anyone who donates $25 or more will receive the recording of the full program on Monday, May 18.

Concluding Thoughts

It has been a rough week. I received a note from a reader that said, in part,

I’ve been feeling pretty depressed lately wondering if all the protesting I’ve done, all the phone calls and emails I have sent to Congress has done any good at all. No one has been held accountable for any crimes, I feel so hopeless.

But then I read this wonderful piece by Michele Hornish, Small Deeds Done (Substack), Polite people get poisoned. It renewed my belief that one small thing can make a huge difference.

Michele Hornish’s piece is inspiring; it recounts the efforts of a single concerned mom who fought for her children and, later, for her community to be free from industrial poisons. Her efforts eventually became the Center for Health, Environment and Justice. One person can make a difference.

In addition to thanking the reader, I added a thought that keeps me going when it appears that our efforts may be in vain. Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat on a segregated bus in 1955. Her solitary act of principle and courage sparked the Montgomery Bus Boycott, a defining moment of the Civil Rights Movement.

But for a century before Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat, Black Americans had been refusing to give up seats on trains, buses, streetcars, and in restaurants. Unlike Rosa Parks, they have largely been forgotten in history. Many were convicted and jailed for violating Jim Crow laws. See Because of Them We Can: Meet The Black Women Who Refused to Give Up Their Seats Before Rosa Parks.

Many of them did not live to see the fruits of their labor. Were their efforts in vain? No. To the contrary, their efforts prepared the field for Rosa Parks to succeed.

We will never know which act of resistance will be the tipping point, will inspire the next generation of democracy defenders, or will lift someone’s heart on a dark day and give them strength to continue.

It is emotionally gratifying to see the results of our struggle in real time. But that is the exception, not the rule. So long as we do not surrender, we will win. It is just a matter of time. And your efforts will be part of the unbroken chain that stretches back to the first protester who raised their voice against injustice.

Do not lose hope; do not despair. Your efforts matter, even if we do not see immediate changes.

Stay strong and keep the faith—like the generations who preceded us. We owe them nothing less.

Publication Calendar

Pro-democracy protest photos

Van Nuys, CA (Los Angeles) on 5-4-26:

Woodland Hills Indivisible and East Valley Indivisibles organized the rally and march at the James Corman Federal Building in Van Nuys (out of which ICE operates) as part of the statewide No Camps CA actions that day. A well organized Filipino college student coalition also joined us. We’ll all work together again!

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The car holding all the signs Team La Cumbre Bridge Brigade uses at our weekly 101 freeway overpass protests. As you can see, it is loaded!

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Hopewell, NJ’s weekly protest drew 38 members of the community this Thursday. ( 5:30-6:30.) This week, police arrived to lecture demonstraters about “alleged” jaywalking. Apparently, some MAGA driver complained about someone crossing the road while said driver was trying to make a right turn, extreme right.

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Santa Rosa Visibility Brigade.

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Silver Spring, MD

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Rise and Resist weekly vigil at the immigration court New York, NY

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I-90 Berkshire Visibility Brigade

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Hartford, CT 5/7/26 

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Happy Hour Visibility Bridge Brigade over Route 95/128 in Lexington on May 7. Traffic was slow and we calculated that each of our signs was seen by  >7000 vehicles.

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Boston Bridge Brigade Standout May 7th

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From SoBoCo Indivisible VB (Southern Boulder County), Louisville CO

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Thursday (5/7) during morning rush hour over I-94 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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Sacramento, CA

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May 7, 2026 Pasadena, Ca over the 210.

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West L.A. freeway brigade - May 7, 2026.  Join us on Thursday mornings 7:30 to 9:00 AM, Palms Blvd. overpass on 405.

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Wednesday Rally in Middletown, NJ

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Democracy Bridge in Portland, Oregon.

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I took this picture of this sticker found on a post in City Park, NOLA.

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Protest photo--White Plains, NY, May 5, 2026. We’re out there every week.

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ReSisters didn’t let a little rain stop us! We were on “our” bridge in Norwalk, Connecticut yesterday, sharing a message that resonates with at least 70% of Americans.

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American Tobacco Trail over I-40 Durham, NC. Our John Roberts message brought more honks (and middle fingers) than we’ve ever had.

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With the express permission of the Supreme Court, former slaveholding states are employing racial gerrymandering in their efforts to eliminate Black representation in the US Congress. In Tennessee, for example, a Memphis-centered congressional district that has existed for more than a century was eliminated by the state legislature in 48 hours. Black voters comprise 61% of the Memphis congressional district as currently configured. Under the plan adopted this week, Memphis will be divided into three districts, relegating Black voters to minority status in three redrawn districts.

See NYTimes, Republicans Unveil Map Carving Up Tennessee’s Majority-Black House District (Gift subscription, accessible to all.) (“Tennessee Republicans on Wednesday proposed a congressional map aimed at diluting the state’s lone majority-Black district, a swift response to last week’s Supreme Court ruling that weakened a landmark voting rights law.”)

Other former slaveholding states are following Tennessee’s example: Alabama, South Carolina, and Louisiana. More Southern states may follow.

The precise targeting of congressional districts represented by Black members of Congress or containing a majority Black electorate is no coincidence. It is naked racism, the ongoing retribution of the Old South against the descendants of formerly enslaved people emancipated over the violent objections of slaveholding states.

Republicans have dropped all pretense. Against claims that Tennessee is engaged in racial gerrymandering, the aptly named Senator Marsha Blackburn said, “This is what it means to be America’s conservative leader. Let’s get it done.” (Blackburn is now the leading contender to become Tennessee’s governor.)

The naked racism motivating gerrymandering by former slaveholding states is manifest. It is reprehensible and inflicts a moral injury on Black Americans. We must fight with every ounce of resistance we can muster to stop and reverse the depravity of racial gerrymandering.

Calling racism by name—and labeling its proponents for what they are—is necessary. Not merely to shame them and to signal to our fellow citizens that we will not tolerate the malign practice, but to remind ourselves that unstinting resolve in the effort to abolish the effects of racism is no vice. It is a virtue. It is what our Constitution commands, and it is what our fellow citizens deserve from those who are not targets of racism.

When we achieve our trifecta, half-measures and institutional gentility will delay the day when Black Americans can secure the full promise of the Constitution. We must not abet racists by urging caution in the face of white extremism and racial animus. In January 2029, we must pass the National Redistricting Reform Act, the Freedom to Vote Act, and enlarge the Supreme Court to 21 justices (see note below), with all vacancies to be filled within 60 days of Inauguration Day. Anything less will be a breach of faith with Black Americans.

The GOP’s naked racism demands moral clarity in our response. Racism is wrong. It has no place in American politics. The Constitution requires that it be outlawed—and the Court that has become its chief proponent must be dismantled and rebuilt.

Note re size of Supreme Court:

The size of the enlarged Court should not be determined only by the number of new justices necessary to “outvote” the current reactionary majority. The nation has grown significantly since 1789, when the first Supreme Court was established with six justices for a population of 4 million citizens. The chart below shows how large the Court should be to maintain its proportionate size to the 1789 metrics.

Trump once again claims peace deal is near with Iran

As has been the case for nearly a month, Trump is claiming that the US and Iran are 48-hours away from achieving a peace deal. The announcement came through Axios, which has effectively assumed the duties of press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who is on maternity leave. See Axios, US, Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say.

The Axios article explains the deal, but it is little more than an agreement to cease fighting while negotiations continue. Per Axios,

In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran’s nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions.

Important details are missing, but it appears that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz gradually over a thirty-day period. Whether Iran will continue to assert control over the strait is not clear. See Al Jazeera, Has the US accepted Iran’s demand to settle Hormuz first, nuclear later?

Less clear is the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.

If the one-page 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is agreed to, it will effectively put the US and Iran back at the negotiating table, which is where they were on February 27, 2026, before Trump began his illegal war on Iran. The MOU does not begin to approach the agreement secured by President Obama in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015, which was shredded by Trump in 2018.

In other words, after 67 days of war, $25 billion dollars, and significant damage to the US economy, Trump will end up where he was 67 days ago, except that Iran will be in a stronger negotiating position because it withstood an onslaught by the US military and ended up with control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Coda: Despite all the happy talk from Trump, the US fired on an Iranian tanker on Wednesday evening as the tanker attempted to breach the US blockade. See HuffPost, U.S. Fires On Iranian Oil Tanker As Trump Pressures Tehran For Deal To End War.

The FBI is out of control

The FBI is spinning out of control. Sarah Fitzpatrick of The Atlantic published a sequel to her first story on Director Kash Patel’s alleged drinking to excess. After the first article, Patel sued The Atlantic in an error-riddled complaint demanding $250 million in damages for defamation.

According to Fitzpatrick, the lawsuit prompted additional sources to contact her, which apparently provided enough material for a follow-on article, which is here: The Atlantic, Kash Patel’s Personalized Bourbon Stash. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

Patel has been handing out bottles of bourbon customized with his name and FBI title. The Atlantic obtained “a personalized bottle of Woodford Reserve bourbon engraved with the words “Kash Patel FBI Director,” as well as a rendering of an FBI shield.” See photo on first page of article.

The gifts of alcohol with the FBI logo are of dubious propriety. An FBI spokesperson defended the gifts, claiming that they were consistent with longstanding FBI tradition. But when Sara Fitzpatrick asked for specific examples of prior gifts of alcohol, the FBI did not provide further comment.

Notably, the Washington Post reported that the FBI had begun an investigation into Sarah Fitzpatrick over her reporting about Kash Patel’s drinking. See PBS News, FBI reportedly investigates journalist who wrote about Kash Patel’s heavy drinking.

The actions by the FBI are outrageous—and likely criminal. The FBI agents (and any assistant US attorneys who are also involved) should be seeking legal advice as they engage in investigations that are plainly driven by retribution rather than a genuine law enforcement purpose.

Josh Marshall suggested today in Talking Points Memo that efforts were underway to create a “DOJ in exile,” to “create a baseline record, a predicate and an expectation of future accountability for the Trump administration’s criminal conduct.” While Marshall had few details, he is suggesting that he will make an announcement sometime in the near future.

FBI agents may be in a tough spot, but their first loyalty is to the Constitution. If they are being asked to engage in conduct that might be criminal, or part of a criminal conspiracy to obstruct justice, they should seek legal counsel and act accordingly.

One story that garnered significant attention on Wednesday was the search of the office of a Democratic Virginia lawmaker who led the efforts on Virginia’s redistricting initiative. See HuffPo, FBI Searches Home Of Virginia Democrat Behind Redistricting Efforts.

On its face, the raid and search seem as though they are motivated by political revenge. They may be, but the following note in the HuffPo article was a surprise to me:

One [source] said the investigation into Democratic Sen. L. Louise Lucas was opened during President Joe Biden’s administration.

If the investigation was opened under Biden, it might still be retaliatory in nature under Trump. But the investigation’s inception was likely legitimate. Stay tuned for more.

Opportunity for Reader Engagement

Livestream with Charles Booker, candidate for US Senate for Kentucky

I will host a livestream “meet and greet” with Charles Booker, who is running for the Democratic nomination for US Senate for Kentucky. The livestream will take place this Thursday, May 7, at 5:00 p.m. Pacific / 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

The livestream is open to all! Just tune in at the appointed time by navigating to Today’s Edition homepage (https://roberthubbell.substack.com) or by opening the Substack App. You will receive a notification when we go live!

Meet Charles Booker, here: Home - Charles Booker For U.S. Senate 2026. The Democratic Primary in Kentucky is May 19^th!

Reader Meeting in D.C. on Tuesday, May 12^th from 2pm to 4pm.

Jill and I will be in Washington D.C. on May 12 and invite readers to meet with us from 2:00 to 4:00 p.m. at the Omni Shoreham Hotel (in the Woodley Park neighborhood of D.C., near Rock Creek Park.)

The meeting is free (though you may need to take public transportation or pay for hotel parking).

We have rented an event space and have room for about 50 readers. Please sign up on this sheet: Reader Meeting in DC Sign Up Form.

Please note: Every guest must sign up individually so that we have an accurate count. Thanks! Jill and I look forward to meeting you in D.C.!

Concluding Thoughts

Many media outlets are focusing on Trump’s victories in the Indiana primaries as evidence of his continuing dominance over the Republican Party. While it may be true that Trump still has a strong grip on the GOP, elections are not won in primaries. The Wall Street Editorial Board published a skeptical editorial on Wednesday. See WSJ, Trump’s Hollow Indiana Victory (Gift article, accessible to all.)

The Editorial Board wrote:

The media scorekeepers have declared that President Trump remains the king of the Republican Party, after he helped to oust at least five GOP Indiana Senators . . . The more important question is whether his kingdom will shrink after November. . . . a gain of two seats might get swamped by a blue wave.

Mr. Trump’s approval rating is grim. But hey, he can still rule in Indiana primaries.

As the WSJ notes, primary victories don’t count for much when “Mr. Trump’s approval rating is grim.” The latest poll (May 6) by NPR/PBS/Marist showed again that Trump’s favorability rating is the lowest point ever. More importantly, Trump’s unpopularity is translating into an advantage for Democrats in congressional elections.

Per NPR,

Democrats lead by 10 points on the congressional ballot test. The ballot test asks which party’s candidate they would vote for if congressional elections took place today.

The closest comparison is 2018, when Democrats were up by about 8 points on average before the midterm. Democrats swung 40 seats in 2018. We don’t need to get anywhere near that number to flip the House, but larger margins will allow Democrats to be bolder in their legislative agenda (and in exercising oversight).

There are 180 days remaining before the midterm. In politics, 180 days is approximately equal to infinity, so we cannot let up. We can take nothing for granted, and winning the House alone may not allow us to stop Trump. We must stretch to win the Senate, as well. If we can do that, we can begin the hard work of passing voting legislation and preparing for Supreme Court reform.

We have every reason to be hopeful, but no reason to be complacent!

Pro-democracy protest photos

(Send to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include caption with city and state.)

AlbaNY Visibility Brigade

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San Jose, CA.  Weather was perfect for Indivisible San Jose’s Wednesday Visibility Bridge protest.

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From our one year anniversary in Northeast Baltimore

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A combined effort in Charlottesville, VA by the Proffit Road Crew, the Visibility Brigade and Vital Signs !

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This is my new friend, Mary, who I met at our weekly rallies in (very red) Stuart FL. She is grateful to me and the other weekly protesters for welcoming her: teary eyed, she says she has “found her people!” Each Wednesday morning since March 2025 a group of Indivisible activists have shown up in front of Congressman Brian Mast’s office to voice our disapproval of his MAGA stance, aiming to oust him in November. 

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Our weekly Signs of Fascism demonstration in Woodstock, Va.

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Oakland,  California. Grand Lake Theater 

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Raleigh Bridge Brigade in Raleigh, NC

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Photos from Grand Lake neighborhood, Oakland

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May 1 protest in Columbus, NC, the county seat of a very red Polk county North Carolina!

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Highlanders Visibility Brigade Newton, MA 

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As I note below, there was a glitch with the publication of yesterday’s newsletter. I failed to change the default publication setting of “Paid Subscribers Only” to “All Readers.” I fixed the mistake early in the morning, so the newsletter was available to everyone, but I address the mistake in a little more detail below. Rest assured, the newsletter is free, and subscriptions are optional. It will always be so.

The fog (of war) in Trump’s mind.

Trump has a notoriously short attention span and is unable to think in a linear fashion. In short order on Tuesday, the following happened:

• Tuesday morning, Secretary of Defense Hegseth said that the US had commenced “Project Freedom,” designed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by providing US naval “guides” to commercial ships transiting the Strait, which Hegseth claimed was a “red, white, and blue dome” over ships transiting the Strait. Hegseth also said that Iran’s repeated strikes on ships in the Strait of Hormuz did not violate the ceasefire.

• Tuesday mid-day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces that the war against Iran (Operation Epic Fury) is over and has been replaced by Project Freedom.

• Tuesday afternoon, Trump announces that Project Freedom has been “paused” because of progress in peace talks with Iran, although the US blockade remains in effect.

• Tuesday evening, Iran claims that its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect.

Got that? Over the course of 24 hours, Trump announces and then cancels Project Freedom, a major undertaking to guide commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, both the US and Iran claim that their respective blockades remain in effect.

If you are confused by the above, good! That proves you are paying attention, which Trump apparently is not. See NYTimes, Contradicting Himself and Secretary of State, Trump Again Changes Iran Strategy | The president made the announcement in a social media post just hours after Secretary of State Marco Rubio had affirmed the newly created mission, which bore little connection to the original justification for war. (Gift article, accessible to all.)

The NYTimes captured some of the confusion in this description of the changing positions of the administration on Tuesday:

[I]t turns out, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the war actually ended at some point after the cease-fire took hold, or so he told reporters at a news conference at the White House on Tuesday. “The Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” he said. “We achieved the objective of that operation.” The effort to reopen the strait, Mr. Rubio said, is entirely a defensive and humanitarian operation that would result in direct military exchanges with the Iranians only if U.S. ships came under fire.

So, the war with Iran ended, but that fact was only mentioned as an aside in remarks by Secretary of State Rubio in a discussion of a new “defensive” campaign, which was in effect for about eight hours before being canceled by Trump on Truth Social.

I could go on, but you get the point. The administration cannot keep its story straight about whether we are at war, in a defensive operation, in a ceasefire, about to wipe Iran off the face of the Earth, all of the above, none of the above, or some of the above. See, e.g., NYTimes sub-headline, above, “The White House insists the Iran war is over, even while missiles fly.”

Thus, confusion reigns as Trump insists that the US is close to reaching a deal with Iran. We’ll see. We have been close to a deal with Iran (according to Trump) for weeks.

Senate Republicans include budget request of $1 billion for Trump’s ballroom.

When Trump surprised the nation by demolishing the East Wing, he claimed that he would build a ballroom with private donations of $200 million. Then the cost rose to $400 million, still funded by private donations. After the violence at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, Republicans in the Senate said that the ballroom should be paid for by the federal government. Which brings us to today, when Senate Republicans submitted a budget request that contained a proposed $1 billion expenditure for the ballroom. See CNN, Senate GOP eyes $1B for Trump ballroom security in immigration package, and The New Republic, Republicans Demand Mind-Blowing $1 Billion for Trump’s Ballroom.

In fairness, the $1 billion figure includes costs for security and communications equipment for the reconstruction of the ballroom and the East Wing. But the ballroom project has moved from “It will be paid for with private funds” to “It will cost the American taxpayer $1 billion.” That “bait and switch” tactic is occurring as gas prices are spiking past $7 per gallon in California, and above $4 across much of the nation.

Republicans have inserted the $1 billion request into a reconciliation package that would allow Republicans to pass the request in the Senate without a filibuster. That means that every Republican in the House and Senate will be on record as supporting the $1 Billion Ballroom” heading into midterms with an electorate angry over the high cost of gasoline. See Vox, What Trump’s ballroom could cost you | Trump claimed the ballroom would be “free of charge.” It could cost taxpayers $1 billion.

The negative campaign ads write themselves. I hope Democratic strategists are sharpening their pens as we speak . . . .

A comment on the election results on Tuesday evening

Several states held primaries on Tuesday. One set of results that is getting a lot of attention is Trump’s support for GOP challenges to GOP incumbents in Indiana’s state legislature. Trump targeted six GOP incumbents who refused to support Trump’s mid-census gerrymander. It appears that five of six Trump-supported insurgent candidates have defeated GOP incumbents. See IndyStar, Indiana Primary Election 2026 Results Shock: Trump-Backed Candidates Surge, GOP Shake-Up Spreads Across Indiana Primary And Midwest Elections.

Should we be worried by this outcome? While it’s too early to tell, my reaction is that Trump has created opportunities for Democrats to challenge each of the six GOP seats that were the subject of the intra-party turmoil. The successful insurgents are likely to be more radical, less electable in general election contests. We have seen Trump make this mistake repeatedly. Remember Herschel Walker (who lost to Sen. Raphael Warnock), or Blake Masters (Peter Thiel protégé who turned out to be the candidate who had “scored the worst focus group results” ever seen), and or the always detestable Kari Lake, who lost twice as a Trump-endorsed candidate in Arizona?

Elsewhere, Democrats held onto a seat in the Michigan state senate in a special election, ensuring Democratic control in that chamber for the rest of the year. See The Detroit News, Chedrick Greene defeats Jason Tunney in Michigan Senate special election:

Democrat Chedrick Greene won Tuesday’s pivotal special election in Michigan’s 35th Senate District, providing his party a direct sign of momentum in a battleground state ahead of the November midterm. [¶]

Democrats will hold a 20-18 majority in the state Senate for the remainder of the year.

Reader Meeting in D.C. on Tuesday, May 12^th from 2pm to 4pm.

Jill and I will be in Washington D.C. on May 12 and invite readers to meet with us from 2:00 to 4:00 p.m. at the Omni Shoreham Hotel (in the Woodley Park neighborhood of D.C., near Rock Creek Park.)

The meeting is free (though you may need to take public transportation or pay for hotel parking).

We have rented an event space and have room for about 50 readers. Please sign up on this sheet: Reader Meeting in DC Sign Up Form.

Please note: Every guest must sign up individually so that we have an accurate count. Thanks! Jill and I look forward to meeting you in D.C.!

A note on yesterday’s glitch in sending the newsletter.

As noted above, I accidentally sent yesterday’s newsletter to “Paid Subscribers Only,” which is the Substack default setting (and Substack’s way of always trying to maximize revenue for Substack and the author). Jill and I were on the road, and I wrote the newsletter while in a hotel room in Visalia, CA. Jill was trying to sleep, so in my efforts to quickly and quietly publish the newsletter, I lost focus and failed to toggle the button from “Paid Subscribers Only” to “All Readers.”

As a consequence, only paid subscribers received the first published edition of the newsletter. I received dozens of inquiries from non-paying subscribers. Many were worried that something had happened to me. (Thank you for your concern!) Others looked at the App or the newsletter website and encountered a paywall, and were confused or angry, believing I had suddenly turned the newsletter into a “subscribers only” format.

Rest assured that the newsletter will always be free, and paid subscriptions will be optional. And I hope you trust me enough to know that I would never make any major changes to the newsletter without discussing them first with readers.

Many of the responses were touching and inspiring. One reader wrote,

I usually start my mornings with you and my coffee. This morning I couldn’t because I am not a paid subscriber. I am living on Social Security and the generosity of family and friends. It leaves little room for non-necessities. Today I am up at 5 am, as I [prepare to go to my twice weekly protest actions.]

I am not sure what to do now. Your voice was the start of my day. I hope this is not a permanent thing, and I will be able to listen later today.

Responses like the one above are the reason I publish every day, even when Jill and I are on the road, celebrating a grandchild’s birthday or our wedding anniversary. I take seriously the role that the newsletter has come to play in people’s lives. It is both an honor and a privilege to walk by your side daily as we fight for democracy.

The truth is that the newsletter suffers when I try to publish under less-than-ideal conditions. Readers complain (in a nice way) about the sound quality when I use my portable sound equipment (as I did yesterday). Limited bandwidth means fewer photos, and sometimes no audio. And, frankly, the newsletter’s content and style suffer when I begin writing at 10 p.m. after a long day of other activities.

So, I will be more transparent about when I am writing under less-than-ideal conditions, as was the case with yesterday’s newsletter. I didn’t think it was noteworthy to add that we were doing a two-day turnaround to our cabin, a 6.5-hour drive each way, to install a new water heater, which led to a later-than-usual newsletter written in less-than-optimal conditions. But now you know the context for my error.

But I also received a number of pointed emails that unexpectedly attacked me personally. One person compared me to “that greedy b*st*rd Jeff Bezos.” That comparison is entirely unfair. Although we are both follically challenged, I have WAY more hair than Bezos. And while Bezos may be more buff, he has a personal trainer on both of his yachts, while I only have a monthly gym membership that is free revenue for the gym.

It was disappointing to receive emails accusing me of switching to a paying subscriber model without any notice to readers. That would never happen; the newsletter will always be free, with a paid subscription optional. Other Substack writers regularly publish “Paid Subscriber Only” emails, which may be why readers of this newsletter were so quick to assume I had adopted the same model. I have not and will not.

Finally, there was an unexplained uptick in paid subscriptions on Tuesday, which I assume was from readers who incorrectly believed I had switched to a “paid subscriber only” format because of my mistake. I am going to refund those subscriptions; it will take a day or two because there is no easy way to reverse the subscriptions in a batch.

Thanks to everyone who reads the newsletter. As I said, we are on this journey together. I appreciate everyone’s support and everything you do to defend our democracy.

Opportunities for Reader Engagement

Livestream with Charles Booker, candidate for US Senate for Kentucky

I will host a livestream “meet and greet” with Charles Booker, who is running for the Democratic nomination for US Senate for Kentucky. The livestream will take place this Thursday, May 7, at 5:00 p.m. Pacific / 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

The livestream is open to all! Just tune in at the appointed time by navigating to Today’s Edition homepage (https://roberthubbell.substack.com) or by opening the Substack App. You will receive a notification when we go live!

Meet Charles Booker, here: Home - Charles Booker For U.S. Senate 2026. The Democratic Primary in Kentucky is May 19^th!

Concert in Los Angeles at El Rey Theater on May 12 to help win back the House.

Tuesday, May 12th at The El Rey Theater, join Blue Wave California, Swing Left, Women’s March Action and others for a powerful night of music and momentum to kick off the midterms and launch the fight to win back the House!

Featuring: Rufus Wainwright, Lisa Loeb, Iman Jordan, Laurence Juber, Richard T Bear, with Special Guests Jean Smart, Andy Richter, Allison Gill, Dana Goldberg, John Fugelsang and more!

This concert will bring together artists, activists, organizers, and voters to support the Blue Wave California Victory Fund and to ignite statewide momentum around flipping key congressional seats — the path to retaking the House.

Get your tickets at: www.bluewavecalifornia.org/concert

Concluding Thoughts

The media’s reporting around the wave of redistricting unleashed by the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais is confusing and unsettling. It is difficult to predict which gerrymandering efforts will go into effect in 2026, and which will go into effect in 2027 or thereafter. Moreover, all the gerrymandering efforts will be subject to litigation. Predicting the net change in presumptively “safe” seats created by the gerrymandering processes in half a dozen states is difficult, and ignores the one fact we can control—turnout.

Let’s focus on turnout as lawyers hash out the legality of gerrymandering efforts post-Callais. That said, I was pleasantly surprised by Marc Elias's comments on MS Now on Tuesday evening.

In an appearance on The Weeknight, Elias discussed the efforts by Florida to gerrymander four new “safe” Republican districts. Elias was confident that his law firm would be able to invalidate those new districts because Florida’s constitution prohibits partisan gerrymandering, which is the reason that Florida’s mapping expert cited for the boundary changes. See ‘Bolder, pro-voter’ agenda: Marc Elias demands aggressive counter to GOP voter suppression.

Lawyers are cautious in predicting outcomes, so Elias’s confidence in victory is an encouraging sign. Of course, no one can guarantee an outcome, so we must take Elias’s prediction in the spirit in which it was offered—a strong assurance but not an absolute guarantee.

Elias made another noteworthy comment in response to a question by host Michael Steele about the path to repairing the voting system after Democrats regain control. Elias said that Democrats must look beyond “repairing” the damage, and instead should focus on a “bolder, pro-voter agenda.”

I agree 100%! It is not enough to reverse the anti-voting decisions by the Supreme Court. We must enact the National Redistricting Reform Act and the Freedom to Vote Act, which will create a stronger, uniform system for establishing congressional districts and will prohibit gerrymandering—political and racial. If we can pass those two pieces of legislation, we can replicate and extend the protections of the Voting Rights Act to all Americans.

Of course, we must also expand the Supreme Court to prevent Alito, Thomas, Roberts et al. from invalidating the new voter protection legislation, as they did with the VRA.

We are experiencing a moment of maximum uncertainty and anxiety. But we can see the path forward to redemption in a single session of Congress. In political terms, that is lightspeed. We need only be bold enough to carry our convictions to fruition. All indications suggest that we are poised to do so! Keep up the good work!!

Talk to you tomorrow!

Pro-democracy Protest Photos

[Send to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Include city and state. If you can draft a short “caption,” that really helps me communicate the relevant facts!]

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The expat community in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico turned out for  No Kings Day3. Americans all over the world are protesting against Trump.

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Indivisible, OR. One of our weekly “honk & wave” street corner protests.

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Sunday Visibility Brigades in Saugerties NY.

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Providence RI. Folks really responded to this one. It would be funny if he weren’t the President!

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In front of Federal Building and across from mural of a young John Lewis in Rochester NY…

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Chandler, AZ every Tuesday morning Northbound  and Southbound 101 Visibility Bridge Brigade 😃🇺🇸

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In Pasadena, CA on the 210.

Ideally, we wouldn’t be so dependent on gas but the reality is that prices are soaring because of trump’s illegal war.

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Here are pictures of the blocks I submitted for the Democracy quilt organized by Martha Schirn.

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SOMA Action protest at Citizens Bank, a major lender in the sale of Roxbury, NJ warehouse to DHS/ICE for future detention center, in South Orange, NJ.

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5/2/25 West Hartford CT weekly last one!

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Pittsfield MA, John Sharaf Photography

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Badass Bridge Brigade banner drop in Silver Spring, MD, May 4th

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Our ballots arrived in the mail, a cause for celebration and a new bike bridge message over the Delta Highway in Eugene

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Wow! I did not see that coming. On Monday, the Supreme Court broke its own rules to allow the Callais decision to take immediate effect, a break with precedent that will allow Louisiana to expedite its racially gerrymandered maps in advance of the November midterms.

While I continue to believe we can minimize the effects of Callais in 2026 and 2028, it would be impossible to overstate the bad-faith, bare-knuckle, racist tactics adopted by the Supreme Court in its handling of the Callais decision. It is important to describe those tactics clearly so that we do not succumb to the temptation to adopt “incremental,” “institutionalist,” half-measures in reforming the Supreme Court.

But before describing those tactics, it is important to answer the question, “So what? What are we going to do about it?”

The Supreme Court is broken; it is a captive of the MAGA movement. Calling for “reform” understates the work necessary to restore its legitimacy. It must be stripped to its constitutional foundations and built anew. Justices Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett cannot be removed (which would require 68 votes in the Senate), so they must be overwhelmed by a new majority that will make quick work of reversing Callais, Dobbs, Citizens United, and other cases that must be relegated to the trash heap of history that contains the bones of Dred Scott, Korematsu, and Bradwell v. Illinois.

We must expand the Court in January 2029 by appointing 12 new justices (creating a Court of 21 justices) and pushing all nominees through the confirmation process in a month. Eradicate the filibuster. There is much work to be done, and we cannot afford a decade of 5-to-6 rulings that will surely follow if we wimp out and appoint 4 new justices because we are afraid of offending the tender sensibilities of MAGA.

The decision by the reactionary majority to accelerate the effectiveness of the ruling in Callais was the judicial equivalent of flipping the middle finger to Democrats, Black Voters, and pro-democracy advocates of every persuasion.

So, what happened?

Let’s start with the Roberts Court’s so-called Purcell Doctrine, which instructs that courts should not change rules close to an election. The Roberts Court has consistently applied the Purcell doctrine to delay the implementation of judicial victories by voting rights activists. But with Callais, the Court went out of its way to accelerate the release of the decision, ensuring that it was available two months before the final week of its term in June. (Major decisions are typically released the final week of June.)

When Louisiana canceled an in-process election to redraw its congressional district maps, the Callais decision was not yet final. Under normal operating procedure, Supreme Court decisions do not become “final” until 32 days (at least) after the opinion is issued. So, voting right activists opposed Louisiana’s efforts, in part, on the ground that the redistricting was premature because Callais was not final.

But the reactionary majority came to Louisiana’s rescue. For only the third time in 25 years, the Court granted immediate effect to the Callais decision, allowing Louisiana to change its maps before the November midterms. See Dissent of Justice Jackson, Callais v. Louisiana.

Justice Jackson wrote,

Not content to have decided the law, it now takes steps to influence its implementation. The Court’s decision to buck our usual practice under Rule 45.3 and issue the judgment forthwith is tantamount to an approval of Louisiana’s rush to pause the ongoing election in order to pass a new map. [¶[

The Court unshackles itself from [prior] constraints today and dives into the fray. And just like that, those principles give way to power. Because this abandon is unwarranted and unwise, respectfully, I dissent.

Justices Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch said that Justice Jackson’s dissent was “insulting”—which means they understood her point perfectly.

In a weak-sauce defense of his position, Alito claimed that it was unthinkable that voters would be forced to vote in an election with districts held to be unconstitutional. But as Steve Vladeck wrote on Monday, Alito had no problem in forcing Alabama voters to vote in elections with maps declared to be unlawful when that result benefited Republicans! See Steve Vladeck, One First (Substack), Two More Data Points for the Inconsistent Court.

The reactionary majority dismantled the Voting Rights Act by pretending that racism is a thing of the past in America—despite all evidence to the contrary. The reactionary majority is now allowing Louisiana to suspend an in-process election in violation of the Purcell Doctrine by exercising a remedy granted only three times in the last 25 years. The strong inference is that the reactionary majority was motivated by racial animus.

But neither history nor algorithmic gerrymandering dictates the results in the midterms. Case in point: Reader Len Lubinsky publishes a deeply researched Substack on US elections called Len’s Political Notes. Len posted the following in today’s Comment section:

I have taken a look at the Florida gerrymander (not yet signed by DeSantis). Of the four targeted Democrats intended to make Florida 24-4 instead of 20-8, not one is an automatic Republican win.

What’s more I have identified eight Florida seats currently held by Republicans that would not be immune to being flipped in a Democratic wave.

Despite the Callais decision, Democrats can and should maintain their sense of momentum. Len Lubinsky, Len’s Political Notes.

Len’s analysis of the Florida congressional races is here: Len’s Political Note #809 The Four Florida Districts Under Siege | Len’s Political Notes.

My point is not that Len is correct about the potential outcomes of the four seats in Florida. It is that Len is correct in saying the seats are contestable despite gerrymandering, so we must not succumb to defeatism.

We have seized the momentum. And Trump is doing his best to make things worse for Republicans every day. Read on!

Trump won’t say if the ceasefire is still in effect; tells Iran it will be “blown off the face of the Earth” if it attacks US Ships.

The so-called ceasefire hangs by a thread. It is so tenuous that Trump refuses to say if it is still in effect. See CNN, Trump declines to say whether US-Iran ceasefire is still in effect as Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate.

On Monday, Iran attacked the UAE with 19 missiles and drones, and the US sank seven small boats off the coast of Iran. Trump then poured gasoline on the conflagration by saying that Iran will be “blown off the face of the Earth” if it attacks US ships—which Iran reportedly did on Monday. See NBC News, U.S. says Iran launched missiles and drones at American ships, no vessels hit.

All of the above suggests that the US and Iran are on the brink of re-opening a war that has already inflicted global financial chaos and regional conflict. The war is becoming increasingly unpopular in the US by the day, and gas prices have broken the $7.00 barrier in California. More to the point, voters can draw a straight line between Trump’s actions and the increase in the price of gasoline and related products.

Trump is lying and out of touch, and voters know it.

Speaking to business leaders from across the country at an event in the East Room of the White House, Mr. Trump declared that slashing taxes and regulations had yielded “record business,” and that the economy was “roaring.” The White House described the Small Business Week event as highlighting “the extraordinary revival of Main Street under his America First agenda.”

See NYTimes, Trump Tries to Downplay Economic Effects of the Iran War.

The economy is “roaring” for billionaires and crypto day traders, but not so much for people raising families. Although Silicon Valley billionaires believe that “this will all be over soon,” experts in the consumer gasoline markets disagree. See The Bulwark, GasBuddy Expert Warns: This Oil Crisis Could Last Over a Year.

Trump has been using “happy talk” to convince voters that the war against Iran is going well and is almost over, but the facts on the ground suggest otherwise—unless Trump is willing simply to walk away with no meaningful concessions. In a particularly disturbing headline, Reuters reported that Iran’s ability to manufacture a nuclear bomb is essentially unchanged from a year ago. See Reuters, Exclusive: US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program, sources say.

There does not appear to be any easy way out of Trump’s war against Iran. That is a tragedy for all involved. But it will undoubtedly work to the political advantage of Democrats seeking to expand their margin of victory in 2026.

But my view has not changed: Turnout is a complete answer to voter suppression. While we should fight voter suppression in the courts and legislatures, we must not be distracted from the fact that the gerrymandering models used by political consultants assume that one-third of us will not vote

Let’s prove them wrong—and make this the biggest wave election ever!

A quick note to California voters.

I am being deluged by questions from California readers. The material sent by the Secretary of State urges voters to vote early. But recent developments suggest it is better to wait to see which Democratic candidate emerges as the front-runner, then vote for that candidate about a week before Election Day.

Last week, polls indicated that Tom Steyer had pulled into second place, with Republicans occupying slots one and four. But on Monday, a poll sponsored by the California Democratic Party showed that Xavier Becerra had surged into second place, and Steyer and moved into fourth.

Here’s my point: If the current rankings hold, and you voted for Steyer last week, your vote helps the Republican candidate who is bouncing between third and fourth place. Depriving the Democratic frontrunner of votes by supporting a Democrat in fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh place removes support from the Democratic frontrunner, and may boost the third / fourth place Republican into second place—thereby freezing Democrats out of the general election.

Polling is still very close, and the top four leaders are all within the margin of error (or just a point or two outside of that margin). Those facts suggest it is nearly impossible at this point to know which Democratic candidate to vote for to ensure that a Democrat makes it into the top-two general election runoff.

As I said two weeks ago, I am going to wait until a week before Election Day and then vote for the Democratic frontrunner. That strategy maximizes the chances of having a Democrat in the top-two general election.

Opportunities for Reader Engagement.

Reader Meeting in D.C. on Tuesday, May 12^th from 2pm to 4pm.

Jill and I will be in Washington D.C. on May 12 and invite readers to meet with us from 2:00 to 4:00 p.m. at the Omni Shoreham Hotel (in the Woodley Park neighborhood of D.C., near Rock Creek Park.)

The meeting is free (though you may need to take public transportation or pay for hotel parking).

We have rented an event space and have room for about 50 readers. Please sign up on this sheet: Reader Meeting in DC Sign Up Form.

Please note: Every guest must sign up individually so that we have an accurate count. Thanks! Jill and I look forward to meeting you in D.C.!

Livestream with Charles Booker, candidate for US Senate for Kentucky

I will host a livestream “meet and greet” with Charles Booker, who is running for the Democratic nomination for US Senate for Kentucky. The livestream will take place this Thursday, May 7, at 5:00 p.m. Pacific / 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

The livestream is open to all! Just tune in at the appointed time by navigating to Today’s Edition homepage (https://roberthubbell.substack.com) or by opening the Substack App. You will receive a notification when we go live!

Meet Charles Booker, here: Home - Charles Booker For U.S. Senate 2026. The Democratic Primary in Kentucky is May 19^th!

Concluding Thoughts

Although Justice Alito granted an administrative stay of the 5^th Circuit ruling that banned the mailing of Mifepristone, the timing of Alito’s action suggests that he was reluctantly dragged into granting the stay. Alito frequently acts within an hour or two when he is presented with a request for an administrative stay. In this case, he waited 48 hours before granting the stay, during which time patients and providers were adrift without any guidance from the Supreme Court. See Steve Vladeck’s analysis in One First (Substack), Two More Data Points for the Inconsistent Court.

The fact that Alito was forced into granting an administrative stay suggests that telehealth dispensing of Mifepristone is supported by at least five justices on the Supreme Court. But it appears to be a close question. The fact that five conservative Catholic men have control over the reproductive rights of all women in America is another reason that we must expand the Court, ASAP.

I do not mean to sound like a broken record on this subject. But the rights of tens of millions of Black voters and 140 million women are currently under the control of a handful of reactionary Republicans who have shaken the constraints of the Constitution. We must not delay in protecting their rights. If we miss the first opportunity to do so, it may be another 4, 8, or 12 years before we can do so again. We must act boldly to reclaim the ground lost under Trump.

Talk to you tomorrow!

Pro-Democracy Protest Photos

[Send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com. Please include city and state.]