Dueling visions of the economy--one of them "unserious"

September 26, 2024

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Competing visions of the economy

On Wednesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump promoted their competing visions of the economy under their prospective administrations. Their visions could not be more different.

Kamala Harris offered a principled vision focused on helping the middle class and small businesses. She pledged to protect Medicare and Social Security, lower prescription drug prices, spur the construction of new homes, cut red tape for businesses, and increase worker employment opportunities by removing the artificial barrier of a college degree for skills-based jobs. She proposed to pay for her proposals by restoring the corporate tax rate to its pre-2017 level and increasing the tax rate on families earning more than $400,000 per year. See, e.g., AP News, Harris is to make her capitalist pitch while Trump pushes deeper into populism.

After Kamala Harris’s speech, her campaign released a series of bullet points that highlighted many of her proposals. I include them below to help her supporters educate others who may (mistakenly) claim that VP Harris has not articulated specific economic policies. In addition, I highly recommend this six-minute video by Jennifer Rubin that summarizes the specific policy proposals laid out by Kamala Harris compared to the “unserious” proposals by Donald Trump. See Jennifer Rubin, Green Room, Why Kamala's Economic Message Beats Trump (youtube.com).

In her speech, Kamala Harris made the following proposals:

• Support domestic manufacturing in strategic industries through new America Forward tax credits (including small businesses)

• Double the number of registered apprenticeships in America and help promote meaningful pathways to jobs that don’t require 4-year degrees

• Stand up to countries like China when they threaten American workers by engaging in unfair trade practices

• Crack down on counterfeit and unsafe goods from China to protect American small businesses and consumers

• Invest in R&D for critical industries to ensure the United States maintains its lead

• Support American-made products by enforcing Buy America requirements

• Incentivize domestic processing of critical minerals for manufacturing

• Protect affordable health care premiums (that were lowered by an average of $800 a year for millions of Americans)

• Cap the cost of insulin at $35 for all Americans

• Cap out-of-pocket prescription drug costs at $2,000 a year for all Americans

• Lower prescription drug costs by accelerating Medicare price negotiations

• Relieve medical debt for millions of Americans

• Call on Congress to pass the first-ever federal ban on price gouging on food

• Invest in building resilient food supply chains

• Give small businesses, grocers, and growers the support they need, revitalizing a competitive marketplace to lower prices for consumers

The video of Kamala Harris’s speech to the Pittsburgh Economic Club is here: Vice President Kamala Harris on the Economy.

Kamala Harris later sat for an interview with Stephanie Ruhle of MSNBC that covered many of the same topics. The transcript of that interview is here: Transcript of Kamala Harris’ exclusive solo MSNBC interview.

In contrast to the specifics proposed by Kamala Harris, the unifying theme of Trump's economic vision is deporting ten million immigrants, which Trump promotes as a cure-all for home prices, energy costs, and the price of groceries. See, e.g., Opinion | Plan Beats No Plan - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Trump proposes to cut taxes for the wealthiest taxpayers while imposing a national sales tax on all Americans in the form of punitive tariffs. See Business Insider, Trump's Mass Deportation Plan Could Wreak Havoc on the Inflation Fight - Business Insider.

Trump spreads fairy dust on top of his incoherent economic vision by promising to cap interest rates on credit cards and to give free IVF treatments any American who asks for such j See, e.g., WaPo Editorial, The one thing worse than high credit card rates is Trump’s plan to cut them. (This article is accessible to all.)

Trump has also proposed to eliminate tax on Social Security—a plan that will benefit many wealthy Americans who do not need the tax cut and will not help lower income Americans who pay no tax. As with most of Trump's proposals, they are stealth tax cuts for the wealthy.

But at the core of Trump's effort to be reelected by promising free ponies to everyone is his proposal to extend his existing tax cut for millionaires and billionaires. When all of Trump's tax-giveaways are combined, they will cost a whopping $9.7 trillion dollars. See American Prospect, Trump’s Tax Cut-A-Rama Total So Far: $9.75 Trillion.

And his plan to pay for that whopping number is a national sales tax that will result in trade wars and cause a recession. See Fortune, (8/16/2024), Trump’s promised tariffs could spark trade war, inflation, expert warns.

Pollsters and pundits frequently say that the economy is the most important issue in the 2024 election. If that is true (and I do not believe it is), then the competing visions offered by the candidates on Wednesday should remove any doubt that Kamala Harris is the only rational choice for president in 2024.

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Congress passes three month continuing resolution on budget

An occurrence that used to be a big deal now happens almost without comment by the media. On Wednesday, the House passed a three-month continuing resolution with the majority party (Republicans) providing a minority of the votes needed for passage. As on two prior occasions, Democrats provided a majority of the votes necessary to pass a continuing resolution, even though Democrats are the minority party in the House. See The Hill, Senate sends bill to avert government shutdown to Biden's desk (thehill.com)

Prior to Mike Johnson’s election as Speaker, that almost never happened. Now, it is a regular occurrence—and Democrats are acting as the adult in the room. Democrats are well-positioned to take over control of the House in November—and can begin to impose regular order on House proceedings once again. It will be good to leave this nightmarish period of Republican non-rule in the House.

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Clearing up misconceptions about “certification” of election by Congress

I hear regularly from readers who are worried that Speaker Mike Johnson will prevent the “certification” of the electoral college ballots for the 2024 election. A headline on Wednesday in Talking Points Memo promoted another such email from a reader. See TPM, Now Mike Johnson Is Hedging On Whether The Election Will Be Certified.

Let me try to clear up the misimpression that Mike Johnson has any role in “certifying” the results of the 2024 election. He does not.

First, Congress will “count” (not “certify”) the electoral college ballots on January 6, 2025.

Hold that date firmly in mind: January 6, 2025.

Mike Johnson is Speaker of the 118th Congress, which ends on January 3, 2025, at 11:59 a.m.

When the 118th Congress ends on January 3, 2025, Mike Johnson’s role as Speaker terminates.

At 12:00 noon on January 3, 2025, the 119th Congress will begin, and its first act will be to elect a Speaker. The Clerk of the House serves as the Presiding Officer during the vote for Speaker. See CRS, Electing the Speaker of the House of Representatives: Frequently Asked Questions.  Democrats will likely have a majority in the 119th Congress and will elect Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker.

Three days later, on January 6, 2025, the electoral college ballots will be opened and counted in a joint session of Congress presided over by the President of the Senate—Vice President Kamala Harris (whose term does not end until January 20, 2025). Hakeem Jeffries will be the Speaker of the House when the electoral ballots are counted on January 6, 2025.

As you can see, Mike Johnson will NOT be Speaker of the House when the electoral college ballots are counted and he will NOT be presiding over the joint session of Congress on January 6, 2025—Kamala Harris will be presiding, regardless of who “wins” the election.

And to refute another conspiracy theory with no basis in fact, Mike Johnson cannot refuse to “swear in” newly elected members of Congress, thereby (allegedly) preventing a new Democratic majority from being seated for the count of electoral ballots. Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker when the 119th Congress begins at 12:00 noon on January 3, 2025, and cannot refuse to “swear in” newly elected members.

As noted above, the Clerk of the House serves as the presiding officer until a new Speaker is elected. “Members elect” of the 119th Congress will already have their “voting cards” issued to them by the Clerk so they can vote to elect the new Speaker. See CRS, The First Day of a New Congress: A Guide to Proceedings on the House Floor .

With that as background, I hope you can see why the TPM headline is misleading in suggesting that Mike Johnson has any role in “certifying” the count of electoral ballots on January 6, 2025. (“Now Mike Johnson Is Hedging On Whether The Election Will Be Certified.”) Mike Johnson will have no role in counting the electoral ballots other than as a member of Congress with a single vote on objections to the count.

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Opportunities for Reader engagement

Join me on Thursday, September 26, with Movement Voter Project

Join me, Mainers for Democracy and Movement Voter PAC Thursday, September 26th at 7:00 PM Eastern / 4:00 PM Pacific on Zoom, to generate much-needed support for local, grassroots organizations who can get out the vote for up- and down-ballot races. These groups are trusted messengers in their communities and live and work there year-round. I will be sharing more about the importance and need for local organizing to register and turn out voters in order to elect the right people at the state and national levels in defense of our rights and our democracy.

Register here for the Zoom link.

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Concluding Thoughts

I received the following email from a reader; it made me happy:

Hi, Robert! I volunteered to be a poll observer in PA.  I’m on my training tonight and there are over 500 people. This is one of a series. It’s gratifying to see so many getting involved.

We are in this together and #doingsomething.

We are not going back!

We frequently hear and read reports about the Republican Party recruiting thousands of poll observers. Such reports often imply that the Republican poll observers will intimidate or harass voters. See, e.g., NBC News (6/29/2024), GOP recruits poll monitors from suburban areas to monitor the vote in Democratic cities.

Per NBC

Republicans have made suburban areas a recruiting ground for their army of Election Day poll monitors, with plans to deploy some into urban, Democratic epicenters that have remained the focus of conservatives’ erroneous claims of voter fraud.

In fact, poll observers have been a long-standing, recognized position within the voting system. Poll watchers don’t intervene, they don’t enforce election laws, or settle voting disputes. They can lodge challenges with the election judge but cannot interact with voters. See The Brennan Center for Justice, Pennsylvania Election Observers: Rules and Constraints.

The Pennsylvania Democratic Party is recruiting poll observers, poll workers, and voter assistanc hotline volunteers. See Voter Protection - PA Democratic (padems.org). “Inside” poll observers and poll workers are subject to in-state residence and voting registration requirements, but hotline volunteers and “outside” poll observers are not. Check the website for further details.

Here's my point: The call for volunteers by Pennsylvania Democratic Party has been meet with a strong response—consistent with the strong volunteer response we have seen in grassroots and local Democratic Party organizations across the nation. That indication is a stronger signal than the noise of weaponized, inconsistent polling.

So, kudos to the reader for volunteering—and for setting an example that I urge other readers to follow! If we want free and fair elections, we must be willing to volunteer to protect the integrity of the election system on Election Day. You don’t have to volunteer in Pennsylvania. Check out your local Democratic Party organization; they will be glad to accept your help—and you will be glad you volunteered! A win-win situation.

Talk to you tomorrow!

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Daily Dose of Perspective

The Pacman nebula—second effort. The nebula is 9,200 light-years from Earth and is 41 lightyears in diameter. Enjoy!